AUGUST

OHIO WEATHER OBSERVERS NETWORK

http://sheridan.geog.kent.edu/owon

E-Mail: ssherid1@kent.edu

                    

    

           

 

Cincinnati 5NW (Ron Rothhaas) -  December had above normal temperatures and snowfall, but below normal liquid precipitation. The most interesting event of the month occurred as warm air flooded in on the 28th. At 0830 warm air was already flooding into the area and displacing cooler air which had been in place. The temperature here fell to 29F while at the same time it was 38F 9 miles south at the airport. Just an hour later the temperature at my location had jumped 20F to 49F on its way to a high of 63F which was also the high for the month.
 

Cleves 3NW (James Davis)December averaged out 0.8 degrees above normal and 1.38'' below normal in rainfall.

Kidron 1N (Ronald Hahn) -  December 2003 was a rather up and down month temperature wise, but averaged out slightly above normal.  Liquid precipitation was 0.32 inches below normal, but snowfall was more than 8 inches above the normal.  In fact, this was the 2nd snowiest December in my records here at Kidron 1N with 15.10 inches.  The snowiest December was in 1974 with 21.90 inches.  Yearly rain was 45.05 inches, 6.09 inches above normal.
 

Ottawa 4E (Phil and Bonnie Higley) Month started out close to normal it try to stay there, but it didn't. It warm right up, then cool right back down.  Up & Down with the temperature as the jet stream did too. We ended up with a WHITE Christmas, just with a Tr. of snow on the ground. Then right back up in the air temperature. By the end of the month we were at 55F. No wonder a lot of people were sick. Up & Down with temperature & the jet stream too.

Perrysville 4W (Katie Gerwig)  -  Temperatures were near normal and precipitation normal and slightly above.  Measurable snow cover on 12 days.  Snow fell on 6 days.

Ravenna 1E (Rich Rabatin)  Above normal temps at this station.  From Dec. 16 to the 20, and again on the 25th, my anemometer was frozen.

Ravenna 1SE (Gary Locke)  December 2003 was generally uneventful other than two significant snowfalls. The first was on 12/5/03 (7") and the second on 12/19/03 (5"). The most consecutive days on snow on the ground was 5 - from 12/17 to 12/21/03. I only had 4 consecutive days of temperatures below freezing - 12/17 to 12/20/03.
 

Springfield (Dick Groeber) The temperatures were warmest at the beginning and the end of the month.  The highest reading was on the 28th at 60 The coolest readings were in the middle, with a low of 18 on the 14th.  Precipitation of both rain and snow fell on 14 dates, with the greatest of 0.58 inches with a cold frontal passage on the 29th.  There were five dates of measurable snowfall totaling 5 inches.  The greatest was in the middle of the month on the 14th with 2.2 inches.

Thompson 5SW (Vance Lunn) The basic weather pattern for the month consisted of seasonable cold spells alternating with mild spells of 2 to 4 days each. Significant snow events occurred during each of the cold periods. The highlight event occurred from the 17th-20th with 22.6 inches of snow. Other significant snow events were 8.0 inches on the 11th-12th, 7.9 inches on the 5th, and 7.7 inches from the 23rd-26th. The significant liquid equivelent precipitation amounts occured during the large snow events. Maximum snow depth was 17 inches (18), and the minimum snow depth was a trace (11, 30-31).

Wooster 7N (Jack Sisler) December was fairly normal other than being a snowy month. Mean temperatures were about two degrees above normal with a record low of 7 degrees on the 8th breaking the previous record of 12 degrees set in 1995. Precipitation was slightly above normal for the month putting the year at more than two inches above normal (37.84"). This put an end to a six year deficit of almost 24 inches from 1997 thru 2002.


 

         

          

           

OWON # Station Mean Max Temp Mean Min Temp Mean Temp High Temp Date Low Temp Date Total Prec Max 24hr Prec Date

#

Prec Days

Total Snow Max 24hr Snow Date #  1"+ Snow Days Max Wind Gust Date
119 Akron 1W 38.0 27.0 32.4 55.0 28th 17.0 8th 2.72 0.52 5th 18 17.9 6.8 5th 5 30 1st
A Akron-Canton 37.0 25.3 31.2 53.0 29th 14.0 13th 2.91 0.57 23-24 17 18.6 6.5 5th 6 39 1st
107 Brookville 39.6 27.3 33.3 59.0 28th 18.0 13th 2.35 0.56 29th 11 3.8 2.2 14th 2 30 1st
82 Centerville 1W 40.0 26.8 33.4 32.0 28th 15.0 15th 2.84 0.46 10,23 13 4.2 2.5 14th 2 30 23rd
A Cincinnati 41.9 28.1 35.0 61.0 28th 13.0 20th 2.26 0.58 29th 10 6.1 3.0 14th 3 37 1st
13 Cincinnati 5NW 43.6 28.5 36.0 63.0 28th 17.0 20th 2.24 0.54 29th 12 6.7 3.0 14th 3 -- --
A Cleveland 38.9 28.3 33.6 53.0 28th 19.0 13th 4.01 0.73 22-23 18 26.6 5.9 5th 7 44 1st
55 Cleves 3NW 43.1 28.0 35.5 62.0 28th 17.0 9th 2.44 0.65 29th 14 5.5 3.0 13-14 2 28 23rd
A Columbus 39.8 27.7 33.8 57.0 28,29 18.0 13th 2.78 0.72 10th 15 6.3 2.1 14th 3 36 1st
A Dayton 39.2 26.7 33.0 59.0 28th 17.0 13th 2.44 0.64 29th 13 3.2 2.1 14th 1 33 1,29,30
22 Kent 2E 38.4 25.2 31.8 56.0 28th 11.0 8th 2.99 0.51 30th 19 23.1 8.1 5th 5 21 30th
2 Kidron 1N 38.7 26.1 32.4 57.0 28th 12.0 8th 2.46 0.54 23rd 13 15.1 4.5 5th 5 32 31st
87 Lagrange 2SW 39.2 25.8 32.5 54.0 28th 16.0 7,8,13 3.07 0.64 5th 15 18.1 6.4 5th 5 36 1st
23 Lodi 2S 37.5 25.2 31.5 53.0 28th 13.0 8th 3.21 0.81 23rd 17 15.1 5.4 5th 4 36 1st
A Mansfield 36.4 25.2 30.8 53.0 28th 14.0 13th 3.27 0.61 29-30 16 23.3 7.5 5th 5 38 21st
51 Middleburg Heights  2N -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 3.35 0.62 23rd 19 23.0 4.0 14th 9 -- --
25 Munroe Falls 1SW 36.9 25.2 31.0 54.0 29th 12.0 8th 3.49 0.62 24th 17 27.5 8.0 6th 10 -- --
106 Newcomerstown 1S 40.1 24.9 32.5 60.0 28th 13.0 13th 3.11 0.61 16th 15 6.6 3.0 20-21 3 34 1st
32 North Ridgeville 1N 40.3 27.7 34.0 56.0 28th 17.0 8th 3.34 0.61 5th 19 19.2 4.1 14th 8 31 17th
15 Ottawa 4E 38.1 26.1 32.1 55.0 28th 9.0 7th 3.00 1.17 23rd 16 6.0 4.0 5th 2 39 16th
38 Perry 38.3 28.7 33.5 54.0 29th 21.0 20th 3.59 0.61 23rd 15 16.8 3.0 5,25 7 -- --
79 Perrysville 4W 38.5 25.7 32.1 47.0 10,30 13.0 13th 3.10 0.75 23rd 8 12.1 3.8 5th 4 -- --
101 Ravenna 1E 39.3 28.6 33.9 54.0 28,29 19.0 8th 1.90 0.56 23rd 15 15.5 5.5 5th 5 30 2nd
121 Ravenna 1SE 37.4 22.6 30.0 54.0 28th 12.0 7th 2.84 0.59 23rd 17 18.7 7.0 5th 7 -- --
  Rockbridge 4W 39.8 25.8 32.8 59.0 28th 17.0 13,21 3.51 0.72 10th 8 11.5 3.7 14th 4 -- --
51 Sabina -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1.72 0.34 29th 11 -- - -- -- -- --
43 Sharonville 2NE 43.3 29.2 35.9 64.0 28th 20 20th 2.07 0.50 29th 14 5.3 2.5 14th 3 29 29th
1 Springfield 40.0 27.0 35.0 60.0 28th 18.0 14th 2.57 0.58 29th 14 5.0 3.0 14th 2 31 1,30
112 Sugarcreek 2SW 39.3 25.9 32.6 58.0 28th 12.0 8th 3.09 0.75 5th 15 13.0 5.5 5th 4 26 1,31
98 Thompson 5SW 36.5 25.0 30.8 52.0 28th 11.0 13th 4.45 0.62 18th 22 54.9 13.8 17-18 10 -- --
117 Tiltonsville 42.3 27.8 34.5 64.0 29th 18.0 13th 3.27 0.83 14th 21 12.2 6.2 14th 4 32 1st
A Toledo 38.0 25.6 31.8 50.0 29th 12.0 13th 3.25 0.85 22-23 12 9.3 2.5 25th 4 38 31st
16 Wooster 7N 37.7 25.2 31.5 53.0 28th 8.0 7th 2.66 0.62 5th 20 17.4 5.4 5th 5 39 1st
A Youngstown 37.8 25.5 31.7 56.0 28th 16.0 13th 2.64 0.76 27-28 19 19.2 4.2 5th 7 46 1st
OWON # Station Mean Max Temp Mean Min Temp Mean Temp High Temp Date Low Temp Date Total Prec Max 24hr Prec Date

#

Prec Days

Total Snow Max 24hr Snow Date #  1"+ Snow Days Max Wind Gust Date

A = Airport         

            

                         

Date: Mon Dec 1, 2003 6:07 am

Subject: November's Weather Statistics for Centerville 1W

 

Weather statistics for the month of November for Centerville 1W.

High Temp (Date) ... 78 / 2nd

Low Temp (Date) ... 22 / 9th

Mean High ... 56.1

Mean Low ... 38.2

Monthly Mean ... 47.1

Total Precipitation ... 4.02"

Max 24 hr Precipitation (Date) ... 1.01" / 12th

Number of Precipitation Days... 13

Total Snowfall... 0.1"

Max 24 hr Snowfall (Date) ... 0.1" / 29th

Max Snow Depth at time of observation ... 0"

High Wind Gust (Date) ... 46 MPH / 12th

Thunderstorm Days ... 0

Highest Barometer (Date) ... 30.71" / 9th

Lowest Barometer (Date) ... 29.56" / 19th

Average High Wind Gust... 19.6 MPH

Year To Date Precipitation . 44.03"

10.31" Above Normal

 

Robert Flory - KA5RUC

Centerville 1W

Southeast Montgomery County

Ohio Weather Observer Network #82

Wilmington NWS Skywarn ID OMT405

 

Date: Mon Dec 1, 2003 10:27 am

Subject: November 2003 Review

 

Average high was 55.7 or 5.6 above normal

Average low was 35.0 or 1.9 above normal

Mean temperature was 45.3 or 3.2 above normal

Rainfall was 2.61" or 0.43" below normal

Snowfall was 1.3" or 0.1" below normal

Maximum pressure was 30.68" on the 9'th

Minimum pressure was 29.52" on the 19'th

Average high wind gust was 19.8 mph

Windiest day was the 13'th with an average wind speed of 10.9 mph. Average wind speed

for the month was 3.5 mph. Heating degree days totaled 588.7. There were six record

high's either tied or broken and two record lows tied or broken.

 

Don Keating #106

Newcomerstown 1S

 

Date: Mon Dec 1, 2003 7:54 pm

Subject: November 2003 Data for Ravenna 1SE

 

List:

Here are the numbers for Ravenna 1SE for the month of November:

Mean High Temp: 54.73

Mean Low Temp: 34.70

Mean Temp: 44.72

Highest Temp: 82 (11/4/03)

Lowest Temp: 18 (11/9/03)

Total Rainfall: 3.27

Hi 24 Hr Rainfall: 1.07 (11/28/03)

Total Snowfall: 4.00

Hi 24 Hr. Snowfall: 4.00 (11/28/03)

Precip Days: 13

T-Storm Days: 0

Note Temperature Differential of 64 degrees between highest and lowest reading of month! As of this

writing we have no snow on ground.

 

Gary Locke

Ravenna 1SE

OWON #120

Cleveland Skywarn #133-037

 

From: "Phillip Higley" <phigley@bright.net>

Date: Tue Dec 2, 2003 10:14 am

Subject: monthly report's

 

Ave. Max.: 54.1F

Ave. Minn.: 36F

Ave. Temp.: 45.1F

Highest was 77F on the 4th

Lowest was 17F on the 9th

Precip.: 2.47" / 24 hr. 0.87" on the 27th

Snowfall Tr./ 24 hr. Tr.

Wind Gust 55 M.P.H. on the 12th

4-E

Putnam, Co.

 

Date: Tue Dec 2, 2003 7:57 pm

Subject: Upcoming Weather Event

 

Group:

 

Some preliminary indications could produce some interesting weather

by late Thursday into Friday. Although some of the models have a

surface low approaching from a few different directions, they do

indicate the low will be somewhere over southwest Ohio by Friday

morning.

 

The surface pressure doesn't appear to be extreme (1012 mb or 29.88")

by the time it gets over southwest Ohio Friday morning. The models

continue to take the Low off the Virginia coast by Saturday morning

with some deepening. This low, according to some of the models,

appears to have more of the characteristics of a "Delta" low than

the "Panhandle Hook" with the low being over northern Lousiana late

Wednesday.

 

With the low being that close and taking that kind of track it will

be difficult forecasting precipitation types. Colder air should be in

place in most areas but if there is any overrunning and the low

tracks a little more west than expected it could be different.

 

At this point, I'll say all snow in the northern third, a mix in the

central third, and an all rain event in the southern third. Wouldn't

be surprised to see some watches go up by late tomorrow.

 

Other predictions or comments?

 

Jack

Wooster 7N

 

Date: Thu Dec 4, 2003 12:36 am

Subject: My best 'guess'

 

Hello;

Looking at the 10 p.m. surface map, there is a 1017mb surface low centered over northern LA. A high pressure is

located to the NE of there with a central pressure of 1037mb. My best guess is that the low over LA will travel in a

general easterly direction, taking the surface low over MS, AL and into GA. I don't think alot of precip with this low

pressure system will affect us here in eastern Ohio. However, another surface low might develop over the midwest

in the next 12 to 24 hours. It may affect us alot more. We'll see.

I've been wrong before, and might be this time. It is interesting though, to see how close we can get to predicting

these storm tracks.

 

Don Keating #106

Newcomerstown 1S

 

Date: Fri Dec 5, 2003 11:12 am

Subject: Precipitation Thus Far...

 

Hi List;

Rainfall here in Newcomerstown has amounted to 0.21" as of 11:15 a.m. for this event. Snowfall has amounted to

ZERO.

 

Don Keating #106

Newcomerstown 1S

 

Date: Fri Dec 5, 2003 1:16 pm

Subject: Re: Precipitation Thus Far...

 

Don and Group:

 

As of 10 a.m. this morning I measured 1.8" of snow. Things started

out with freezing rain/drizzle having had a glaze over the windshield

under the snow after the changeover. Over the past hour it's been

kind of a mix but mostly light snow.

 

I think once the low to the southwest of us moves further east you'll

start to see a changeover. I'm thinking you might become more

effected by the storm beginning to intensify off the east coast.

 

Roads were a little tricky this morning but nothing too extreme.

Everybody has to learn how to drive in this stuff again.

 

Jack

Wooster 7N

Wayne County

 

From: "Phillip Higley" <phigley@bright.net>

Date: Fri Dec 5, 2003 1:42 pm

Subject: report on snowfall

 

The snow started to early this morning, with a mix bag, then by 5 p.m. it was pretty well all snow. At 1:37

p.m. it's still coming down & we have 0.12"/close to 1.8" of snow on the ground now......

The air temperature is 32F, which has drop off such 9:32 a.m., which we had 32F for our low. The baro. is

fall from 29.65F.01 & the winds are out of the NNE @ 13 M.P.H.. The main road's isn't bad, it the back

roads you really have to look out for........ They are still snow cover.

4-E

Putnam, Co.

 

Date: Fri Dec 5, 2003 3:37 pm

Subject: Snow Update

 

Group:

 

Snowfall has really increased in intensity since 2 p.m. As of 3:30 I

have close to five inches with moderate snow. All the roads are

completely snow covered and slippery. Wayne County was just upgraded

to a winter storm warning from a snow advisory a short time ago.

 

Jack

Wooster 7N

Wayne County

 

Date: Fri Dec 5, 2003 7:18 pm

Subject: Snowfall Totals - Ravenna 1SE

 

Friday Snowfall totals thru 6 PM for Ravenna 1SE:

At 6 AM this morning Ravenna 1SE had a trace of snow on the ground with light snow falling. I measured

0.02" of liquid precipitation.

As of 6 PM this evening we had accumulated 6" of snow and moderate snow was falling. My liquid precip

measured 0.32" but I am somewhat suspect of that amount since the snow was packed on top of my 4"

rain gauge. To my knowledge, the entire event here from the beginning was snow, with no mix. Main and

secondary roads are snow covered, slippery and fairly hazardous. Would not be suprised to see some

tree branches and power lines come down due to the heavy snow.

 

Gary Locke

Ravenna 1SE

 

Date: Fri Dec 5, 2003 8:25 pm

Subject: Snowfall at Lodi 2S

 

Group:

 

Snowfall for the 24-hour period ending at 6 PM EST was 5.3 inches at

Lodi 2S. Light snow was falling at the time of observation (6 PM).

 

Matt Higgins

Lodi 2S

Medina/Wayne County Border

 

Date: Fri Dec 5, 2003 9:25 pm

Subject: Message from a 2way device

 

List, We missed the snow completly here in

Springfield. It was all rain and wetsnow as it ended. The totals: 12-04-03 @

.14

inches and 12-05-03 @ .44 inches. Temperatures were between 35 and 40 the

entire

time. Dick Groeber

 

Date: Sat Dec 6, 2003 1:33 am

Subject: lake's effect on snow

 

It is interesting to note the effect that Lake Erie is having on the snow along the lakeshore from Lucas County to

Erie County. I watched a Toledo TV station at 6 PM and it showed a graphic of snowfall accumulations. They were

lower along the lakeshore in Lucas and Ottawa counties. The east wind turned some of the snow to rain.

Meanwhile, in Erie County on Friday (daytime) it snowed. But tonight when the wind backed to NE, the

precipitation in Erie County (in Huron) has changed to rain.

Shawn Trueman

Huron (10 miles ESE of Sandusky)

 

From: "Phillip Higley" <phigley@bright.net>

Date: Sat Dec 6, 2003 7:39 am

Subject: report on snow fall

 

4.00" here @ my reporting station as of 9:30 p.m. Friday night. 0.80" in preicp..

Now at 7:36 a.m. it's 26F with a Rising baro. @ 30.06 0.01"

4-E

Putnam, Co.

 

Date: Sat Dec 6, 2003 1:29 pm

Subject: Storm Total - Ravenna 1SE

 

List:

Between 6PM Friday and 6AM Saturday, I measured only 1" more of snow for a storm total of 7".

Gary Locke

Ravenna 1SE

 

Date: Sun Dec 7, 2003 10:40 am

Subject: Re: lake's effect on snow

 

I was in Mentor much of that afternoon, and while it seemed to be

snow much if not all of the day, the temp. there was 34 (I measured

it with a zipper thermometer while I hiked to the lakeshore) for

about the whole system so the snow had trouble accumulating. Also,

with the temperature so near freezing for the whole event, elavation

played a key role. Snow depth were as little as a trace in the

valleys and 3 to 4 inches on the hill tops a few hundred feet higher.

At Thompson 5 SW, even higher and farther from the Lake, I had 8

inches of snow depth (I could reach areas where only a trace

accumulated in a 10 minute drive).

 

Vance

 

Date: Mon Dec 8, 2003 6:42 pm

Subject: Record Low/Flooding Potential

 

Group:

 

I had just enough clearing for a few hours very early this morning

along with the snow cover to have the temperature drop to a record

low of 7 degrees that broke the previous low of 12 degrees for the

date set in 1995.

 

Looking at this mornings models for Wednesday makes me wonder if

those of us who had appreciable snowfall over the weekend may have

some flooding come Wednesday. Precipitation amounts appear to be all

liquid but in the .50" to.75" range. Between the liquid content of

the snow and some freezing rain preceeding the snow during the

weekend and what may fall Wednesday and Wednesday night I wonder.

 

Even though it's still too far out we may have another storm to

contend with late next weekend or the first part of next week. Tis

the season.

 

Jack

Wooster 7N

 

Date: Mon Dec 8, 2003 7:49 pm

Subject: December 20'th to 23'rd Forecast ... Irresponsible?

 

Hello List;

I only bring this up because I have heard another forecaster on Columbus TV make a prediction of a snow storm and

a major outbreak of cold air. The way I see it, that is a full two weeks from now. In my own personal opinion, I

think this is pretty unrealistic of a TV meteorologist to make predictions like that, so far in advance! Patterns change

quite often this time of the year. Whatever happened to TV forecasters just sticking to a 5 day forecast, instead of

sticking their necks out on the line with such forecasts? Wish I were being paid the wages they are to speculate and

'wish' for that kind of weather two weeks in advance.

Don Keating

 

Date: Mon Dec 8, 2003 8:16 pm

Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Record Low/Flooding Potential

 

Jack and List:

I had a low of 12 this morning. By the way, did anyone go to the AMS Xmas dinner? I thought maybe they

would cancel it given the weather. I just live about 6 miles away and I chickened out due to the snow.

Gary L

Ravenna 1SE

 

Date: Mon Dec 8, 2003 9:15 pm

Subject: Re: December 20'th to 23'rd Forecast ... Irresponsible?

 

Nothing wrong with stating possibilities, so long as it is made clear

that they are only possibilities. This pattern seems primed for a

lot of storminess, with the storm this week, a storm possible at the

end of the weekend, and even more possible after that. Anything can

happen, and giving a head's up over it doesn't seem irresponsible to

me. I think it just depends on what was said. I have always

appreciated forecasters who gave possibilities more than just stating

the inevitable next 24 hours (which in the weather can even be

unpredictable).

 

Jon

 

Date: Tue Dec 9, 2003 6:11 pm

Subject: Re: December 20'th to 23'rd Forecast ... Irresponsible?

 

All, my two cents worth,

 

It is absolutely irresponsible to be forecasting anything but climatology 10-

14

days ahead. Meteorologists are always looking for the next "big storm" but

speculating about a model 10 days out is ridiculous.

 

The NWS started doing a 7 day forecast a couple of years ago and I can tell

you

with certainty that there is virtually no skill in the models on the 7th day

beyond climatology or dumb luck or maybe the long wave pattern.

 

To try and forecast specific weather much beyond that is misleading because

any

mention of a forecast that far out is an attempt to lend credibility to an

absolute guess which is exactly opposite of what meteorologists are supposed

to

be doing. If it is said in the context of your forecast presentation or

newscast

then there are people that will take it as a forecast. This kind of stuff

kills

our reputation and credibility as forecasters.

 

That being said (from the soapbox), it is fun to watch these model storms and

speculate what may happen. In a forum like this I think it is OK. I start to

get

interested when I see continuity from run to run and when both the GFS and

European are similar, but again, not until you get within about 7 days.

 

Jim Kosarik, NWS Cleveland

 

Date: Tue Dec 9, 2003 7:53 pm

Subject: Re: December 20'th to 23'rd Forecast ... Irresponsible?

 

Don, Jon and Group:

 

The only right reason I can think of for that Columbus forecaster to

make such a irresponsible forecast is that their in a "ratings war"

and their at the bottom of the list.

 

I have never seen a five day forecast, let alone a forecast two weeks

out, that wasn't changed. There's a big difference

between "possibilities" and "probabilities". I know for a fact that

the majority of meteorologists, including broadcast meteorologists,

I've heard say that even forecasting seven days out is subject to

great change. How many times have you seen model runs completely

change from one run to the next in 12 hours? I lost count.

 

I guess if that particular station is only looking for a lot of hype

that's fine. But if he keeps making the wrong calls with that type of

forecasting they'll (the station) will be losing customers (viewers).

 

Just my view. Good topic of discussion. Other views?

 

Jack

Wooster 7N

 

Date: Tue Dec 9, 2003 9:00 pm

Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Re: December 20'th to 23'rd Forecast ... Irresponsible?

 

Group:

Not the expert that some are, but my own opinion is that the long range stuff in the winter (or any time) is

not much more than a wild guess. Given some of the recent discussions about the storm last week and

as we all know how the exact track of the storm and other factors dictate whether we get rain, snow, etc.,

I don't see how much more than 12-24 hours out can get you anything real precise. I would tend to agree

with Jim K. that it may make for interesting conversation among our group but to the guy on the street,

such wrong forecasts tend to cause the weather professionals to lose some credibility. When you

consider the technology available today, the percentages 12 to 72 hours out must be much more

accurate than 20 years ago. But how often do you hear people say that they don't put much stock in what

the "weatherman" says. I suspect its the long range stuff and what appears to be the lack of knowledge of

the broadcast weather folks or their bosses telling them to hype it up. Lets face it, at this time of year,

"good" weather is hard to find. Just my opinion.

Gary L

Ravenna 1SE

 

Date: Tue Dec 9, 2003 9:09 pm

Subject: Message from a 2way device

 

List, Here's a question of a different

nature. Will there be flooding after a dryspell with a

quick heavy rainfall? Dick Groeber.

 

Date: Sun Dec 14, 2003 9:17 am

Subject: Message from a 2way device

 

List, From Springfield, Ohio.

Snow total from 6:30 p.m. saturday 12-13-03 to 7:30 a.m. sunday 12-14-03

was 2 inches melted to .17 inches of water.

Dick Groeber.

 

Date: Sun Dec 14, 2003 9:27 am

Subject: Snowfall thru Sunday Morning

 

List:

My snowfall total for the 24 hr period ending at 7 AM Sunday morning was 2.2 " with the same amount of

snow on the ground. This snow fell late Saturday evening - Sunday morning. We only received a trace

from Friday's snowfall. Liquid precip measured 0.15". As of 8 AM it was still snowing somewhere between

light and moderately in Ravenna.

Gary Locke

Ravenna 1SE

 

Date: Sun Dec 14, 2003 9:35 am

Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Snowfall thru Sunday Morning

 

Gary and list,

I have the identical snowfall amount of 2.2 inches for that same period

of time. AND I also had the identical liquid precipitation of 0.15

inch. Observation taken at 7 am today for past 12 hours. Moderate

snow continues as of 9:30 am

 

Larry Huff

Munroe Falls 1SW

Summit County

 

Date: Sun Dec 14, 2003 11:19 am

Subject: Re: Snowfall thru Sunday Morning

 

Received 2" of snowfall here. Melted down to .20". The snow here has

an interesting composition. The temp has risen since it started to

snow near 12:00AM from 26 to now 32. The snow is much "drier" and

"finner" on the bottom and much more wet at the surface.

 

Chris

Lancaster 3N

 

Date: Sun Dec 14, 2003 12:52 pm

Subject: Snowfall report ... Newcomerstown

 

Snowfall in Newcomerstown has been 2.4". I will have liquid content later.

Don Keating #106

Newcomerstown 1S

 

Date: Sun Dec 14, 2003 5:59 pm

Subject: Message from a 2way device

 

List, Snow total for Springfield is 2.5

inches melted to .21 inches water to 6 p.m.

Dick Groeber.

 

Date: Sun Dec 14, 2003 7:25 pm

Subject: Snowfall

 

Group:

 

Total snowfall as of 6 p.m. for the past 24 hours has been 4.1".

Roads here were a mess this morning but were then cleared only to be

lightly snow covered again this evening from snow showers late this

afternoon and this evening.

 

Jack

Wooster 7N

 

Date: Wed Dec 17, 2003 8:25 pm

Subject: Christmas Eve Indications

 

Group:

 

The 12z GFS model from this morning was showing indications of a 1003

mb low over southern Illinois with precipitation falling over Ohio as

rain and not snow with temperatures in the 40's and 50's. The

freezing isotherm was almost all the way up into Canada.

 

I realize it's still too early and things will change but it's

interesting to see what changes might take place between now and then.

 

Jack

Wooster 7N

 

Date: Wed Dec 17, 2003 8:25 pm

Subject: Heavy Snow

 

Group,

5" of snow has fallen here since 6:00 PM. It is now 8:17PM It continues

to snow heavily. At about 7:00, thunder and lightning occurred.

 

Doug

 

Date: Wed Dec 17, 2003 8:32 pm

Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Christmas Eve Indications

 

Jack;

I agree. I think it's too early, but every day I look at the 10 day outlook on Unisys, it continues to

show a deepening low over the mid-west with us on the eastern side of the low. Like I said a week

ago when the Columbus TV forecaster predicted a "good chance" of a white Christmas, it's not a

good thing to predict that far in advance. Looks more and more like that forecaster was a bit off,

to say the least. For now, I'm just bundling up for the next several days of below normal

temperatures, again. Yesterdays high of 50 sure was nice!

Don Keating

 

From: "Doug Brady" <bradydw@hotmail.com>

Date: Wed Dec 17, 2003 8:42 pm

Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Christmas Eve Indications

 

The new ECMWF model, just out, indicates a much colder solution than the

GFS. It indicates a 1006 millibar low over Alpena Michigan at 12z Christmas

Eve. If the low is this far north, northern stream energy would have phased

with southern stream energy which should result in colder air being drawn

into the system. Also, notice the closed 500 mb low centered near Chicago

at the same time. Check it out:

 

http://www.sca.uqam.ca/models/ecmwf_amer/cep00_9panel.gif

 

Of course as you say, it is still a long way off.................

 

 

Date: Wed Dec 17, 2003 8:44 pm

Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Christmas Eve Indications

 

Jack,Don,

I have to agree with Jack about the temps. on

Christmas Eve. I was looking at the 180 hrs GFS. map

on the NCAR-RAP web site. It shows temps at least in

the 40's with rain. But in Indiana, it shows snow

with a 976 Mb. low. SO it looks wet and windy, but as

we all know, anything can happen and 180 hrs. out is

playing a long shot.

 

Rich Rabatin

Ravenna 1E

Portage County

 

Date: Wed Dec 17, 2003 8:47 pm

Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Heavy Snow

 

Don,

I'm in Hambden Township (Chardon 3NE). It is still snowing heavily. My

guess is that another inch to inch and a half has fallen since. It hasn't

snowed this heavily for quite some time. I may go out and measure again in

a couple hours just to satisfy my curiosity......

Doug

 

Date: Wed Dec 17, 2003 10:27 pm

Subject: Heavy Snow Continues

 

Group,

4.3" more snow fell between 8:17PM and 10:15 PM. There is 10" on the

ground now...9.3" of which feel between 6:00 PM and 10:15 PM. Snow

continues to fall heavily...little or no wind, 26 degrees.

Doug

 

From: "J S" <luckej@hotmail.com>

Date: Wed Dec 17, 2003 10:49 pm

Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Christmas Eve Indications

 

It's interesting that so many people and forecasting services seem to be

relying on the GFS for temps over a week away. Temps here in Columbus have

been busting on the warm side sometimes by a catergory+. If same day temps

can bust, so can temps over a week away. Not to say it will snow, but

plenty can change between now and then.

 

Date: Thu Dec 18, 2003 4:14 pm

Subject: Message from a 2way device

 

List, The latest prog from the N.W.S. for 7

a.m. Dec. 24, 2004 shows 1008 mb. low over nw Oh w/cold front through eOh.

High,

1023 mb., over plains. Looks like snow for Christmas afterall!

Dick Groeber.

 

Date: Fri Dec 19, 2003 9:21 am

Subject: snow and forecasts

 

Thank God for snow blowers!! We've had 19.1" of snow since this

thing started (as of 9am this morning the 19th), and are forcasted to

perhaps get that again before this thing ends, and speaking of

forcasts:

 

1. We will get a white Christmas here at Thompson 5 SW even if it

does get warmer as predicted and that event comes as rain.

Especially if we get what is forcasted for the next couple of days,

 

2. Jim, you guys over there at the ol, NWS are getting rather gutsy

giving numerical percentages on precip. probabilities seven days

out. Also, I've not seen the word "widespread" used in a forecast

(esp. seven days out) before. Does that mean that you are expecting

a truly giant (in areal coverage) synoptic system?

 

Vance

Thompson 5 SW

OWON # 98

 

Date: Fri Dec 19, 2003 6:55 pm

Subject: Ravenna 1SE Snow

 

List:

Been away from the ol computer for a few days but had about an inch of snow Thursday morning and

about another inch as of this morning. Did not get much of anything during the day on Friday but as of

6:30 PM Friday evening we were gettting a fairly healthy snow shower. Has anyone noticed that we seem

to be getting a decent shot of snow in one place or another just about every Friday since Thanksgiving? A

pattern?

Gary L

Ravenna 1SE

 

Date: Sat Dec 20, 2003 1:18 pm

Subject: Ravenna 1SE Snowfall

 

List:

As of 7 AM Saturday morning I had received 5" of snow in the last 24 hrs. Most of it came after 5:30 PM

Friday. This gave me a total of 7" on the ground. It was still snowing light to moderately at times through

the morning up until about 11 AM Saturday.

Gary Locke

Ravenna 1SE

 

Date: Sat Dec 20, 2003 5:28 pm

Subject: Snow or No Snow?

 

Group:

 

While looking at todays models and comparing them to a few days ago I

still don't see indications of a big snow event between now and

Christmas Day. A mainly rain event still looks to be in place. If

anything much has changed with the models since a few days ago is

that they now, for the post part, agree with each other which is

something of a rarity.

 

The 12z GFS has a 1001 mb cutoff low over the northern Indiana area

from 12z on the 24th into Christmas day before kicking out late in

the day on the 25th. Liquid amounts appear to be in the .50-.75

range. The ECMWF model puts the low even further west than the GFS

for this run tracking the low from eastern Illinois to eastern

Michigan Wednesday morning whereas a few days ago it had the low

further east. The UKMET model out to 72 hours was similar to the

ECMWF model. None of the models show signs of deepening the low or a

period of very cold air following its passage as winds at the 500 mb

level show signs of flattening out west to east.

 

We'll have to see how things are doing with the shorter-range models

(ETA and RUC) over the next day or two. I think the biggest

difference between now and about this time last year is the lack of

real cold air being drawn south between the upper ridge in the west

and the upper low over Hudson Bay that hung around for most of last

Winter.

 

We know things will change but will there be enough change to make it

a white Christmas? (You people in the snowbelt that have up to two

feet at the moment don't count(ha,ha). I guess, at the moment, I'm

not getting too excited. Other thoughts or discussion?

 

Jack

Wooster 7N

 

Date: Mon Dec 22, 2003 6:30 pm

Subject: Well, I've seen it all now!

 

List;

Before I go on with this e-mail, some of you might think I'm getting too critical with these TV forecasters

forecasting far in advance. Well, maybe. But, might I say that indeed it is my right as an American citizen to express

my opinion openly. Do you know what I tell people who ask me about a forecast thay've seen on TV? I tell them,

"Well yea, they must be right. Afterall, they get paid the big bucks, I'm just a hobbiest." :-) With that said...

I just seen a Cleveland Weather Forecaster on TV, make a six to 10 day forecast, stating that New Years Day would

be in the upper 40's. Sounds nice, huh? Well this same forecaster then went on to say that January 2'nd would be the

"coldest day of the season so far with highs lucky to get out of the teens".

How is it again that I can get a job as a TV Meteorologist? Oh yes, out of a Cracker Jack box. I'm still scratching my

head on that one.

Don Keating,

Newcomerstown

 

Date: Tue Dec 23, 2003 9:08 am

Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Well, I've seen it all now!

 

Hi Don and List,

It is my observation that TV forecasters are all hype and nonsense anymore. They are playing to the public for the

ratings and that's all. I have to say that I've stopped watching local TV weather for quite some time now because the

quality of the information you get is suspect. Furthermore, why watch local TV weather when you have a vast

resource of continuously updated weather information at your fingertips via the Internet?!

But on the other hand I have (as well as the rest of us) observed temperature falls of 50 degrees or more in a 24-hour

period in our region. Although the exact dates don't jump out at me I've observed the thermometer fall from 50 F to

0 F in a 24-hour period during February 1979 and a fall from 75 F to 20 F during a 24-hour period in March 1987.

Would I believe with any degree of confidence a forecast put out today for New Years Day? Heck no, but then again

that's how these TV stations get the ratings!

Have a great holiday season everyone!

Matt Higgins

Lodi 2S

 

From: "Phillip Higley" <phigley@bright.net>

Date: Tue Dec 23, 2003 12:48 pm

Subject: rainfall total

 

Everyone talking about local weatherman

forecast.........But I haven't seen NO total's yet.

0.79" rainfall such 9:30 p.m. Monday.

Current temperature 37F

Hi-43F

Low-37F(same 12:45 p.m.)

As the temperature goes down, the rain should (will) turn

over to snowfall........

Local meteroroigist saying 1-2" for us for Christmas.....

Like my wife say, I will belive it when I see

it...........Right??

4-E

Putnam, Co.

 

Date: Tue Dec 23, 2003 3:19 pm

Subject: Message from a 2way device

 

List, I do local weather for W.E.E.C.-F.M.

here in Springield. I base my reports on the N.W.S. data from the internet

and

my readings from my websites. I nelieve it all accurate.

Merry Christmas to all! Dick Groeber.

springfield

 

Date: Tue Dec 23, 2003 7:58 pm

Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Well, I've seen it all now!

 

Matt and List:

Thanks for the seasons greetings. Happy holidays to everyone. Looks like it might be a little white for

some of us.

The comments about TV weather are well taken. The reporting of the news is just as bad. Its

sensationalized, hyped, dramatized - you name it. I guess it only stands to reason that the weather is

going to go the same way. I have to admit that I do like it when they cut away for severe weather but they

don't need to stay with it for 20 minutes straight with all the corny graphics. I know enough about this stuff

to be dangerous and the Internet is a great resource as Matt says. Maybe someone should call them or

email them on New Years and remind those who were wrong about their mistake and the folly of it.

Gary L

Ravenna 1SE

 

Date: Wed Dec 24, 2003 12:52 am

Subject: Re: Well, I've seen it all now!

 

What other job could you have where you get 60% of the calls right

and be said to be doing an excellent job?

 

That time in March 1987 was at the end of the month. In North

Canton, where I lived at the time, That drastic drop in temperature

was followed by 5" snow on the last day of the month. Before that

snow cover could completely melt away, on April 3-4, 1987 we got a

20" blast. That 25" constituted over half of that season's snowfall-

fallen after winter had ended. Not to mention a period of a couple

weeks straight with snow on the ground that late in the season.

 

As for a white Christmas, we were assured that with last week's

blast. Although much of it melted, 1" was still on the ground when

it started snowing again after 10pm tonight. At Midnight we had an

average of 2" on the ground.

 

Vance

Thompson 5 SW

OWON # 98

 

Date: Wed Dec 24, 2003 8:29 am

Subject: Message from a 2way device

 

List, Here in Springfield, we missed any

measurable snow. It was all rain untill yesterday evening with rain-snow

mixed

after the frontal passage. Total was .43 inch.

Merry christmas to all! Dick Groeber.

 

Date: Wed Dec 24, 2003 12:53 pm

Subject: Precipitation for the latest event

 

Hello List;

I believe it was Phil Highly who asked yesterday about rainfall totals for the latest event.

Precipitation total has been 0.61" (rain and some melted snow) and snowfall has been a Trace. It

came down steadily for a bit last night (the snow), but didn't accumulate. That's correct, snowfall

has been ZERO.

Don Keating #106

Newcomerstown 1S

 

Date: Wed Dec 24, 2003 2:32 pm

Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Precipitation for the latest event

 

Group:

The total rain and melted snow at Lodi 2S for the 24-hour period ending at 8 AM today was 0.81 inch. 0.4 inch of

snow fell with most of that between 8-9 PM yesterday. We're getting snow showers this afternoon, but unfortunately

the snow from yesterday evening has melted. Hopefully we'll get more later today & tonight to whiten the ground

for Christmas.

Peace,

Matt Higgins

 

From: "Phillip Higley" <phigley@bright.net>

Date: Wed Dec 24, 2003 5:23 pm

Subject: update on snowfall

 

Since 9:30 p.m. Tuesday we have had 0.3 of snowfall with on again off

again snowfall. Last time I look we had flurries going on, but getting colder.

The ground is cover, but NOT a 1.0" of snowfall on the ground. We might

have just a Tr. of snowfall for Christmas, but NOT official a White

Christmas. My understanding is, if we have more then 1.0" of snowfall on

the ground by 7 a.m. on Christmas morning, that would be a WHITE

Christmas. (Does anyone dis-aggree?)

Today Hi-39F @ 10:16 p.m. on 23

Low-29F @ 2:36 p.m. today.

@ 5:20 p.m. 30F

Baro. 29.73R slowly

Winds SW-5

.3" Snowfall

0.02" Rainfall

4-E

Putnam, Co.

 

Date: Thu Dec 25, 2003 12:43 am

Subject:

 

Total two-day snowfall at my home in northwest Hocking County in the

Hocking Hills through midnight Wednesday(December 24)has been 5.3". Snow

depth is 4".

Jim Fry

Rockbridge 4W

OWON#33

 

Date: Thu Dec 25, 2003 4:44 pm

Subject: Christmas' Past

 

Hello Everyone;

Thought I'd toss a few numbers out your way on this December 25, 2003. High's and Low's in

the past several years as well as precipitation figures...

2002 Hi 31 Lo 26 Rain 0.00" Snow 1.2"

2001 Hi 26 Lo 19 Rain 0.00" Snow 0.2"

2000 Hi 19 Lo - 2 Rain 0.00" Snow TR

1999 Hi 29 Lo 06 Rain 0.00" Snow 0.0"

1998 Hi 30 Lo 09 Rain 0.00" Snow 0.0"

1997 Hi 50 Lo 36 Rain 0.12" Snow 0.0"

1996 Hi 28 Lo 19 Rain 0.00" Snow 0.0"

Record Hi 50 in 1997

Record Lo -8 in 1983

Don Keating #106

Newcomerstown 1S

 

Date: Sun Dec 28, 2003 4:58 pm

Subject: A high temperature of...

 

Hello List;

At 2:43 p.m. on Sunday December 28'th, 2003, we hit a high temperature of 60 degrees. This is

not a record, but it is the first time 60 has been hit since November 24'th when a high of 62 was

hit. What did everyone else come in with?

Don Keating #106

Newcomerstown 1S

Date: Sun Dec 28, 2003 7:19 pm

Subject: Re: A high temperature of...

 

Don and Group:

 

I only had a high of 53 @3:31 p.m. but I'm thinking the temperature

was kept down because of the snow cover that was left before it all

melted by the end of the day. I still had two inches on the ground

early this morning. Mean temperatures have been about normal for this

December.

 

Looking at a few of the models this morning it doesn't appear that

there will be any intrusion of very cold air over about the next ten

days. They show a series of about four storms all taking a track from

the lower Plains states to the upper Missippi Valley/Great Lakes area

leaving us in the southeast quadrant area.

 

The daylight hours are on the upswing again so maybe things won't

look totally dull.

 

Jack

Wooster 7N

 

Date: Sun Dec 28, 2003 8:24 pm

Subject: Message from a 2way device

 

List, The high temperature here in

Springfield was 60 degrees recorded at 3 p.m.. The record high for the date

here

was 65 set in 1995. This was the highest of the month.

Check my data on weather underground by going to www.wundergroundncom and

checking Springfield, Ohio and then personal weather stations.

Dick Groeber.

 

Date: Sun Dec 28, 2003 10:17 pm

Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Re: A high temperature of...

 

Hello Jack;

I agree with you about the long range forecast and the lack of cold air coming down. However, there is some serious

cold building up in Alaska and the NW Territories of Canada. Recently I have seen temperatures as low as -30

degrees in Fairbanks, AK. I have seen other temperatures as low as -39 degrees up there as well, not in Fairbanks

though. I measured 1.3" of snow on Christmas day, it's now all gone except some in the shady spots. I still wouldn't

stick my neck out 17 days and forecast "a pretty good chance of a white Christmas" like one forecaster did. I'm not

that crazy. :-) Following are a few 6 p.m. AST readings on 12/28/2003...

INTERIOR

Arctic Village PartlyCldy -29 MM MM 30.33 MM 10

Bettles MostlyClear -18 77 Calm 30.01 -18 10

Delta Junction Haze -3 68 E25G33 30.00 -28 6

Eagle PartlyCldy -15 73 E8 30.15 -32 10

Eielson AFB PartlyCldy -20 100 NW2 29.50 -20 15

Fort Yukon No Report -31 MM Calm 30.14 -31 10

Fairbanks PartlyCldy -20 81 Calm 29.92 -20 10

 

Don Keating

 

Date: Mon Dec 29, 2003 4:27 pm

Subject: "official" information sources

 

Ohio Wx Group,

With the discussion last week about some TV weather persons making questionable extended forecasts, I am

wondering about something else that some of these stations do. In particular, I am talking about FOX 8 in Cleveland

claiming that it is the "official source of school-closing announcements." A television viewer can get the same

information on the other Cleveland networks, so what is "official" about FOX 8 ?

Perhaps these stations' I-Teams (Investigation Teams) should do some internal investigation concerning some of

their lousy claims, be it school-closing or weather forecasting.

Shawn Trueman

Huron, OH

 

Date: Tue Dec 30, 2003 1:13 pm

Subject: Alaska Warmup

 

Hi List;

According to the 9 a.m. AST temperature list, there was not one single reporting station with a

sub zero reading. Kind of incredible considering there were some stations just a couple of days

ago with readings as low as -30F. Just thought I'd pass on this bit of information. If you'd like to

see the latest readings, simply click on http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/ak/hourly.html

Don Keating

 

From: "J S" <luckej@hotmail.com>

Date: Tue Dec 30, 2003 9:28 pm

Subject: RE: [OhioWx] Alaska Warmup... Pattern Change?

 

Speaking of cold, does anyone have any thoughts about the upcoming potential

pattern change? Seems like there is some increasing model suggestion that

it might get fairly cold just after this weekend, and perhaps even a

possibility of an overrunning storm event. Any thoughts?

 

Date: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:46 pm

Subject: Re: Alaska Warmup... Pattern Change?

 

Jon and Group:

 

Although I've looked at some of the various models, I still think the

GFS has had the better track record than the ECMWF or UKMET over the

past week or so. Looking at the morning models, the only think I

would be paying much attention to at the moment is a panhandle hook

996 mb Low coming into northwestern Ohio by Sunday night. To me this

would be the only thing that would provide a short-term stay of cold

weather. Cold meaning closer to normal. 500mb winds are still pretty

much west to east at least up until the middle of next week due

mostly to a huge elongated east/west upper low west of Hudson Bay.

This low has been partially responsible in pulling that cold air down

on its western side from Alaska into the western states. By the time

its circulation reaches us in that position winds are coming out of

the west cutting off any of the real cold air from heading in our

direction.

 

In my opinion, unless that upper low decides to move further east, I

think we will still continue to have mostly normal to above normal

temperatures (highs in the 30's) with only a brief period or two

of "cold" and very little in the way of synoptic snow into early/mid

week. Once again, however, there is great disagreement amongst some

of the models beyond the weekend. Anyone think we might have a major

cold outbreak or major snow event during the next week?

 

Jack

Wooster 7N

 

Date: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:55 pm

Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Re: Alaska Warmup... Pattern Change?

 

Hello Jack & List;

Let me be the first to wish you a happy new year.

Secondly, I agree with you Jack about the outlook for next week. I'm looking at maps that have

this part of Ohio no colder than 35 for high's through next Thursday. I've also looked at the upper

level patterns and am seeing the same elongated system you are. The Weather Channel has a high

of 23 and snow showers in the forecast for us on Tuesday. I doubt it very much right now.

Snow and cold? Ummm, I'll stick my neck out and say I don't see any major snow or cold for the

next several days. But, again, I have been wrong before. :-)

Don Keating

 

 

 

 

              

 

 

 


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