Synoptic Climatology

Synoptic, "same view", refers to taking a snapshot of the state of the atmosphere at any one given time. While synoptic meteorology uses this snapshot in real-time weather analysis and forecasting, with synoptic climatology, we generally take a longer-term, more holistic view. What is today's weather pattern like? When have we seen this before? How often does it occur?

There are many uses for such activities. Synoptic climatology can be used to identify changes in atmospheric circulation, or cyclical patterns. It can also be utilized to look at any associations the atmospheric circulation has with the surface environment, be it insect populations, human health, snow cover, or agriculture. It is in the application of our understanding of the atmosphere to a better understanding of the surface environment that many synoptic climatologists assert is at the heart of our discipline.

One commonality of virtually all synoptic climatological studies is that they involve the classification or grouping of different types of atmospheric circulation. This is where I come in. My dissertation work was based upon the redevelopment of one such classification scheme. The Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) takes in surface weather observations for a station and classifies them into one of seven weather types. The redevelopment on which I worked resulted in day-by-day "calendars" of weather types being available for over 320 stations in the US and Canada for periods of up to 65 years. Over 7,000,000 days have been classified. Though the primary focus has been North America, it has also been exported to western Europe as well as several other cities around the globe.

If you're interested in knowing more about the SSC, I've set up the Spatial Synoptic Classification information page for that purpose.

The SSC has already been utilized as a tool in much research (a bibliography can be found at the link above). I have worked on weather-type variability across different teleconnections (such as El Nino), the change in weather-type frequencies over time, how the urban heat island varies according to weather type, as well as variability in atmospheric aerosol concentrations across North America. Others have incorporated the SSC into assessments of variability in snow cover, snow water-equivalent, forest regeneration, and atmospheric pollution transport, among others.

Students of mine have also utilized the SSC in their work. Dr. Jason Senkbeil utilized the SSC in his dissertation as part of his assessment of irrigation's influences on precipitation in the Great Plains. He also utilized the SSC in evaluating tree-ring growth in Alabama as a follow up to his master's thesis work. A couple of other students have also utilized the SSC in applications to human health, to be discussed more below.

Climate and human health

My main applied climatological interest is in bioclimatology, specifically the impacts of climate upon human health. My main contribution in this regard is in working on the development and implementation of heat watch-warning systems for more than 25 cities worldwide, including Rome, Toronto, Phoenix, Dayton, Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Chicago. These systems are all based on analyzing patterns of how human health in each locale in the past varied by weather conditions. The SSC has been used here, and large differences among the weather types have appeared. From city to city, the oppressive weather type varies. In an extreme case, one weather type in Shanghai is associated with over 40 deaths above the normal daily level. These systems, once developed, can forecast if weather conditions over the next two or three days may fall into one of these "offensive" categories. The forecast output goes to a webpage (see example on right), which is then read by weather forecasters as well as civic and health agencies.

After working on heat warning systems for a number of years, I wondered if people actually listened. To answer this question, thanks to an EPA grant, I was able to interview 900 people over age 65 in Toronto, Philadelphia, Dayton, and Phoenix, to gauge their perception of heat vulnerability. The results showed that while the majority of people knew that there was a heat warning in place, only around half changed their behavior. Moreover, even though people tended to recall more specific advice, few people did anything other than "stay inside." I hope to further explore this issue of vulnerability perception, especially a comparison between urban and rural residents.

Working with several other researchers as part of the Union of Concerned Scientists, over the past year I've participated in several different means of assessing future heat-related health problems with the output from Global Circulation Model-projections of future weather conditions. We have just received a contract from the state of California to pursue more detailed future estimates, incorporating acclimatization and demographic changes.

A number of my students have looked at climate and health issues. Dr. Tim Dolney completed his master's thesis with me, looking at ambulance call patterns in Toronto on hot days; Mr. Paul Butke evaluated the spatial variability of crime across Cleveland in relation to weather conditions. Presently, Ms. Candace Olszak is following the Kent State football team, evaluating their perceptions of weather and its effects on their game.

Earth science education

Working on a three-year NSF-funded proposal with Dr. Munro-Stasiuk in Geography, and Drs. Ortiz and Witter in Geology, I've assisted in the development and implementation of inquiry-based learning modules in Earth Science in middle- and high-school classrooms. Our grant has included the hiring of 10 graduate fellows to work in coordiation with middle-school teachers in Stark County, Ohio. One fellow, Ms. Vanessa Myers, is doing her thesis work under my supervision, evaluating the efficacy of incorporating real-time weather map discussions in the classoom.

Completed student theses and dissertations

Paul Butke, MA (2006)
The relationship between weather and violent crime in Cleveland, Ohio.
Though there is a clear crime-weather relationship, especially in summer, other than in noted nightlife areas such as the Flats, there is no clear spatial pattern - that is, the areas with more significant crime problems show roughly the same percentage increase as those areas with less significant crime problems.

Doug Cripe, PhD (2005)
The effects of the Pacific North American and North Atlantic Oscillation teleconnections upon Great Lake-Effect Snowfall.
The lakes, remaining unfrozen longer in recent years, are associated with an increase in snowfall that's mostly found in traditional "lake-effect" areas.

Tim Dolney, MA (2003)
The relationship between ambulance response calls for the city of Toronto, Ontario, Canada and extreme heat."
Several recreational locations near Toronto's lakeshore experienced more than a tripling of ambulance calls on days when a heat warning was called.

Wes Kent, MA (2004)
The impact of cloud cover upon major league baseball.
Clear days over a 20-year period are associated with a 7-point reduction in batting average from cloudy days.

Jason Senkbeil, PhD (2007)
The spatial and temporal role of irrigation on daily warm- season precipitation in the Great Plains 1950-2005.
Although irrigation seemed to be a relatively minor player in producing precipitation, results suggesting an influence of irrigation was noticeable across some sites, once larger scale flow was accounted for.