Cincinnati 5NW #13 (Hamilton County) Ronald E. Rothhaas Jr. - November was a very cool month with only one day above 70 and 5 which did not reach 40.  7 days saw lows in the 20's.  Precipitation was near normal, both rain and snow, which is a switch since recent Novembers have been rather snowless.

    Centerville 1W #82 (Montgomery County) Robert Flory - Weather station and computer back in full operation.

    Cleves 3NW #55 (Hamilton County) James F Davis - Novmber ended up a very cloudy month with above normal rain and below normal temps -2.5 for the month.

    Kirdon 1N #2 (Wayne County) Ronald Hahn - Temperatures for November averaged about a degree below normal, while liquid precipitation was nearly an inch above normal.  Severe thunderstorms swept across Ohio on the 10th, producing 1/2" here at Kidron 1N and a number of tornadoes elsewhere.  The 2.57 inches of rain on the 10th was the greatest 24-hour rainfall for any November day in my 40 years of record. 

    Lodi 2S #23 (Medina County) Matt Higgins - Active weather month with two thunderstorm days and three days with snowfall of one inch or greater observed.  On November 10th at about 6:10 PM, an F2 tornado passed approximately 0.75 mile south-southwest of this station. Funnel cloud was visible between frequent lightning strikes at this reporting station.  A barn was destroyed about one mile southwest of this station on Franchester Road.  Damage was more extensive in the northeastern part of West Salem where a few homes and barns were destroyed.

    Newcomerstown 1S #106 (Tuscarawas County) Don Keating - Record highs were tied or broken on one day. Record lows were tied or broken on four days. Average high wind gust was 20.2 mph while the highest pressure was 30.33 on the 26'th and the lowest pressure was 29.35 on the 10'th and 11'th. There were 2 thunder days; two fog days; 1 hail day and one damaging wind day. Golfball sized hail was observed just west of Newcomerstown at 8:40 p.m. on the 10th.

    Ottawa 4E #15 (Putnam County) Phil & Bonnie Higley - A very un-normal month, HAD a tornado come though the area on 10, Western part of Puntnam, Co. With on 2 death's.  In one way we were luckly.  Just to the south of us, there was alot more damage and it was a F-4, but by it got to us, it was only a F-2 type.  Now we are running below normal in temperature with snow on the ground by 22 on the month & snow again by the end of the month.

    Perrysville 4W #79 (Richland County) Katie Gerwig - Temperatures averaged near normal.  Precipitation slightly below normal.  Severe thunderstorm on Nov. 10th.  Tornado at Polk Ohio approximately 25 miles north of this location.  5 inches snowfall was 2 inches above normal for Nov. in area. 

    Springfield 2N #1 (Clark County) Dick Groeber - Temperature were generally cool and precipitaton was both rain and snow and also widely scattered.  The temperatures were generally cool except fo a brief mild period around the 10th with a three day period (November 8-10) with highs in the 60s and 70s peaking at 73 degrees on the 10th.  A strong cold gront passed through on the 10th ushering in cold temperatures that would last through the remainder of the month with the lowest being a chilly 21 degrees on Thanksgiving day (28th).  Precipitation was generally widely scattered and light.  Three periods stood out, however.  The first was the passage of a strong cold front on the 10th giving the only thunderstorms of the month and rainfall totaling a one day high for the month at 1.73 inches.  The winds gusted to around 32 miles per hour with the system.  The remaining two periods were of snowfall.  A snowfall on the 22nd gave 2.2 inches with winds gusting to 29 miles per hour.  A snowfall on the 26th gave another 2 inches and ushered in our cold Thanksgiving day.  4.2 inches was the 4th snowiest of the period.  The greatest was 5 inches recorded in November of 1971.  The next was 4.5 inches in 1975, and the next was 4.5 inches in 1996. 

    Thompson 5SW #98 (Geauga County) Vance Lunn - After a moderately cold first week, a late "Indian Summer" came during the second week.  Seasonable cold returned the third week and persisted to the end of the month.  Continuous snow cover began on the 22nd with a 4.0 inch fall.  A 7.3 inch lake-effect storm came on the 30th.  Maximum snow depth for November was 7 inches on the 30th.

     Wooster 7N #16 (Wayne County) Jack Sisler - November was somewhat of an exciting month in awhile. Although it didn't affect me, there was an F1 tornado that destroyed some homes and buildings in the northwest part of the county about eight miles to the west of my location on the 10th; part of the outbreak that occured throughout Ohio that day. I broke a low temperature record on the 20th with sixteen degrees breaking the twenty degrees set in 1993. Also, with 3.0" of snowfall for the month made this November the second snowiest in the last seven years. Mean temperatures for the month were about a degree below normal with the high temperatures a little over three degrees below normal. Precipitation for November was below normal making it the sixth month in a row with below normal precipitation and five inches below normal for the year.

    Zanesville 6N (Muskingum County) Tom Ruggles - While the big story for the month was the tornado outbreak on the 10th, less noticed, perhaps, was the unusually cold weather.  With the exception of the 8-10 period, all daily temperatures were below normal.  In our part of the state, snow occurs occasionally in November but this year we had a white Thanksgiving which had not happened since the late eighties.  Also, trees turned and held onto their leaves at least two weeks later than last year and in spite of the cold weather, we had geraniums blooming and looking good until the 30th.

A = Airport

MONTHLY REPORT compiled by Jack Sisler

Date: Fri Nov 1, 2002 7:30 am
Subject: October's Weather Statistics for Centerville 1W

Weather statistics for the month of October for Centerville 1W.

High Temp (Date) ... 87o / 3rd
Low Temp (Date) ... 28o / 14th
Mean High ... 62.3o
Mean Low ... 43.1o
Monthly Mean ... 52.7o
Total Precipitation ... 3.72"
Max 24 hr Precipitation (Date) ... 1.58" / 25th
Number of Precipitation Days... 9
Total Snowfall... 0"
Max 24 hr Snowfall (Date) ... 0" /
Max Snow Depth at time of observation ... 0"
High Wind Gust (Date) ... 33 MPH / 3rd & 4th
Thunderstorm Days ... 0
Highest Barometer (Date) ... 30.43" / 14th
Lowest Barometer (Date) ... 29.61" / 4th
Average High Wind Gust... 15.8 MPH

Computer that runs the weather software remains out of service.

Robert Flory - KA5RUC
Centerville 1W
Montgomery County
OWON #82
ILN Skywarn OMT405

Date: Fri Nov 1, 2002 7:44 am
Subject: month report of Oct. 02


As a hole it been a very dry month & NO snowfall seen here at this station. Ave. Hi was 60.3 The highest was 83F on 1 &2 Ave. Low was 42 The Lowest was 27 on the 31 (go figure.) Ave. Temperature was 51.2 Precip. was 1.43 / 24 hours greatest amount was 0.78 on the 25th Snowfall been 0.0 Highest Baro. was 30.26 15 Lowest Baro. was 29.45 19th & 20 Highest wind speed was 36, ave. High wind speed (Gust) 21.0 We ended up with 11 day's out of 31 with rain & 3 of then we had fog!
4-E
Putnam, Co.

Date: Fri Nov 1, 2002 1:49 pm
Subject: first month summary from Thompson 5 SW



OWON Number
#98
Station Name
Thompson 5 SW 

Month 10/02 Mean Max Temp 56.5 F Mean Minimum Temp 40.8 F Mean Temp 48.5 F Highest Temp 81 F Date 14 Lowest Temp 26 F Date2 31 Total Prec 2.30 in. Max 24hr Precip 0.83 in. Date3 19 Number of Precip Days 5 Total Snowfall 0.5 in. Max 24hr Snow 0.5 in  Date4 29 Number of 1+ Snow Days 0 Wind Gust N/A Date5

comment
Note that this is the first monthly report for my new weather station, Thompson 5 SW. First snow of the season fell on the 29th to coat the ground with a slushy coat of snow. This depth of a trace was the greatest for the month. The temperature failed to reach 50 from the 23rd to the 31st and on the 29th, the high was only 38 F.

Vance Lunn
Thompson 5 SW
OWON #98

Date: Sun Nov 3, 2002 8:11 am
Subject: Coldest Yet

Group:

I recorded 22 degrees @6:58am with a heavy frost this morning, which is the coldest of the season so far.

Jack Sisler
Wooster 7N

Date:  Sun Nov 3, 2002  9:46 am
Subject:  NEOCAMS

I have just posted the summary of the last meeting of the Northeast Ohio chapter of the American Meteorological Society (NEOCAMS) which also includes information on the upcoming holiday dinner as announced by Eric Wert, NEOCAMS President.
Click on:
<http://members.tripod.com/~OhioWx/neocams.html>

Larry Huff
 
Date: Sun Nov 3, 2002 12:20 pm
Subject: coldest yet

here in toledo 5 ne....
heavy frost and a low of 26 @ 6:23 am...

mike bielski
toledo 5 ne
lucas co.
point place

Date: Mon Nov 4, 2002 12:22 am
Subject: Record Low

At 6:32 a.m. on Sunday November 3'rd, Newcomerstown 1S established a record low
reading of 22 degrees. This broke the previous record low of 23 established in 1996.
Don Keating #106
Newcomerstown 1S

Date: Mon Nov 4, 2002 3:29 pm
Subject: Types of Frozen Precipitation

Group:

Because of the time of year and some discussion on this topic, I thought I would list the types of frozen precipitation along with their definitions which most of us will encounter this winter in one form or another except for the hail perhaps. Also, these types of precipitation are measured as a solid as well as a liquid for use in your observations and measurements. I've taken these definitions from a book I have, titled "Glossary of Meteorology", American Meteorological Society, copyright 1959.

frozen precipitation - Any form of precipitation that reaches the ground in frozen form. This would be snow, snow pellets, snow grains, ice pellets, and hail.

snow - precipitation composed of white or translucent ice crystals, chiefly in complex branched hexagonal form and often clustered into snowflakes

snow pellets - (also called soft hail, graupel, tapioca snow). precipitation consisting of white, opaque, approximately round (sometimes conical) ice particles having a snow-like structure, and about 2 to 5mm (1/16th to 1/8 inch) in diameter. Snow pellets are crisp and easily crushed, differing in this respect from snow grains. They rebound when they fall on a hard surface, and often break up. In most cases, snow pellets fall in shower form, often before or together with snow, and chiefly on occasions when the surface temperature is at or slightly below 0 degrees centigrade (32 degrees F)

snow grains - (also called granular snow). precipitation in the form of very small, white opaque particles of ice; the solid equivalent of drizzle. They resemble snow pellets in external appearance, but are more flattened and elongated, and generally have diameters of less than 1mm (1/32nd inch); they neither shatter nor bounce when they hit a hard surface.

ice pellets - (also called sleet, small hail). A type of precipitation consisting of transparent or translucent pellets of ice, 5 mm (1/8th inch) or less in diameter. They will be spherical, irregular, or (rarely) conical in shape. Ice pellets usually bounce when hitting hard ground, and make a sound upon impact. (a) sleet: generally transparent, globular, solid grains of ice which have formed from the freezing of raindrops or the refreezing of largely melted snowflakes when falling through a below-freezing layer of air near the earth's surface. (b) small hail: generally translucent particles, consisting of snow pellets encased in a thin layer of ice. hail - precipitation in the form of balls or irregular lumps of ice, always produced by convective clouds, nearly always cumulonimbus. Hail has a diameter of 5 mm (1/8 inch) or more while smaller particles of similar origin are called ice pellets or snow pellets.

I know sometimes it can be hard for us in determining what kind of frozen precipitation is or has fallen if it's something other than snow.

Jack

Date: Tue Nov 5, 2002 5:10 pm
Subject: Re: Types of Frozen Precipitation

The difference between small hail and hail is a little confusing to minds like mine. It sounds like small hail is a half melted snow pellet within an ice layer, correct? Too many people in the general public call sleet and snow pellets hail, so I am interested in the difference.

Ron

Date: Tue Nov 5, 2002 7:18 pm
Subject: Re: Types of Frozen Precipitation

Ron-

Your right. Other than the size difference, small hail is clear ice surrounding the snow pellet. The ice layer may form either by this snow pellet colliding with a supercooled liquid droplet which freezes upon contact or by melting and refreezing of the surface of the snow pellet.

Jack

Date: Wed Nov 6, 2002 11:01 am
Subject: Re: Types of Frozen Precipitation

eh..I think you guys may be incorrect.

There is no delineation between "small hail" and "hail". Hail is hail and can range in size from less than a pea up to grapefruit (or larger is extreme cases).

I think you are referring to "soft hail" in your discussion. The description that you gave Jack fits the "soft hail" definition.

Matt Higgins
Lodi 2S

Date: Wed Nov 6, 2002 2:49 pm
Subject: Re: Types of Frozen Precipitation

Matt/Ron:

According to the book "Glossary of Meteorology", American Meteorological Society, 1959.......

Page 520. "snow pellets" (also called soft hail, graupel, tapioca snow) Precipitation consisting of white, opaque, approximately round (sometimes conical) ice particles having a snow-like structure, and about 2 to 5mm in diameter.

Page 297. "ice pellets" Precipitation consisting of transparent or translucent pellets of ice 5 mm or less in diameter.....Now internationally recognized, ice pellets includes two basically different types of precipitation, those which are known in the United States as (a) sleet, and (b) small hail. Thus a two-part definition is given: (a) Sleet or grains of ice: generally transparent, globular, solid grains of ice which have formed from the freezing of raindrops or the refreezing of largely melted snowflakes when falling through a below-freezing layer of air near the earth's surface. (b) Small hail: generally translucent particles, consisting of snow pellets encased in a thin layer of ice. The ice layer may form either by the accretion of droplets upon the snow pellet, or by the melting and refreezing of the surface of the snow pellet.

According to those definitions given I'm still interpreting Ron's question as "small hail". It's not white on the outside like soft hail but clear. The only thing white is the snow pellet on the "inside" which would make it small hail.

Jack

Date: Wed Nov 6, 2002 3:13 pm
Subject: Re: Types of Frozen Precipitation

Jack,

I think the version of the "Glossary of Meteorology" you are referring to may be outdated. Under the accepted definitions that I'm aware of at this time the old "small hail" definition has been replaced with "snow grain".

Small hail that occurs during thunderstorms in the warm season is not necessarily created by accretion of droplets (although due to the extreme turbulance in the updraft this may happen) or melting and refreezing that occurs on the surface of a snow pellet. Small hail that occurs in thunderstorms is created by water droplets that are carried into the freezing level of a cumulonimbus by the strong updrafts, the water droplet freezes and then falls to Earth as small hail. When talking precipitation types it is best to sometimes rely on the physical mechanism of how the precipitation evolves to determine what type of precip. you are observing.

Matt Higgins

Date: Wed Nov 6, 2002 3:43 pm
Subject: Frozen Precipitation Types

Hi Group:

I just did a little research concerning the small hail definition Jack stated in the most recent series of e-mails. I wanted everyone to know that I wasn't 100% correct in my previous post. There is a separate small hail definition (I was wrong about that), but it no longer falls under the "ice pellets" description contained in th  1959 Glossary of Meteorology. Jack, neither you or I were correct :). If you have any questions regarding professional observing techniques please refer to the following website:

http://205.156.54.206/oso/oso1/oso12/fmh1/fmh1toc.htm

This is the Federal Meteorological Handbook No. 1 and it can answer a lot of your questions. You may want to bookmark it for future reference. This is how things are done now, folks!

Matt Higgins
Lodi 2S

Date: Wed Nov 6, 2002 4:23 pm
Subject: RE: [OhioWx] Re: Types of Frozen Precipitation

> According to the book "Glossary of Meteorology", American
> Meteorological Society, 1959.......

I don't have a copy to know if the definitions have changed, but that 40+ year old book was replaced by a new version in 2001 as I recall.

- rd

Date: Wed Nov 6, 2002 4:36 pm
Subject: Re: Types of Frozen Precipitation

Hi Rob,

The Glossary of Meteorology was revised in 2000. The revision incorporated new terminology that was added due to the vast improvements in numerical modeling and radar technology that have occurred over the years.

The definitions that are in the Federal Meteological Handbook are somewhat different than those contained in the Glossary of Meteorology in terms of precipitation types, etc. For sake of the professional standard used today for proper meteological observing practices, the Federal Meteological Handbook is the document used as the benchmark for the NWS offices.

Matt

Date: Wed Nov 6, 2002 5:53 pm
Subject: Re: Frozen Precipitation Types

Matt and Group:

So noted. I did bookmark it. While were on the subject of snow, frozen precipitation, etc. there is another source of information that I've used for quite sometime. Anyone familiar with the NWS Cooperative Observer Program would be familiar with it. It too has a section on measuring precipitation, snowboards, etc.Go to

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/coop/training.htm

Scroll down the page and you will see where it says "NWS Observing Handbook No. 2: Cooperative Station Observations". It is 80+ pages long but has a lot of useful information.

Jack

Date: Wed Nov 6, 2002 6:47 pm
Subject: Message from a 2way device

Group, According to the Glossary of Meteorology 2000 edition page 359 hail definition, it is referred to as a hailstone 5 mm or greater formerly as small hail such as ice pellots or snowpellots. A snowboard is used for snowdepth measurement. Dick Groeber.
Springfield 2. O.W.O.N. 1.

Date: Thu Nov 7, 2002 6:51 pm
Subject: Cool Start For Month

High temperatures for the first week of the month weren't even close to normal. Mean high temps were 10 degrees below normal with mean temperatures around 7 degrees below normal. Perhaps our Indian Summer will make an appearance this weekend.

Jack Sisler
Wooster 7N

Date: Thu Nov 7, 2002 9:35 pm
Subject: Message from a 2way device

Group, Indian summer came the second week of October after a light frost around the 7th with temperatures in the 60s and 70s and ending about a week later with the cold period just now ending according to my record books. Dick Groeber.
Springfield 2. O.W.O.N. 1.

Date: Sun Nov 10, 2002 3:48 pm
Subject: Pressure Falls

Group,
Check this out! Haven't seen something like this in quite some time.The Tornado Watches are definately justified given the rest of the atmosphereic conditions.

Dan

http://www.ems.psu.edu/cgi-bin/wx/auto2.cgi

Date: Sun Nov 10, 2002 7:22 pm
Subject: Preliminary Tornado Reports for Ohio

Group:

Here are the preliminary tornado reports this afternoon and evening from the Storm Prediction Center for Ohio. Jack

Tornado Reports
Time F-Scale Location County State Lat Lon Comments

2030 UNK VAN WERT VAN WERT OH 4086 8456 NUMEROUS STRUCTURES DOWN.REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (FWA) 2040 UNK 5 NE VAN WERT VAN WERT OH 4092 8448 DAMAGED STRUCTURES. REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATOR. (FWA) 2045 UNK WETSEL VAN WERT OH 4095 8443 DAMAGED STRUCTURES. REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATOR. (FWA) 2053 UNK GROVER HILL PAULDING OH 4101 8448 NUMEROUS STRUCTURES DOWN. REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (FWA) 2055 UNK 2 SE GROVER HILL PAULDING OH 4099 8445 *** 5 INJ *** HOUSE BLOWN DOWN. REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (FWA) 2100 UNK 2 WNW CONTINENTAL PUTNAM OH 4111 8430 HOMES DAMAGED. REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATOR. (FWA) 2100 UNK AYERSVILLE DEFIANCE OH 4123 8428 BARN AND SILO BLOWN DOWN. TREES DOWN. CAMPER BLOWN OVER. REPORTED BY DISPATCH. (FWA)

Date:  Sun Nov 10, 2002  7:31 pm
Subject:  Re: Pressure Falls

Dan and Group:

Lowest barometric pressure here bottomed out at 29.45" at around 6pm with a .15" drop from 1pm until 6pm. This is the lowest since May 2. Appears any severe weather was to the north and south of me. Pretty good lightning displays to the south and east.

Jack
 
Date: Sun Nov 10, 2002 7:33 pm
Subject: University Circle Cleveland OH 44106

Heard the tornado warning and evacuated The Cleveland Institute of Art Library (where I am working) at 6:45 PM. Called my boss to say I was evacuating and she said that I shouldn't, it was staying to the south! Well... I helped write the tornado procedure, and I said I was going with the official report which forecast its direction through Cleveland Heights, on the border of which we are located. So I evacuated anyway... it is now 7:32 PM by the clock here and I reopened the library a few minutes ago because the weather seems to have calmed down and the cloud base seemed to be rising instead of falling. I hope my instinct is correct; I take tornado warnings very seriously.

Regards,
Liz

Date: Sun Nov 10, 2002 8:18 pm
Subject: We've Been Hit!


Group,
Apparent Tornado touchdown on the north side of Macedonia.I just drove the area and all law enforcement officials are on the scene.The local recreation center is been set up for the folks of this area who have been hit.Police are going door to door to issue the evacuations.Large trees cracked in half and rip out of the ground , roots and all.All signage has been bent, twisted or is lodged in the upper portions of the trees that are still standing.I could not tell if any roofs have been removed.Many power lines down making roads impassable with the trees ..etc.Basically, it is a disaster area and it will be difficult for the crews to get the job done as it is still raining moderately with vivid lightning at times.

Dan

P.S. This is just two miles to my north!

Date: Sun Nov 10, 2002 9:10 pm
Subject: Re: [OhioWx] We've Been Hit!

Dan,

I heard the reports in progress on 146.76 CuyCo Skywarn. I am glad that you are OK. Does anyone have reports on damage in Solon?

Regards,
Liz

Date: Sun Nov 10, 2002 11:25 pm
Subject: Message from a 2way device

Group, From Springfield. Two periods of rain today. Morning rain totaled .53 inch with wind gust to 31 m.p.h. Afternoon-night with thunderstorms after cold frontal passage gave an additional 1.20 inches totaling 1.73 inches. Low barometer at 29.35 inches. High temperature of 73 degrees set a new station record.
Dick Groeber. O.W.O.N. 1.

Date: Mon Nov 11, 2002 8:09 am
Subject: Medina County Weather/Storm Report

11/11/02
8:00 a.m.

Event Total Rainfall: 1.47"
Maximum Wind Gust: 20 mph
Barometric Pressure: 29.44

Even though it wasn't all that bad here, we were without power for about 5 hours last evening.

Our thoughts to all those who were much harder hit!

Amber Dalakas
Brunswick 2NE

Date:  Mon Nov 11, 2002  9:21 am
Subject:  Yesterday's Outbreak

Group:

As of 7am this morning, this is the breakdown on the preliminary reports of yesterday's and early this mornings storm reports from the Storm Prediction Center:

Ohio: Nationwide (16 states):

Tornado Reports: 18 Tornado Reports: 46
Hail Reports: 28 Hail Reports: 141
Wind Reports: 42 Wind Reports: 192

I'm sure these figures will change since there will probably be duplication and/or confirmations.

I consider myself lucky compared to areas not far from me. My highest wind gust was 35 mph @6:52pm and total rainfall for the event was .92". There was an unconfirmed tornado report according to the SPC reports with structural damage in the northwestern part of Wayne County (West Salem)which is about 12 miles northwest of me.

Jack
Wooster 7N
Wayne County
 
Date: Mon Nov 11, 2002 11:03 am
Subject: report from storm 11/10

Everyone in this area of Putnam, Co. seem to be OK.......... The main area of the storm hit Continental, Oh.. A house trailer went over & In Van Wert some business & home's were damage very bad. Which is about 15 miles from here, to the west. And Van Wert, County got hit too.Here's my number's for 11/10;Hi; 67 Rel. Hum. was at 100% Low; 56 Precip.: 1.58" At 9:30 p.m. it was 56 Hi Wind gust was 40 M.P.H. Hail was report in Ottawa. About 4 miles West of here. NO Hail was seen here.....
4-E
Putnam, Co.
Thanks for asking........

Date: Mon Nov 11, 2002 12:30 pm
Subject: My Observations

Hi Group!

WOW! What an evening of excitement! I think my bald spot has doubled in size after a hectic night of observing last night.

I saw two rotating wall clouds last night from my home 2 miles south of Lodi. According to an Akron Beacon Journal article on-line this morning, a house was destroyed on Jeffery Road in southwestern Medina County yesterday evening. That house was only about a mile west- southwest from mine. I also heard reports of damage in West Salem last night. I personally observed damage from a meso that passed near the intersection of I-71 and State Route 83 near the Lodi Outlet Mall when I went out to grab a bite to eat around 8 PM yesterday evening after the severe storms swept through.

There were two supercell thunderstorms of concern over southern Medina county yesterday evening. The first one originated over Richland county and tracked north-northeast across central Ashland county where Polk was hit hard. Looking at the damage pictures on TV last night it was rather obvious to me that a tornado hit Polk yesterday evening. This cell continued to track to the north-northeast and passed across West Salem in extreme northwestern Wayne County and continued into southwestern Medina County. The meso (and associated rotating wall cloud) was visible about 0.25-0.50 mile west of my house around 6 PM yesterday evening. Gusty southeast winds preceding the meso shifted to the west as it passed to my north- northwest. Peak wind gusts from this storm were only about 20-25 MPH (estimated) at my house. I did not see a tornado, but that doesn't rule out the fact that one may have developed in the West Salem area and western Harrisville Township, Medina County.

The second rotating wall cloud passed to my south and east between 6:30 PM-6:45 PM from another supercell thunderstorm that moved from eastern Ashland county through northwestern Wayne County, over the Lodi Outlet Mall, and then northeast through Medina County towards northern Summit County. A loud, roaring sound was heard as this meso tracked northeast across I-71 towards the Outlet Mall. Signage from businesses on the corner of I-71 and Rte. 83 was blown out, trees toppled, telephone poles bend over, and lighting fixtures downed as this meso swept through. Meanwhile, two miles west of that location winds hit 45 MPH at my house from the north-northwest at 6:38 PM. I observed branches, leaves, and other debris flying through the air. Needless to say, after observing all this I took refuge in my Utility Room with my two dogs along with a neighbor and his three kids that sought shelter at my house when the first rotating wall cloud was sighted. The loud, roaring sound lasted about 3-5 minutes while the meso tracked rapidly to my east. Again, I can't confirm whether there was a tornado near the Outlet Mall yesterday evening. I don't think there was and that the wind was associated with the rear-flank downdraft associated with the mesocyclone.

My thoughts go out to those deeply affected by these violent storms last night. Thanks to Amber, Jack, Dan, and Phil for posting their accounts of this severe weather outbreak. I hope that others post their observations & share their experiences with OhioWx.

A little rattled in the Lodi area.....

Matt Higgins

P.S. On the bright side, we did pick up 1.18 inches of much needed
rain at Lodi 2S yesterday evening!

Date: Mon Nov 11, 2002 12:54 pm
Subject: Storm Pictures

Group:

If anyone in the group that is near any of the effected areas that can take pictures, please do so they can be posted with the OhioWx Group. If we receive enough of these we can put all them into a special folder for all to see. I will mention, however, in so doing don't try to go into any restricted areas!

FYI, I did hear via the news media that the tornado in Van Wert county has been rated an F4. Looking at the news video of the widespread damage, I find myself VERY fortunate that little if any damage occured at my location.

I am sure I can speak for everyone in saying that my prayers go out to all who were effected.

Jack Sisler
Wooster 7N
Wayne County

Date: Mon Nov 11, 2002 3:19 pm
Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Re: University Circle Cleveland OH 44106

Thanks for the encouragement, Matt. Most of my colleagues think I overdid it by evacuating, but my boss turned around and said she thought I handled it well. It was eerie, though -- I got my Wx scanner and listened to the on-the-spot reports coming in from Macedonia and hail reports from Solon on CuyCo Skywarn. Having been through a tornado I could vividly imagine what those people were seeing. I think this weekend might make it into the record books as another "great" tornado outbreak.

Anyone else watch the radar and see that incredibly HUGE bow echo?

Regards,
Liz

Date:  Mon Nov 11, 2002  5:02 pm
Subject:  Re: University Circle Cleveland OH 44106

Liz and Group:

Perhaps you should explain to some of your collegues what the manager did at that movie theatre in Van Wert just minutes before the tornado hit there. Go to the address below and scroll half-way down to where it says "Ohio: 'I saw a black wall'

http://www.msnbc.com/news/8833130.asp?vts=111120021250&cp1=1

Also about the same time the storms began moving into the Cleveland viewing area one of the Cleveland TV stations broke in with the tornado warnings about 5pm during a football game that had about one minute to play in overtime. The station received numerous calls criticizing them for interrupting the game.

I wonder how many of these same people are picking up after the storm damage or are recovering from injuries?! Sounds like a "no brainer" to me.

Jack
 
Date: Mon Nov 11, 2002 5:16 pm
Subject: Re: University Circle Cleveland OH 44106

Group:

Correction on that web address. It should be
http://www.msnbc.com/news/833130.asp?0sl=-30

Jack

Date: Mon Nov 11, 2002 6:41 pm
Subject: Sunday Report


Hello List;
The day started off with a rapid pressure fall, mild conditions (with a high of 71 degrees) and somewhat gusty winds. I was cruising the country roads in Coshocton County in the early and mid afternoon and when I arrived home around 4:30 the pressure here had dropped to 29.45" with a reading of 68 degrees. At about 6:45 very vivid non stop cloud to cloud lightning was observed to my west as a storm moved northeastward and to my northwest. About 7:15 p.m. the tornado siren sounded. I was able to capture an image off of the NWS PGH radar showing an extremely intenst storm moving into Tuscarawas County from Coshocton County. The image below was taken at 6:47 p.m. 11/10/2002. After that isolated cell moved away, the main line approached. As I looked at radar at about 8:30 p.m. I saw an intense storm that appeared to be taking on a bow echo configuration. I looped the radar, realized this "bow" was heading in my direction, I decided to put myself in the middle of this particular storm and went to a location approximently 4 miles WSW of Newcomerstown inside the Coshocton County line. I took my camera and set it up on top of my car. I succedded in getting only one photo of lightning, but i  was a cloud to ground stroke and appeared to hit the ground near Coshocton. I will attempt to have the photo scanned and cropped as the lightning bolt was miles away. I also observed something I never have seen before. Right after I got set up I saw what appeared to be transformers being hit by lightning as I saw a green glow several times near lightning strikes. Quite interesting. As the bow echo approached me the winds picked up rapidly. As the rains began to fall, I decided to evacuate the hill I was on and headed home. Before I had even traveled a mile very heavy rains and strong winds belted my car. As I traveled down Coshocton County road 9 heading east towards Newcomerstown, and about 2 miles west of town, the winds and rain were so severe that I could not see more that 10 feet in front of me. At one point someones lawn basket blew across the road right in front of me! I still don't know if it was a wooded one or something else. I know it was at least three feet high as it blew across the road in front of me. Right afterwards, hail of about 1" in diameter pelted my car. As I got into Newcomerstown it was obvious the most severe of this bow echo moved north of Newcomerstown. As I approached home, I noticed about a quarter of the electric was out for Newcomerstown. The electric here at my house did not come on til 6 a.m. All in all, I consider myself quite lucky. At one point on the way home, I noticed I could not even see the reflectors in the middle of the road or any of the lines. I then realized, I was on the wrong side of the road!!! I think next time I'll pull over to the side of the road. Below is the radar view of the storm that prompted the tornado warning for Tuscarawas County @ 7:30 p.m. I have it circled. Sorry for the extensive report. Oh yea, some interesting notes... As the first storm slid to my northwest about 7:45 p.m., the pressure went from 29.35" to 29.44" The temperature also went UP from 65 degrees to 71 degrees. The peak wind at my station was 33 mph. OK, I'm done!
Don Keating #106
Newcomerstown 1S

Date: Mon Nov 11, 2002 6:51 pm
Subject: Public Information Statements from NWS

Group:

The following are the public information statements from the NWS
regarding confirmation of tornadoes yesterday.

NOUS41 KILN 112320 PNSILN INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-120515-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 620 PM EST MON NOV 11 2002

UNION...LOGAN COUNTY TORNADO CLASSIFIED AS F3 ON THE FUJITA TORNADO SCALE.

THE FOLLOWING IS THE APPROXIMATE PATH OF THE TORNADO/DAMAGE. THE TORNADO ORIGINALLY TOUCHED DOWN IN PERRY TOWNSHIP IN LOGAN COUNTY BETWEEN WEST MANSFIELD AND EAST LIBERTY 430 TO 440 PM. THE TORNADO TRACKED NORTHEAST INTO YORK TOWNSHIP IN UNION TOWNSHIP...CAUSING DAMAGE ON NEWTON-PERKINS ROAD...THE CORNER OF DAVIS AND LUNDA ROADS...SPANGLER ROAD AND OHIO ROUTE 47...BEFORE LIFTING AROUND MCPECK AND BOUNDARY ROADS.

DAMAGE ALONG WITH PATH WAS NOT CONTINUOUS...BUT THERE WERE NUMEROUS OPEN FIELDS. FROM THE FIRST POINT OF DAMAGE TO LAST WOULD PUT THE PATH LENGTH AT ABOUT 10 MILES. THE DAMAGE PATH WAS 200-300 YARDS WIDE.

DAMAGE FROM THE TORNADO...IN LOGAN COUNTY WAS TWO SEMI-TRAILERS DAMAGED ALONG WITH A SHED ROOF. IN UNION COUNTY...4 HOUSES WERE DESTROYED...9 OTHERS SUSTAINED DAMAGE. IN ADDITION AROUND HALF A DOZEN BARNS OR SHEDS WERE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED...ALONG WITH SEVERAL VEHICLES. ALSO A LARGE METAL HI-TENSION ELECTRIC TOWER WAS KNOCKED DOWN AND DESTROYED. IN UNION COUNTY TWO PEOPLE WERE INJURED.  DAMAGE ALONG THE PATH WAS CONSISTENT WITH F3 DAMAGE ON THE FUJITA SCALE WHICH WOULD ESTIMATE THE WINDS BETWEEN 158 AND 206 MPH.

$$
SITES

NOUS41 KCLE 112305
PNSCLE

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
605 PM EST MON NOV 11 2002

SUMMARY:

EVENT: TORNADO
DATE: SUNDAY NOVEMBER 10, 2002
TIME: 5:30 PM
COUNTY: OTTAWA
LOCATION: STARTED SOUTHWEST OF THE CITY OF
PORT CLINTON...MOVED NORTHEAST AND HIT
CATAWBA ISLAND
F-SCALE: F2
WINDS: 113-157 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 7-10 MILES
WIDTH: 50 YARDS
INJURIES:


EVENT: TORNADO
DATE: SUNDAY NOVEMBER 10, 2002
TIME: 630-6:40 PM
COUNTY: ASHLAND AND MEDINA
LOCATION: STARTED SOUTHWEST OF POLK TO
HOMERVILLE IN MEDINA COUNTY
F-SCALE: F1 (ISOLATED F1 IN MEDINA COUNTY)
WINDS: 73-112 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 7 MILES
WIDTH: 250 YARDS
INJURIES:


EVENT: TORNADO
DATE: SUNDAY NOVEMBER 10, 2002
TIME: 604-6:10 PM
COUNTY: WAYNE
LOCATION: STARTED SOUTHEAST OF WEST SALEM
TO A COUPLE MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BURBANK
F-SCALE: F1
WINDS: 73-112 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 5 MILES
WIDTH: MOSTLY 100-200 YARDS...BRIEFLY TO NEAR
A QUARTER MILE WIDE.
INJURIES:


EVENT: TORNADO
DATE: SUNDAY NOVEMBER 10, 2002
TIME: 4:40 PM
COUNTY: HANCOCK
LOCATION: STARTED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
FOSTORIA IN HANCOCK COUNTY AND
MOVED TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
FOSTORIA IN SENECA COUNTY
F-SCALE: F2
WINDS: 113-157 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 8-9 MILES
WIDTH: 50 YARDS
INJURIES:


EVENT: TORNADO
DATE: SUNDAY NOVEMBER 10, 2002
TIME: 5:15 PM
COUNTY: SENECA
LOCATION: STARTED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
TIFFIN
TO 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BELLEVUE
F-SCALE: F3
WINDS: 158-206 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 25 MILES
WIDTH: 200 YARDS
INJURIES:


EVENT: TORNADO
DATE: SUNDAY NOVEMBER 10, 2002
TIME: 7:00 - 7:15 PM
COUNTY: SUMMIT AND CUYAHOGA
LOCATION: MACEDONIA TO TWINSBURG TO GLENWILLOW
F-SCALE: F2 (IN TWINSBURG) OTHERWISE F0 TO F1
WINDS: F2 113-157 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 4 TO 8 MILES
WIDTH: 100 YARDS
INJURIES:

EVENT: TORNADO
DATE: SUNDAY NOVEMBER 10, 2002
TIME: UNKNOWN
COUNTY: WOOD
LOCATION: NEAR JERRY CITY
F-SCALE: F1
WINDS: 73 - 112 MPH
PATH LENGTH: UNKNOWN
WIDTH: UNKNOWN
INJURIES:


$$

MORAVEK/KIELTYKA/VRCE

Date: Mon Nov 11, 2002 7:16 pm
Subject: Van Wert Tornado Statement

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 245 PM EST MON NOV 11 2002

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS FROM PRELIMINARY GROUND SURVEYS DONE BY METEOROLOGISTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON'S TORNADOES IN NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO.


A TORNADO OF STRENGTH F3 OR GREATER (WINDS GREATER THAN 158 MPH) STRUCK VAN WERT OHIO. THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF WHITE AND SCHUMM ROADS IN SOUTHWEST VAN WERT COUNTY.  THE WORST DAMAGE WAS IN THE CITY OF VAN WERT AT THE TWIN CINEMA AND AT THE INTERSECTION OF ZOOK AND DULL-ROBINSON ROADS. THE TORNADO WAS A QUARTER MILE WIDE AT THIS POINT. AS IT MOVED NORTHEAST FROM THE CITY OF VAN WERT THE STRENGTH OF THE TORNADO WEAKENED BUT THE DAMAGE PATH WIDENED TO A HALF MILE. AS THE TORNADO MOVED THROUGH SOUTHEAST PAULDING AND NORTHWEST PUTNAM COUNTIES IT WAS AN F2. IT WEAKENED TO AN F0 AS IT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHEAST DEFIANCE COUNTY AND INTO HENRY COUNTY. THE TORNADO ENDED NEAR THE INTERSECTIONS OF COUNTY ROADS 11 AND K IN HENRY COUNTY NEAR MALINTA. THE TOTAL PATH LENGTH OF THIS TORNADO WAS 53 MILES. AN AREAL DAMAGE SURVEY AND A FINAL DETERMINATION OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS TORNADO WILL BE CONDUCTED BY A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT EXPERT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Date: Mon Nov 11, 2002 8:01 pm
Subject: RE: [OhioWx] Sunday Report


Hi Don,
Very nice report! To my knowledge preliminary estimates indicate there were 13 tornadoes reported in Ohio yesterday. This would be the most in one day since July 1992. Those were interesting barometer observations in your report. I noticed similar gyrations in pressure as storms passed through my area yesterday evening. I think my lowest observed at one point was 29.40 inches (although, I wasn't keeping as close an eye on the barometer as I was the sky yesterday evening). Anyone else care to share their observations on this very significant weather event?
Matt Higgins

Date: Mon Nov 11, 2002 8:11 pm
Subject: Re: [OhioWx] My Observations

Matt, Dan and Group:

Glad to hear everyone is ok, I was especially concerned about Matt and Dan given the location of some of the storm reports. Just a couple of observations or thoughts that I am curious if anyone else noticed.

1. I started checking some of the SPC stuff earlier in the afternoon and it appeared that they were expecting most of the heavy stuff to be in SW Ohio (and points south). It seemed as though the heavy weather translated north very quickly and unexpectedly. I wasn't paying too much attention at the time because I didn't expect much to happen. Did anyone else pick up on this?

2. Does anyone know if yesterday's event had any parallels with the super outbreak (April, 1974 - Xenia). I was impressed with the strength of the storms and the large area of the Ohio and Tenn valleys that the storms covered.

3. For Rick R: Did you hear any sirens blown in Ravenna when the Tornado warning for Portage County was issued? I did not and I was watching the  storm with my door open and a siren maybe a quarter mile from my house. I am not aware of any damage in town but not blowing the sirens was unforgiveable, given the warning and the nature of the storm. I am wondering how many other places with sirens did not sound them? (that question is for others on the list who can speak to it).

4. Liz: You did the right thing. I had my family in the basement and went there myself after watching the storm for a while. I hate these things at night since you cannot see them too well (forgive me skywarn folks!).

Gary L
Ravenna

Date: Mon Nov 11, 2002 9:35 pm
Subject: RE: [OhioWx] My Observations (and points south). It seemed as though the heavy weather translated
north very quickly and unexpectedly. I wasn't paying too much attention at the time because I didn't expect much to happen. Did anyone else pick up on this?

They envisioned the northern IN/OH stuff to be more straight-line than
supercell tornadoes, hence the SVR watch at first.

2. Does anyone know if yesterday's event had any parallels with the super outbreak (April, 1974 - Xenia). I was impressed with the strength of the

Not even in the ballpark...

- rd

Date:  Tue Nov 12, 2002  2:42 pm
Subject:  Comparison with 1974 outbreak

Rob,

When you say "not even close" about comparing this tornado outbreak with the 1974 Super outbreak, what do you mean? Please reply as to the following, I would like to see your reasoning:

1. Number of tornadoes
2. Severity of tornadoes
3. Geographical location of tornadoes
4. Number of deaths
5. Length of severity

I think there IS a comparison, at least when you look at weather conditions. They were almost exactly the same as in 1974. Also the number of deaths doesn't compare only because we have somewhat better warning systems in place.

Just my 0.02,
Liz
 
Date: Tue Nov 12, 2002 4:10 pm
Subject: RE: [OhioWx] Comparison with 1974 outbreak

> When you say "not even close" about comparing this tornado outbreak
> with the 1974 Super outbreak, what do you mean?

I mean there is no relation, other than the word "outbreak" ;>

> 1. Number of tornadoes

150 vs 60(?)

> 2. Severity of tornadoes

6 F-5's and 20(?) F-4s, vs 0 F-5's and 1(?) F-4.

> 3. Geographical location of tornadoes

Gulf Coast to Michigan, vs. northern AL/GA to OH/IN with a large gap in
between.

> 4. Number of deaths

330 dead, 5000+ injured vs. nowhere NEAR as close.

> 5. Length of severity

118 had paths over a mile long. Not even that many tornadoes occurred on Sunday, let alone mile-long ones!

I think there IS a comparison, at least when you look at weather conditions. They were almost exactly the same as in 1974. I don't have all the maps in front of me from '74, but I don't recall them looking much at all like Sunday. I'll see what I can dig up...

- rd

Date: Tue Nov 12, 2002 5:23 pm
Subject: Re: Comparison with 1974 outbreak

Rob:

When my wife asked me this same question, my answer was the same as yours. I would not even say the set-up was similar. The scale, extent, and intensity of tornadoes on April 3, 1974 was unprecedented. 6 F5's! More than usually occur in a couple years in one day, and one 3 miles west of my house (yes, I did see it)! I think it was in the early 1990's in June that a tornado outbreak began in Illinois and moved across Indiana and Ohio. The tornado in that outbreak which hit Bright, Indiana, and Harrison, Ohio, was an F4. I believe one or two others in Indiana and Illinois were also F4's or F3's. If I had to compare Sunday's outbreak to something it would be this. Incidentally, my photographs of damage from this storm appeared in the old American Weather Journal. Ron Rothhaas

Date: Tue Nov 12, 2002 5:40 pm
Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Re: Comparison with 1974 outbreak

Rob,

Thanks for the 1974 comparison, now I understand the differences. I hate to date myself, but in April 1974 I was three months from being born!

As for the weather situations, this storm system and the prerequisites are strikingly similar to those that Dan McCarthy (of SPC, who was interviewed by just about every TV network in the last few days) showed  us in a NEOCAMS meeting last spring. (Northeast Ohio Chapter of the AMS -- was anyone else taking notes?) Two jetstreams at different levels converging at the Ohio River valley, warm air coming from the southeast and cold air rushing in from the northwest -- that's what happened before the 1974 outbreak.

Cheers,
Liz

Date: Tue Nov 12, 2002 5:41 pm
Subject: Fwd: Violent Storms Pound the eastern U.S.


Many have commented in the past that this TV weatherman like to hype, and he does, but he makes some interesting suggestions about a winter pattern. I was impressed with our brain trust last year, so any thoughts on this or your own winter pattern ideas. The official forecast is for dry weather but I have had about 15 inches of rain since Sept. 1, normally the driest period of the year.

Ron Rothhaas From: rapuzzo@fox19.com
Date: Mon Nov 11, 2002 12:18 pm
Subject: Violent Storms Pound the eastern U.S.
To: ronbridgemanning@cs.com


A cooler and quieter pattern will dominate the weather picture here in the wake of what will likely be a storm system for the record books. There were hundreds of severe weather reports, most being for hail and damaging winds. However, there were 46 tornadoes reported from Ohio, Illinois, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and Florida! The severe weather is responsible for at least 33 deaths and more than 100 injuries. I'm sure that part of the blame for the deaths and injuries is the fact that this was a November outbreak, and across the south, most of the storms occurred after sunset.

It has been a while since we thought about severe storms as a daily threat, and most forecasts, including those from the National Weather Service, did not focus on the threat for severe weather until Sunday morning.just hours before the event. The reason for that is because an event like this is very rare in November, so the mentality on Saturday was that showers and thunderstorms were likely Sunday, but severe weather would be limited to portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. In fact, on Sunday morning, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma didn't even have northeast Indiana or northern Ohio in any kind of severe weather risk area, and they got hit the hardest! There are a number of reasons for that, but to keep it simple, this was not a classic severe weather event and is one that will be studied extensively over the next few years.

Today we are enjoying some sunshine, but clouds will return with an upper-level (20,000 feet) disturbance later this afternoon. Cool air and mostly cloudy skies will be around for Tuesday, but it looks like we'll get some sunshine with highs around 50 Wednesday, and increasing clouds with highs in the 50s Thursday. There is a new storm coming our way Friday and it will bring some very chilly air into the area by the weekend.

Here's something to think about. I mentioned in my November Outlook that this month would be stormy, and I also think that will be the trend for the winter ahead. We are seeing El Nino (mild Pacific flow) battling with a very cold pool of arctic air in Canada, and this may lead to surprisingly strong storm systems in the coming months. So, yesterday's storm system may be an indicator of the strength and breadth of winter storms we will be facing. I will have the latest on the change back to cooler weather and the late-week storm that may finally bring a few flurries to the area tonight on the Ten O'Clock News.

Have a great day!
Rich Apuzzo
FOX19 HOME PAGE:
www.fox19.com

Date: Tue Nov 12, 2002 7:18 pm
Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Re: Comparison with 1974 outbreak

Rob, Liz and List:

In April of 1974 I was three months away from high school graduation! I guess when I raised the question yesterday, I was thinking more along the lines of the causes rather than the results, although that may not have been clear in my question. Liz's memory on Dan McCarthy's presentation is bette  than mine (see what youth does for ya!). Anyway, thanks for the info in the responses - it was quite informative.

Gary L.
Ravenna

Date: Tue Nov 12, 2002 8:08 pm
Subject: Tornado Facts and Figures for Ohio

Group:

Here is some interesting info from the Storm Prediction Center and other sources regarding Ohio's ranking with tornadoes. I think some of you will be surprised.

From 1950-1994 Ohio ranked:

21st in number of tornadoes
11th in fatalities
4th in injuries
7th in damage

The deadliest tornado year for Ohio was 1965 (Palm Sunday Outbreak, April 11)with 62 tornadoes killing 55 people in Ohio, which ranks 13th nationally. The second deadliest year was 1974 (Xenia Super- Outbreak) with 42 tornadoes (2 F-5's during the outbreak) killing 36 people in Ohio, all the deaths occuring from the Xenia outbreak and ties for 22nd nationally.

In the superoutbreak of 1974 4,300 homes and 639 businesses were destroyed or had major damage in Ohio.("Thunder In The Heartland")

Jack

Date: Tue Nov 12, 2002 8:16 pm
Subject: RE: [OhioWx] Re: Comparison with 1974 outbreak

Thanks for the 1974 comparison, now I understand the differences. I hate to date myself, but in April 1974 I was three months from being born!

I wasn't quite 4 years old then, so I'm not speaking from experience either
;>

AMS -- was anyone else taking notes?) Two jetstreams at different levels converging at the Ohio River valley, warm air coming from the southeast and cold air rushing in from the northwest -- that's what happened before the 1974 outbreak.

True -- but that's the "USA Today Weather Book" version of events. When you start comparing specific wind speeds, orientation of the jets, amount of moisture being transported in, temperatures prior to frontal passage, etc. you'll see much more different than similar.

- rd

Date: Tue Nov 12, 2002 8:51 pm
Subject: Re: Fwd: Violent Storms Pound the eastern U.S.

--- In OhioWx@y..., ronbridgemanning@c... wrote:
> Many have commented in the past that this TV weatherman like to hype
I'm sure that part of the blame for the deaths and injuries is the fact that this was a November outbreak, and across the south, most of the storms occurred after sunset.

I believe climatologically speaking, there is always a "second" peak of severe weather that occurs during this time of year, although minor and brief.

In fact, on Sunday morning, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma didn't even have northeast Indiana or northern Ohio in any kind of severe weather risk area, and they got hit the hardest!

I believe he is wrong there. I wish now that I saved the SPC outlooks for Sunday but as early as early Sunday morning I think all of Ohio except the extreme northwest and northeast corners of Ohio were in a "slight risk" area with at least a "moderate risk" in states to the south. With the SPC issuing at least five daily outlooks he could have been looking at one of the earlier ones.

Jack

Date: Tue Nov 12, 2002 11:37 pm
Subject: RE: [OhioWx] Re: Fwd: Violent Storms Pound the eastern U.S.

In fact, on Sunday morning, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma didn't even have northeast Indiana or northern Ohio in any kind of severe weather risk area, and they got hit the hardest!  I believe he is wrong there. I wish now that I saved the SPC outlooks for Sunday but as early as early Sunday morning I think all of Ohio except the extreme northwest and northeast corners of Ohio were in

The 06Z SPC outlook (1am Sunday) had all of Ohio, Indiana and most of southern MI in a slight risk. The moderate area came up to a roughly Dayton - Athens line. 13Z chopped MI out of it, and moved the moderate to Cinci and points south. 1630Z was about the same, no change at 20Z except to put Michigan back into the slight (didn't understand that) and then the final 01Z had High into southern third of OH, with the moderate from Cincy to Cleveland to Pittsburgh.

- rd

Date: Wed Nov 13, 2002 6:31 pm
Subject: CORN Report

Just posted the October 2002 Central Ohio Raingage Network report from Bob Davis at:
<http://members.tripod.com/~OhioWx/corn.html>

Larry Huff

Date: Thu Nov 14, 2002 8:43 pm
Subject: Nor'easters



This is probably a very silly question, but are most of the severe winter storms in our area from Nor'easters?

If they aren't, are there other typical weather patterns that setup to bring about blizzard situations?

Thanks,
Amber

Date: Thu Nov 14, 2002 8:56 pm
Subject: RE: [OhioWx] Nor'easters

This is probably a very silly question, but are most of the severe winter storms in our area from Nor'easters?

Nothing silly about that! Ohio does get snow from them, but certainly not
"most" storms. If they aren't, are there other typical weather patterns that setup to bring about blizzard situations?

The "Panhandle Hook"! Do a websearch on that for more specifics -- basically a storm that develops over the Texas/OK panhandle region, and curves up through the Ohio Valley bringing in boatloads of moisture with it from the Gulf of Mexocp. The problem in forecasting is trying to decide the rain/snow line. It literally can go from nothing but rain in one town, to 6" of snow 50 miles north, and that kind of precision is hard to nail too far in advance. That snow is usually very heavy and wet due to temps near the freezing mark.

We also get snow from "Alberta Clippers" which are fast moving systems out of -- guess -- Alberta Canada. Those lack the good source of moisture from the Gulf of Mex, but still are capable of squeezing out a nice amount of fluffy flakes with temperatures much cooler.

- rd

Date: Fri Nov 15, 2002 1:56 pm
Subject: Rain or Snow?

I've seen alot of forecasts calling for a "chance" of some snowfalls in Ohio ranging from a coating up to 6". The 6" forecast was for my neck of the woods Saturday night and Sunday! I personally think alot of hoopla is being spread around for something that will turn into a nearly all rain event. I seem to recall two weeks ago some forecasts called for up to 12" of LE snows. I had one forecaster tell me personally he expected up to 12" from LE. How much did they get? Next to none. That was in extreme NE OH and NW PA.
Don Keating

Date: Fri Nov 15, 2002 2:12 pm
Subject: RE: [OhioWx] Rain or Snow?

This isn't a lake-effect event, and based on temps in the upper-levels it's going to be close on rain vs. snow but certainly a threat. The NGM does keep things rain, Eta is a mix, and AVN is all snow. The amounts will depend upon timing of the low pressure system transferring its energy to the coastal storm, how much moisture gets wrapped around, and how fast the cold air changes things over (enough "ifs" for you there ;> ? ) The HPC (winter forecasting center) says there is a low risk of > 6" snows for extreme eastern Ohio Sat night into Sunday.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98swbg.gif
- rd

Date: Fri Nov 15, 2002 3:59 pm
Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Nor'easters

Rob, Amber and List:

Mr. Goddard likes those panhandle storms quite a bit too but its seems like more often than not, eastern ohio ends up in the warmer sector and we get mainly rain, and some snow late. As I recall at an AMS meeting not too long ago at the NWS office in Cleveland, Jim Kosarik gave a talk on snow events. I don't want to put words in his mouth so if my memory is bad Jim I apologize. But as I recall, Jim indicated that storms that form in the Louisana area along the coast tend to get their attention since they tend to get pushed farther east leaving us in the cold sector of the storm. These  storms possibly carry a little more moisture from the gulf as well. I couldn't help think about this comment from Jim as we watched the two tropical events this fall come up through the same area (not that they are necessarily related). Its my understanding that the best snow events for eastern ohio (aside from Lake effect) are those storms which move out of the gulf coast area along the west side of the Appalachian Mountains.

Gary L
Ravenna

Date: Fri Nov 15, 2002 5:12 pm
Subject: Re: Nor'easters
 
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 328 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2002...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT... THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST AND COLD AIR OVER THE AREA MAY PRODUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER OUR AREA. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE SNOW AMOUNTS. UNCERTAINTY OF LOW TRACK IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT THE LOW IS JUST FORMING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.


hmmmm. Looks like they are showing an ETA-bias..hopefully the drier AVN doesn't pan out for them..

Matt

Date: Fri Nov 15, 2002 6:45 pm
Subject: PanHandle Hooks

Gary Locke wrote:

"...Jim indicated that storms that form in the Louisana area along the coast tend to get their attention since they tend to get pushed farther east leaving us in the cold sector of the storm..."

My attention, too, when there's 16" of heavy wet snow!

At least for the Medina County area, we're in a PanHandle Hook drought. It's been a long, long time since one dropped 7"+ around these parts.

It's been that much more rare since the weather pattern change of the 1970s.

- Patrick

Date: Sat Nov 16, 2002 3:52 am
Subject: Re: Rain or Snow?


The forcast for Geauga Co. called for a rain/snow mix w/lows in the mid 30's. So far at 3:30am, THere is 1/2" to 3/4" or possibly a little more snow on the ground with a temp. of 31.9 F.

At my place of work at 12:30 am in Willoughby near the Lake, There was rain with an occasional mostly melted wet snowflake mixed in  Along Route 2, a 50/50 mix of rain/snow. At route 90, it was mostly or all snow but not sticking. Within 2-3 mi or so of my home I noticed it sticking, and at home there was a respectable dusting of 0.3" and snowing at a decent rate. Becuase the Lake is still so warm, it seems to be warming that few miles near the shore to the point that rain was the main form of precip. I live about 10 mi. from the Lake as the crow flies but 650 feet higher in elev. so that also may be a factor in who gets a mix and who gets snow (at least in this area).

Vance
THompson 5 SW
OWON #98

Date: Sat Nov 16, 2002 8:12 am
Subject: 1st snow

Hi all:

What a surprise this morning... Woke up to 1/2" of snow covering the grassy areas. I guess I won't have to rake the last of the leaves today!

Chris
NW corner of Toledo, Ohio

Date: Tue Nov 19, 2002 11:47 am
Subject: Forecast Trends


G'Morning, Group,

Have you noticed that forecasts prepared by various sources are in rather strong disagreement as to projected trends for the remainder of the week?

I briefly checked out the models early this morning & have come up with the following forecast ideas for the rest of the week. Right now, I'm basing my thoughts on the MRF/AVN. I know some forecasters are leaning towards the European model. I'm kind of leaning towards the MRF/AVN based on the handling of a key TROF (short wave) dropping southeast out of the Canadian Prairies & closing off in the western Great Lakes (teleconnections kind of favor this happening)..

Look for a decent, but brief slug of arctic air to arrive here late Thursday and continue into Friday of this week. This air will be cold enough to produce meaningful lake-effect (enhanced) snow in the traditional snowbelt areas of northeast Ohio. The bulk of the lake-effect should occur Thursday night and early Friday. During this time a rather strong LOW will move from the lower Great Lakes up the St. Lawrence Seaway. The lake enhancement will get going in the cyclonic circulation on the west/southwest side of the departing LOW.

The MRF/AVN is hinting at a stronger surge of arctic air early next week (after a brief moderation in the cold Saturday and Sunday over our area). Thus, we could be looking at more lake-effect at that time. Right now, it doesn't look like there will be any significant, large scale synoptic snow events for at least the next 7 days. Areas in the snowbelts of northeast Ohio may want to prepare for a good dousing of snow later this week & again next week!

Any other thoughts or ideas on the upcoming trends?!

More later!
Matt

Date: Tue Nov 19, 2002 12:53 pm
Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Forecast Trends


Hi Matt;
What I have noticed is that the forecasts have been messed up more than carwindows on the night of Halloween, if you know what I mean? Last week a TV forecaster in Cleveland was really promoting an above normal pattern for temperatures for much of THIS week. LOL! Needless to say it hasn't developed and I don't see it developing right now. What's the saying... never trust a forecast 36-48 HRS in advance during the fall and winter in Ohio? Yup, looks that way. I can boast the fact that I predicted last weekends "major snowfall", or lack of, rather correctly. I did spot the first flakes of snow at 8:26 p.m. Sunday night, but really nothing else other than that. And wow, quite a wrap around behind that major Nor' Easter, huh? Lake effect snows? :-) I think I'll stick with the current trend... cool, damp and green (or brown, depending where you live.) If there is a lake effect event for NE OH and NW PA anytime soom, I will gladly eat crow. But I really think alot of forecasters are crying wolf. The problem with that is, once it finally comes around to developing, many people will think the forecast was bull to begin with. Why? Beause of all those LE snows that never developed. Just my three cents on this one.
Don Keating

Date: Tue Nov 19, 2002 4:09 pm
Subject: Re: Forecast Trends

Matt and Group:

Matt, I think I'm seeing about the same thing you are with a surface low diving southeast out of the upper Plains and moving over the Ohio Valley late Thursday/early Friday. Then that low gets absorbed by an Atlantic coastal low late Saturday (another nor'easter?) It looks like the cold air Friday and Saturday will be cold enough coming over the lakes to produce some lake-effect snow but nothing synoptic. Then things relax a bit until...

Further down the road it looks like the mother lode of cold air comes down about Tuesday of next week. With an upper low over Quebec and strong high pressure at the surface in the central Plains becoming established it would seem most of us, especially in the northern part of the state may get a varying degree of accumulation before its over. I also notice the models put a "shallow" surface low over eastern Kentucky Monday night and over western Pennsylvania Tuesday morning but doesn't appear significant. I think when you see low pressure in that area it always gets ones attention though. I'm thinking since this low doesn't show up in the models until late in the period by the time it gets near us is that it will be "moisture- starved" and not be much of a concern.

Don, I agree with you on one not wanting to stick their neck out too far. I don' think anyone can look too far ahead especially this time of year with the transition in seasons. Other thoughts?

Jack

Date: Tue Nov 19, 2002 9:10 pm
Subject: RE: [OhioWx] Forecast Trends


Hi Don & Group, 

Couldn't agree with you more! But it's fun to try and outguess "Ma Nature" from time to time. Actually, I'll take your sentiments a step further & say that you can't generate a SPECIFIC forecast more than 48 hours out without a high confidence factor at ANY time of the year. While this sediment holds for trying to predict specific disturbances in a particular pattern, the accuracy rate for the long-range predictions in identifying overall pattern changes really isn't as bad as it seems. The key to getting a "good feel" for a pattern change is when the spread of model  converge on a particular solution. When this happens you get a decent feeling that something is up to watch out for. Right now, the models (MRF, Ensembles, GBL, European, NOGAPS) are converging on a solution that will introduce a cold pattern for much of the eastern U.S. next week. We'll see!
Just my 0.01 cent worth..
Matt
Date: Tue Nov 19, 2002 9:52 pm
Subject: Re: Forecast Trends

I agree, and the trend is looking colder up to 14 days out, in fact rather dramatically so from Climate Prediction Center. I do notice one thing, and I wonder what you and others think. Models tend to miss, and in repetitive patterns they can miss the same way. Last year, there was a winter-long tendency to try to bring in cold air, which seldom materialized and made those prone to hype look bad often. For the past few weeks the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks have been above normal. Except for tornado Sunday, that was mainly a bust considering how it was depicted. It's too early to say, but is this a tendency? While you can't judge a winter pattern by the transitional months, this fall has been anything but the predicted warm and dry so far. I have had about 250% normal rain since Sept. 1 and cool weather. With a relative weak El Nino, the energized storm track could have some cold air to work with. It's all a bunch of wild cards, but I don't yet see the warm dry winter. This is not, to be clear, a prediction of a late 70's winter. That would suprise me, I'm just not convinced of the warm and dry yet.

Ronald Rothhaas

Date:  Wed Nov 20, 2002  1:39 pm
Subject:  Forecast Trends Continued

Ron (and Group):

You're right on with your analysis of last winter. Yes, the models (particularly the MRF) were persistant with trying to bring in cold air and didn't do a very good job. The model of choice last winter was actually the European model which did a decent job handled the overall pattern rather well.

Yes, I think we are seeing a trend in the overall 500 mb pattern over the past 6 weeks. Looking at the average pattern since the second week of October there has been a mean TROF over the eastern U.S. and ridging of varying strength over the western U.S. (your classic PNA configuration). Is this typical for the beginning of an El Nino winter? There really isn't a specific answer to that question. If I recall correctly the winter of 1997-1998 was a strong El Nino year and it did start out with a cold and rather snowy November & early December, a very mild late December, January and February and a near normal March.

I'm not a big fan of using El Nino as a long-term forecasting tool for the winter season. I think the media (and some forecasters) were very impressed with the outcome of the forecasts for the 1997-98 winter season which turned out accurately for temperature (but not necessarily so for precipitation). Yes, there is correlation to a strong El Nino year and a milder than average winter in the northern U.S., but the key here is a strong El Nino. This year's El Nino isn't nearly as strong as the one in 1997-98 so boldly predicting a mild winter this year for the northern U.S. based on the presence of a weaker El Nino could be too presumptuous.

In summary, I agree with your assessment that this winter may not be as "mild and dry" as the NCDC's seasonal forecast may indicate...

Any other thoughts out there?

Matt Higgins
 
Date:  Thu Nov 21, 2002  4:58 pm
Subject:  Trends on Track

Group:

Looking at this mornings models and a short-range model this afternoon, it would appear things are on track. The 19z (2pm) RUC model has a 1005mb (29.68") low pressure area over northern Indiana and deepens it to 998mb (29.47") by late tonight by the time it gets to eastern Ohio late tonight. (My barometer has dropped .2" of an inch since 8am this morning.) Temperatures were in the upper 30's @4pm in western Indiana/Michigan.

I think depending on the timing with the transition from rain to snow overnight, many of us may see 1-2" by tomorrow night especially in the northern half of the state. I'm thinking the lake-effect will kick in by tomorrow night which will make for heavier amounts in the snowbelts.

Looks like things will relax from about Sunday through Tuesday as the upper air pattern flattens out then the real cold air starts coming in about Wednesday morning and continues right through next weekend when an upper-level Low becomes anchored over James Bay and drags the cold air down. My present thinking is the snowbelts could have some fairly good accumulations by next weekend.

Confidence levels with some of the models are still on the low side but the last few runs have been fairly consistent except for a so- called nor'easter by the weekend appears that it may be too far out to effect the east coast.

Most everything is based upon my very own personal thoughts and feelings so the personal thoughts and feelings from the rest of you would be most welcome. I'm sure all you snow lovers will have your face pressed against the window over the next several days (ha,ha) Have a good evening!

Jack
 
Date: Thu Nov 21, 2002 7:54 pm
Subject: Re: Trends on Track

Speaking of rain, we're getting a thunderstorm here now. Noticed some heavy action on radar moving through the local area now. I'm looking forward to the first real snow of the season. Now that the holiday season is just about upon us, a little "white" precipitation sure would be festive.

I take it your going away for Thanksgiving, Liz? If you are, I hope you have a great Holiday!

Thanks for the forecast discussion, Jack! Up until now I haven't had a chance to check out any data (besides the radar). It looks like the MRF did a decent job with this LOW heading into the Ohio Valley. I've noticed that the NWS zone forecasts are not so bullish on the snow for the weekend. On the weather radio, they were talking about 1-3 inches of snow for NE inland OH for Friday and Friday night on a Special Weather Statement, but the zone forecast for the area is calling for partly cloudy skies Friday night and less than an inch of snowfall during the day Friday?! Go Figure!

Matt

Date: Thu Nov 21, 2002 9:07 pm
Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Re: Trends on Track


Matt writes........
Speaking of rain, we're getting a thunderstorm here now. Noticed some heavy action on radar moving through the local area now. Yea, we had thunder and lightning on and off between 715 and 8 p.m. One bolt struck just out the
window to my SW. YIKES!!!

I'm looking forward to the first real snow of the season. Now that the holiday season is just about upon us, a little "white" precipitation sure would be festive. OK, bring on the snow for the Holidays. After January 1, bring on El Nino!! (The warmth of it!)
 
Thanks for the forecast discussion, Jack! Up until now I haven't had a chance to check out any data (besides the radar). It looks like the MRF did a decent job with this LOW heading into the Ohio Valley. I've noticed that the NWS zone forecasts are not so bullish on the snow for the weekend. On the weather radio, they were talking about 1-3 inches of snow for NE inland OH for Friday and Friday night on a Special Weather Statement, but the zone forecast for the area is calling for partly cloudy skies Friday night and less than an inch of snowfall during the day Friday?! Go Figure! Matt Go figure? Nah, I think that's par for the course so far this Fall Matt. The way I see it, the NWS forecasts have been as far off as my Golf game, and I don't play golf. Amazing how the same NWS forecasters that are calling for 1-3" of inland snow MISSED the Thunderstorms. I mean, were they in the forecast earlier today? I don't recall seeing them. I thought it kinda funny... the PGH office updated their forecast page just after 7 p.m. which included T'Storms for tonight, lol!! Good one. Again, I'll stick my neck out for my part of Ohio and say that I don't see daytimes highs falling much below the 40 degree mark this weekend AND very little, if any snow accumulation. I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong, but we'll see. Oh yea, my NWS comments aren't aimed at Jim K. on this list or any other NWS forecaster... it's aimed at the computers making the forecasts. ;-)
Don Keating
Date: Fri Nov 22, 2002 3:17 am
Subject: Re: Trends on Track



Matt, etc.,

I've occasionally noticed a difference between the zone forcast and the new graphical forcast on the Cleveland NWS. That graphical forcast is experimental but seems to have been fairly accurate so far. I suppose we ought to better trust the zone forcast for now. I  thought that the zone forcast and the weather radio forcast was thesame text.

That forcast as of tonight was only calling for an inch Fri. and "little accumulation" Fri. night, But since the lake-effect is involved I'm expecting anywhere between a trace and 20 inches.

Vance

Date:  Fri Nov 22, 2002  5:41 am
Subject:  Thundersnow!

Hi all:

At 5am this morning, we had 2 lightning flashes. At the time, it was snowing hard... We now have 2" of snow on the grassy areas, and the streets are also mostly white. Looks like winter just arrived! :-)

Chris Taylor
NW corner of Toledo, Ohio
 
Date: Fri Nov 22, 2002 6:45 am
Subject: Thundersnow.....



thunderstorm at 6am with several flashes of lightning and rolling thunder.....snowfall since midnight 3.5 inches with 3 on the ground....as i write at 638 am another thunderstorm trees and wires heavy with snow.... temperature 30 degrees winds north 19 gusts to 24......

mike bielski
toledo 5 ne
ne lucas co.
point place

Date:  Fri Nov 22, 2002  7:05 am
Subject:  snow here!

This morning as I got up (5:20 a.m) I look out my window just to see if there would be a DUSTING of snow on the ground.  And there was close to 2" of NEW fallen snow on the ground & windy.  (Could someone call the N.W.S. & tell them that DUSTING isn't 1"-2" of snow.  That what our local weather person here in North West Ohio was forecasting.)  The snow was still coming down at that time.  It's now 6:57 a.m. an still light snow is still arriving.  The out side temperature been hanging at 30 to 31 degree's.   So far it look like we didn't get to much ICE with this system, as it come into our area Thursday night.  On my way to Findlay, Thursday night my wife & my freind told me that they seen Lighten!  But when they seen it, we were having just light rain, at that time.  Sure there was report of a thundershower in the area earlier that afternoon, but that was to the south of this reporting station.  Like Dayton a places like that.  Our rain gague is showing 0.18" of rain in the gague, so it must be a WET snow. It's now 7:02 a.m. & it still coming down with the out side temperature of 30 degree's, the rel. Hum. is @ 100% & dew point is @ 30 degree's.  So it look like this is going to be with us for a little bit longer.  Have fun in this snow & take care when driving.
4-E
Putnam, Co.
Date: Fri Nov 22, 2002 8:24 am
Subject: Mixed Precipitation in Lodi @ 7 AM



G'Morning, Group:

When I took the dogs out this morning at approximately 7 AM there was a mix of light rain and snow. Temperature was 36 F. Looks like the rain/snow changeover line at that time was just to my west. Radar still showed a decent area of precipitation back over the central lakeshore & central highlands area and that will probably move into northeast Ohio this morning.

Mike, Chris & Phil, Just as a sidenote I watched a TV Meteorologist last night in Cleveland (Dick Goddard on Fox 8) and he said that northwest Ohio had the potential to pick up 2 to 4 inches of snow last night! Looks like he was right. The local forecast for Medina County was calling for rain to mix with snow this afternoon with little or no accumulation, but it's already mixing with snow at 7 AM. Maybe we'll get a little more of the white stuff than what they're saying (hopefully!).

Picked up 0.47 inch of rain so far from this episode at home (including the thunderstorm observed between 7-8 PM yesterday).

Matt Higgins
Lodi 2S

Date: Fri Nov 22, 2002 9:03 am
Subject: Snow



Matt and all:

Just read your email and looked out and the rain has just switched to snow here in Brunswick at 9 a.m. as the temp dropped to 36.

Rain was 0.48" here and we had a couple of cracks of thunder yesterday evening that rattled the windows and shook the doors.

Amber
PS - Thanks to everyone for all the info on the Nor'easters.
Date: Fri Nov 22, 2002 9:40 am
Subject: thundersnow



The snow has ended here in toledo but as of 9 am we have 5 inches on the ground...two thunderstorms occurred .... one at 6 am and another just after 630 am lots of lightning flashes and rolling thunder......temperature here 31 degrees and the snow as stuck to everything, wires, trees, and fences, plied high...would make for a great postcard...

mike bielski
toledo 5 ne
ne lucas co.
point place

Date: Fri Nov 22, 2002 11:22 am
Subject: Revised NWS Forecast & 11 AM Observation

Hi Group:

The NWS revised their forecasts for the central lakeshore, east lakeshore, and northeast inland portions of Ohio for this afternoon. 2 to 4 inches of white holiday cheer is now expected over the central lakeshore & northeast inland areas this afternoon with 1 to 3 inches over the east lakeshore counties. The east lakeshore counties may pick up another 1 to 2 inches tonight. At 11 AM in Eaton Township (Lorain County) moderate snow and blowing snow is observed with the visibility reduced to about 0.5 mile and a decent coating of snow is on the ground.

This first real snow of the season out here!

Matt Higgins

Date:  Fri Nov 22, 2002  11:19 am
Subject:  Message from a 2way device

Group, The snow is ending here in Springfield. Total as of 11 a.m. was 2.2 inches. Total liquid precipitation was .42 inch. Peak wind gust thus far at 26 m.p.h.. Temperature at 32 degrees. Sun breaking through clouds. Dick Groeber.
Springfield 2. O.W.O.N. 1.

 
Date: Fri Nov 22, 2002 3:44 pm
Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Snow


Hi List;
Rain changed to snow down here just after sunrise. It has been rain, snow or a mix all day. Total accumulation thus far.... ZERO. :-)
Don Keating
Newcomerstown 1S

Date:  Fri Nov 22, 2002  5:12 pm
Subject:  Re: Trends on Track

Don,
I noticed that the ETA for 00Z showed most of eastern & NE Ohio with a lifted Index of 0 to -1.With the instability and the dynamics present with the low in the state, I think it couldn't have hurt to put the mentioning of thunder in the forecast.

Dan
 
Date: Fri Nov 22, 2002 5:14 pm
Subject: Re: Trends on Track

Matt,
I had a thunderstorm at 2130 last night.Rain was moderate to
heavy at times.

Dan

Date: Fri Nov 22, 2002 5:25 pm
Subject: Macedonia Snowfall

Group,
As of 4:00 PM this afternoon I picked up 1.1" of snow.The precip. changed around 10:00 AM.It has been snowing lightly since.Roads are slushy to covered.No salt trucks observed yet.Low barometer of 999.5 mb at 3:40 AM.

Dan
Macedonia 2ESE
Summit County

Date: Fri Nov 22, 2002 6:20 pm
Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Re: Trends on Track

Hi Dan;
I agree, no doubt. The point I was trying to make, and maybe I stated it incorrectly, was that the NWS office at PGH evidently threw in the mention of T'Storms after they had developed and were moving through the area. I'm not being especially picky of late, though it may appear that way, but I would really like to see stations like WJW Fox 8 drop the 8 day forecast.... that's just too far in advance for this time of year. Problem is, 'most' people take it at face value, meaning they believe 8 days from today, whatever is depicted on the graphic, will happen. I could care less what they all forecast with their 7or 8 day outlooks or whatever. But, how many times do people on the street say to you, "well, I see Thanksgiving next week will be bitterly cold!" :-)
Thanks for writing.
Don Keating

Date: Fri Nov 22, 2002 6:22 pm
Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Macedonia Snowfall

Hi Dan!!
Hey, for those of us who do not have conversion charts in front of us, what does 999.5mb translate to?
Something like 29.50" isn't it? I think 1000mb is 29.52". Am I correct??
Don Keating

Date: Fri Nov 22, 2002 7:20 pm
Subject: Snowfall at Lodi 2S

G'Evening, Group:
Snowfall at Lodi 2S as of 7 PM this evening has been 1.7 inches. There is currently a light snow shower in progress and the temperature is 32 F.
Matt Higgins
Lodi 2S
Date:  Sat Nov 23, 2002  2:26 am
Subject:  snow

Hey everyone,

I got 4.0" snow today. Only 10 mi. to the north they recieved no snow at all. Currently at 2:20am, it is mostly cloudy, temp. 29.3 F, snow depth is 4 inches.

By the way in my last note I forcasted that we would get between a trace and 20 inches of snow. 4 inches falls within this range so I was accurate!

Vance
Thompson 5 SW
OWON # 98
 
Date: Sat Nov 23, 2002 4:41 pm
Subject: Next Week

Group:

After Monday, it still looks like it's going to be a cold week. This mornings models seem to show colder air surging back in Tuesday with a strong high pressure system (1043mb-30.80") dropping south from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. It kind of wobbles around the same area along with low pressure over Hudson Bay pulling cold air into the area at least until next Sunday.

Although it hasn't been completely ruled out, the storm (aka nor'easter) along the East Coast appears to be less and less of a concern. In fact, any kind of "general" snow appears unlikely through most of next week except maybe for some light snow late Monday or early Tuesday when the coldfront comes in. However, with about five or six days of cold air coming off the open waters of the Great Lakes, many of the snowbelts could be seeing some pretty hefty snowfall amounts.

Other thoughts or prognostications?

Jack

Date: Sat Nov 23, 2002 6:07 pm
Subject: Message from a 2way device



Group, The forecast low temperatures over the flat hills and the plains are in the teens for monday morning. That frigid air should overtake this area for much of next week.It should moderate some but still look for lows in the 2os. Dick
Groeber. Springfield 2.
O.W.O.N? 1.

Date: Sat Nov 23, 2002 8:19 pm
Subject: question

Here's one for you. This afternoon I was at the I-X Center. There was no snow on the ground whatsoever,BUT at layer at least 1/2 inch thick had stuck to the sides of the telephone poles and trees. (The ground was simply too warm to allow for snow accumulation). What is the snow depth there.

Date:  Sat Nov 23, 2002  10:04 pm
Subject:  information
 
Well with storm is NOW out of the area & the people are trying to get back to normal.  We ended up with 4.5" of snowfall on the ground Friday morning & there wasn't hardly any ice.  But there sure was alot of vehicle's off the side of the road & school's was close.   Just because the county around the area didn't have there equipment put on yet.  Like they say, they got catch with there plants down.  Pandora, just 5 miles to the south of here got 6" of snowfall.
But Columbus Grove got 4.4" of snowfall, with is to the West of Pandora, Oh.. 
Today information
Today Hi-38
Set reading-38
Low-19
Baro. @ 9:30p.m. 29.72R 

Winds-WSW-11 G-25 Sky was Mtly. CLdy. With 3.5" of snow remining on the ground. 

The ground temperature is still @ 58.8 degree's. Remember this is at 9:30 p.m. 

"WAY TO GO OHIO STATE! KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!
4-E
Putnam, Co.
 
Date: Sat Nov 23, 2002 10:24 pm
Subject: Re: Macedonia Snowfall

Don,
The conversion is easy.You're close, just remember that 1000mb = 29.53".So, if you have inches divide that number by 29.53" and this will give you bars.Move the decimal three places to the right and you have millibars. If you have millibars, take that number and multiply by 29.53".Take this number and move the decimal to the left three places and now you have inches for your barometric reading.


Dan

Date:  Sat Nov 23, 2002  10:37 pm
Subject:  Re: question

Vance,
If I'm the observer there I'm recording a zero.

Dan
 

Date: Mon Nov 25, 2002 3:55 pm
Subject: Winter Storm Watch

Looks like the NWS in Pittsburgh is busy this afternoon!

WINTER STORM WATCH ALLEGHENY PA-ARMSTRONG PA-BEAVER PA-BELMONT OH-BROOKE WV-BUTLER PA- CARROLL OH-CLARION PA-COLUMBIANA OH-COSHOCTON OH-FAYETTE PA- FOREST PA-GREENE PA-GUERNSEY OH-HANCOCK WV-HARRISON OH-INDIANA PA- JEFFERSON PA-JEFFERSON OH-LAWRENCE PA-MARION WV-MARSHALL WV- MERCER PA-MONONGALIA WV-MONROE OH-MUSKINGUM OH-NOBLE OH-OHIO WV- TUSCARAWAS OH-VENANGO PA-WASHINGTON PA-WESTMORELAND PA-WETZEL WV- 335 PM EST MON NOV 25 2002

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION STARTS TO WIND DOWN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT IMMINENT. AS THE TRACK OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM BECOMES MORE EVIDENT...WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. TRAVEL TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS...SO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

Something to keep our eyes on......

Matt Higgins

Date: Mon Nov 25, 2002 8:20 pm
Subject: Winter Storm Watch Forecast

All,
A decent 500mb shortwave with its' attendant vorticity maximum is forecast(ETA model) to move through Ohio from late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning.Strong upward motion(forcing) ahead of this feature will result in snow in Ohio.Final amounts I'm thinking, will depend on how much overunning moisture we observe over the state ahead of the Vort. max.Let us observe!

Dan
Macedonia 2ESE
Summit County

Date: Mon Nov 25, 2002 8:37 pm
Subject: RE: [OhioWx] Winter Storm Watch Forecast

Dan and All,

ETA also showing a decent slug of moisture progged to advect into SE Ohio Tuesday evening and Tuesday night (mean RH over 90% progged for southeast OH by 00Z Wednesday. MOS guidance indicates 93%+ for SE Ohio at 06Z Wednesday). That combined with the dynamics you stated should do the trick. I also checked the old AVN and it seems to be in decent agreement with the ETA but a little quicker with the VORT (28 units isn't too shabby by the way!). If models hold east central & southeast OH may do some shoveling. The speed of the system, however, makes me wonder about the 6-inch snowfall estimate given in the forecast by Pittsburgh. That may be a bit overdone. I wouldn't be surprised to see 3-4 inches over parts of east-central & southeast Ohio Tuesday night.

What does anyone else think?

Matt

Date: Mon Nov 25, 2002 9:03 pm
Subject: Re: Winter Storm Watch Forecast

Since my nickname is the homesick eskimo, I'm tired of reading all these accounts of thundersnow and 6 inches. All I've seen is VERY light flurries. We do have a special weather statement for 1 to 3, more likely 1 to 2, inches Tuesday PM and night. I'm ready! And I'm not really upset with your accounts, just jealous.

Ron Rothhaas
Cincinnati

Date: Mon Nov 25, 2002 9:03 pm
Subject: Re: Winter Storm Watch Forecast

Higgs,
Looks good.I just checked the AVN,NGM,& UKMET models too and they also prog'd the same moisture.I also checked the depth of the moisture.100% RH from 850 mb to 500 mb.All of Ohio should see a perio  of snow from this.Strongest lift is where you indicated thus the heavier snowfall.NGM has the system moving the slowest.This is one of those events where the surface pressure won't be terribly impressive but you could still get a decent event out of it.

Dan

Date: Mon Nov 25, 2002 9:17 pm
Subject: Message from a 2way device



Group, I'm looking for 2 to 3 inches here in Springfield with higher amounts east and southeast. Looks like a white and cold thanksgiving. What do you make of the unusually early cold temperatures. Is this a prelude to an unusually cold winter?
Dick Groeber. Springfield 2.
O.W.O.N. 1.

Date: Mon Nov 25, 2002 9:26 pm
Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Message from a 2way device

Hello Dick;
Good question / point! In my own opinion, I'm now thinking we're gonna remain below normal temperature- wise, UNTIL somewhere between the end of December to the middle of January. I think there'll be a majoy change in the temperature pattern with it going to the above normal side for at least 5 to 6 weeks. Just my opinion, which is probably off by a mile!
Don Keating

Date: Mon Nov 25, 2002 9:38 pm
Subject: Re: [OhioWx] a weather DOG!

That's cool Phil!! Give that dog a bone!! I personally don't have a dog. But I just go by gut feeling and instinct. I can't explain it. I was successful in forecasting the non LE snow event of two weeks ago, and the non LE snow event of this past weekend. I nearly lost it when Ohio had all that snow in NW and western Ohio, but I got that one right for us too. I'm sure I'll miss somewhere along the line. This little snow event that's being predicted for Tuesday night and Wednesday... that's a surprise to me. As I sit here at 9:35 p.m. it's 27 degrees and the pressure is 30.32 and rising. I heard one forecaster say today at noon that the high pressure in the Mississippi river area was expected to remain there. If so, the pressure rise doesn't indicate that, does it? Oh well, we shall know 48 hours from now.
Don Keating

Date: Mon Nov 25, 2002 10:47 pm
Subject: Short-term Forecast Mon Nov 25 2002 10:45 p.m.

A potentially significant snowstorm is forecasted for most of the Midwest and Northeast. Winter storm watches are already in effect from eastern Ohio to New England as a storm gets perched and ready to produce problems by Wednesday. The low pressure system should start develop early tomorrow and snow should be falling in Missouri and southern Illinois by late morning. Snow will spread up through Ohio to western Pennsylvania by late Tuesday. Heavier snows are forecasted to fall further inland and in higher elevations as the low moves up the coast by Wednesday, areas around New York and Philadelphia will be seeing snow by early Wednesday. The snow could cause travel problems and flight delays at that time depending on the intensity of this storm.

Date: Tue Nov 26, 2002 6:50 am
Subject: Winter Weather Advisory

Good morning, all,

Looks like we could be in for some snow today. Just heard a local forecaster say that it could possibly start as rain, which could make for a nasty rush hour.

Barb
Middletown OH
34 degrees, cloudy

Date: Tue Nov 26, 2002 12:17 pm
Subject: Upcoming Event

Group:
Looking at the RUC model at 15z(10 am) and the 12z (7am) ETA model doesn't convince me that there will be significant snowfall in Ohio over the next 24 hours. Neither one of the models reflect a surface low during that time. Also, liquid amounts at most only show .1"-.2" in extreme southeast Ohio and .01" over the rest of the state. It looks like the heavier amounts of snow of 3"-4" will be over western Pennsylvania and the West Virginia panhandle.

So, my guesstimation for snowfall will be 2" max for extreme southeast Ohio and 1" max for the rest of us. Does anyone else interpret things differently?

Jack

Date: Tue Nov 26, 2002 1:24 pm
Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Upcoming Event


Hi Jack;
Looking at the 1 p.m. SFC OBS, SAT and Radar images, I'm not impressed. I agree with you, 1" and MAYBE a spot or two with 2". The storm may deepen once it approaches the eastern US coast, but it looks pretty dull to me. Currently here it is 37 degrees.
Don Keating
Newcomerstown

Date: Tue Nov 26, 2002 2:28 pm
Subject: 2 PM Observations-Eaton Township (Lorain County)

Group,

I'm noticing that cloud ceilings have been lowering here in central Lorain county over the past 2-3 hours. Thickening altostratus and stratocumulus currently observed along with light northeast winds.

Current radar imagery showing precipitation slowly increasing over the State.

Matt Higgins

Date: Tue Nov 26, 2002 2:52 pm
Subject: Re: [OhioWx] 2 PM Observations-Eaton Township (Lorain County)


Matt;
At 2:40 p.m. radar from PGH showed the second level of green over us, but nothing is hitting the ground. Apparently the atmosphere isn't juiced enough yet because it's virga.
Don Keating

Date: Tue Nov 26, 2002 4:40 pm
Subject: Snow

The snow began at about 3:30 p.m. today and is snowing moderately.

I'd like to have a training session on reading maps too!

Amber
Brunswick 2NE
Medina County

Date: Tue Nov 26, 2002 5:43 pm
Subject: WINTER TRENDS

It happenned again. Monday the climate prediction center 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks called for a big warm up over a large part of the country. Today the 6 to 10 day reverts to a large area of below normal and the 8 to 14 calls for a much diminished warming. Anyone see a pattern here?
Also, our snow was a bust. It's about over and I'm just shy of an inch. It's pretty and there may be another quick shot but this AM NWS was calling for 2 to 4 here. Not close. Steve Horstmeyer has stuck with a dusting NW to 3 inches far east. He wins this one.

Ron Rothhaas
Cincinnati

Date: Tue Nov 26, 2002 5:54 pm
Subject: trace

hello group,
here in Toledo NE lucas co. near the michigan line there has
only been a trace of snow thru 5 pm.....
high today here was ....... 34 @ 102 pm
low this morning was....... 24 @ 436 am
current temperature is...... 30 @ 520 pm
with very Lt. snow, winds NE @ 11 MPH

mike bielski
Toledo 5 ne
NE lucas co.
point place

Date: Tue Nov 26, 2002 8:48 pm
Subject: daily report

Well the snow got in here about 2:45 p.m. & didn't really stop till 8: p.m. from the time it started to now (8:39 p.m.) we had right around 1" + or -. Onces again puppy raise the roof. He started in around 12:30 p.m. & really got going around 1:30 p.m., before I left to go to town to mail a letter he wasn't really barking to much, but it was just started in snowing very light, at that time. Right now the baro. is 30.08R at a rate of .02 & the outside temperature is 27F, with our hi of 32F at 1:06 p.m., our low was 27, which is our temperature right now. The Davis is showing .04" of precip., with very lite winds out of WNW 1 M.P.H.. I am thinking we may just get another 1" or snow before the system move out of the area Wednesday p.m. I really think the N.W.S. should use aniamals to forecast the weather instead of comptutors & thing's like that. Amianals can hit it better then our local weather man can around here anyway's.
4-E
Putnam, Co.

Date: Wed Nov 27, 2002 10:21 am
Subject: Lodi 2S Snowfall

Hi Group:

Snowfall for the 24-hour period at 7 AM today at Lodi 2S was 2.5 inches. There is currently 2 inches of snow on the ground. Snow showers of varying intensity occurred at the station between 6-7 AM. We're actually getting a little lake-effect snow in the Lodi area this morning due to north winds off Lake Huron and Lake Erie!

Matt Higgins
Lodi 2S
Medina/Wayne County Border

Date: Wed Nov 27, 2002 2:40 pm
Subject:

Thompson 5 SW 2:30pm 11/27/02

Snowfall here so far has been light. 1.5" fell overnight. Since then snow has been in the form of frequent, brief light showers, although a brief shower of more moderate intensity just recently passed through here. Approx. another 1/4" snow has fallen since my 9:30 am snow report. Currently the temp. is 28.9 F with light snow.

Vance Lunn
Thompson 5 SW
OWON # 98

Date:  Wed Nov 27, 2002  2:43 pm
Subject:  Message from a 2way device

Hi group! Snowfall in Springfield totaled 2 inches melted to .17 inch water began tuesday at 2:30 p.m. and ended wednesday at 4:00 a.m.. The low temperature here was 25 degrees recorded at 9:30 a.m..Curremtly at 33 degrees with partly cloudy skies at 2:45 p.m..
Dick Groeber. Springfield 2.
O.W.O.N. 1. P.S. Happy thanksging all!
 

Date: Thu Nov 28, 2002 4:43 pm
Subject: Record Low


At 3:44 a.m. Thursday November 28, 2002 a record low temperature was established. The previous record low was 20 set in 1996. The new record low is 16 degrees.
Don Keating #106
Newcomerstown 1S

Date: Thu Nov 28, 2002 9:39 pm
Subject: Re: Happy Thanksgiving

Don,
Same to you.Last night low temp. of 17 deg.

Dan

Date: Fri Nov 29, 2002 9:43 am
Subject: Bomb Cyclone!

Group,
Check this out. Bomb cyclone just WSW of James Bay. Lowest surface pressure I can find is 978.1mb.That's 28.88" !!! See link of latest surface chart for E.Canada.Did you notice your barometers / barographs this morning?

Dan

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_ecan.html

Date: Fri Nov 29, 2002 1:07 pm
Subject: Message from a 2way device

Group, Dan: I can see the effects of that deep low by Hudson bay. Sharp warmup ahead of its cold front and sharp cold blast behind it. Also the gusty winds we're experiencing. Dick Groeber. Springfield 2. O.W.O.N. 1.

Date: Fri Nov 29, 2002 4:44 pm
Subject: Re: Bomb Cyclone!

Dan,

Yes, see what you mean! Looked at my barograph and the pressure here dropped .5" over a 12-hour period from 30.00" @midnight to 29.50" @noon. Guess that explains for the pretty strong winds with such atight pressure gradient over the northeast quadrant of the U.S. Just checked the surface chart at 3pm and it went down a little more to 28.82" (976mb).

Jack

Date:  Fri Nov 29, 2002  11:50 pm
Subject:  Bomb cyclone observation

Hello folks,

While I was blissfully unaware of the bomb cyclone due to family visits, I certainly observed quite cold and blustery weather in Reading, Pennsylvania (19609), which in hindsight must have been related to the bomb cyclone near James Bay. However, by this evening at 10:30 I arrived in Ossining, NY (10562), and while it is cold here, the wind has died down.

I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving, and please wish me good weather for my flight back on Sunday morning!

Cheers,
Liz
 
Date:  Sat Nov 30, 2002  8:32 am
Subject:  pellets

goodmorning group,
Snow pellets began here in toledo at 8:15 am.....
temperature.......... 36
pellets continue as i write at 8:29 am..

mike bielski
Toledo 5 NE
NE lucas co. ( near mich. line )
point place
 

 

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