Scott Sheridan, PhD
Kent State University

Research Interests

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Here is a narrative of some of my major research foci over recent years. You can find a list of completed student dissertations and theses, along with my funded grant record, at the bottom of the page. As department chair, my time is more limited than it was before, but I am still eager to talk to potential future graduate students or collaborators. You can see my full list of publications and funding on my vita, and can access many of my publications at Google Scholar. Synoptic Climatology Synoptic climatology, as defined by Brent Yarnal in his 1993 book, 'integrates the simultaneous atmospheric dynamics and coupled response of the surface environment'. Synoptic climatological methods typically aim at identifying the holistic nature of a component or region of the atmosphere. This can mean a collective assessment of the spatial pattern of a single atmospheric variable, or of multiple variables at a given location, although there are many permutations. Interpreting Yarnal’s quote further, synoptic methods can be used to assess climate variability in and of itself, as well as to connect climate variability and trends with a surface environmental ‘response’, and this response can be insect populations, human health, snow cover, or agriculture. Indeed it is the application of our holistic understanding of the atmosphere to a better understanding of the surface environment that many synoptic climatologists assert is at the heart of our discipline. One commonality of many synoptic climatological studies is that they involve the classification or grouping of different types of atmospheric circulation. There are a number of ways in which this is done, using many statistical methodologies, levels of the atmosphere, spatial and temporal domains, and variables analyzed. Most of my synoptic work is based upon work I did initially for my dissertation, in which I redeveloped the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) system. The SSC takes in surface weather observations for a station and classifies them into one of seven weather types. Day-by-day "calendars" of weather types are available for over 800 stations, for periods of up to 80 years. Over 31,000,000 days have been classified. If you're interested in knowing more about the SSC, check out the Spatial Synoptic Classification information page. Starting in 2019, I worked on redeveloping the SSC into a new automated system that reduces human inputs, and is thus more readily usable for larger data sets, whether gridded reanalysis products or GCM output. This new version can be found at the Version 3.0 website. Globally, nearly 2000 stations are available, with over 45,000,000 days categorized into weather types. The SSC has already been utilized as a tool in much research; a bibliography can be found at the link above. Personally, I have worked on weather-type variability across different teleconnections (such as El Nino), the change in weather-type frequencies over time, how the urban heat island varies according to weather type, as well as variability in atmospheric aerosol concentrations across North America. I have also used statistical methods to use GCM output to project future SSC types for the state of California, and am currently working on historical reconstructions as well. Other researchers have incorporated the SSC into assessments of variability in snow cover, snow water-equivalent, transportation, physical activity, forest regeneration, and atmospheric pollution transport, among others. Beyond the weather typing systems, such as the SSC, there are a number of other methods for atmospheric classification of patterns. One technique which we have used frequently in the last several years is self-Organizing maps (SOMs), in which atmospheric patterns are classified in a continuum of patterns along a multi-dimensional grid. My colleague Cameron Lee and I wrote review paper on the method and have been using it in a number of research projects; this has become the standard method we use when categorizing atmospheric circulation patterns in our research. Students of mine have also utilized the synoptic climatological methods in their work. Jason Senkbeil utilized the SSC in his dissertation as part of his assessment of irrigation's influences on precipitation in the Great Plains. He also utilized the SSC in evaluating tree-ring growth in Alabama as a follow up to his master's thesis work. Tom Ballinger has used the SSC as well as other circulation pattern catalogues to assess Arctic sea ice variability and its relationship with North American climate. Cameron Lee used future climate model data in his thesis to predict circulation patterns that are associated with tornadic outbreaks, and has also developed a gridded weather-type classification system similar in philosophy to the SSC. Three current advisees of mine are using self-organizing maps in their research. Rafiq Islam is using SOMs to analyze the variability in the South Asian Monsoon. Tyler Smith and Ryan Adams are using SOMs of atmospheric patterns across eastern North America to analyze cold air outbreaks, and bomb cyclones, respectively. Bioclimatology My main applied climatological interest is in bioclimatology, specifically the impacts of climate upon human health. My main contribution in this regard has been in working on the development and implementation of heat watch-warning systems for more than 50 cities worldwide, including Rome, Toronto, Phoenix, Dayton, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Seoul, and Chicago. These systems are all based on analyzing patterns of how human health in each locale in the past varied by weather conditions. The SSC has been used here, and large differences among the weather types have appeared. From city to city, the oppressive weather type varies. These systems, once developed, can forecast if weather conditions over the next two or three days may fall into one of these "offensive" categories. The forecast output goes to a webpage, which is then read by weather forecasters as well as civic and health agencies. After working on heat warning systems for a number of years, I wondered if people actually listened. To answer this question, thanks to an EPA grant, I was able to interview 900 people over age 65 in Toronto, Philadelphia, Dayton, and Phoenix, to gauge their perception of heat vulnerability. The results showed that while the majority of people knew that there was a heat warning in place, only around half changed their behavior. Moreover, even though people tended to recall more specific advice, few people did anything other than "stay inside." I hope to further explore this issue of vulnerability perception, especially a comparison between urban and rural residents, or among agricultural workers. Over the last several years, I’ve shifted away from work directly in heat warning systems, and more on broad analysis of the weather-health relationship. I've worked with researchers in California and Sweden on different means of assessing future heat-related health problems, with the output from projections of future weather conditions as well as demographic changes. I have also worked with researchers at the New York State Department of Health to evaluate weather-related variability in morbidity outcomes across the state, connecting the SSC and extreme events with variability in hospital admissions due to heat, cold, asthma, and other respiratory ailments. Newer projects with New York State have allowed me to extend this research to look at the concomitant impact of other disruptive events, such as power outages. I’m also particularly interested in exploring how weather-health relationships change over the seasons, as well as from year-to-year. This interest has led to collaborative research on temporal trends in heat- and cold-related mortality. I am currently a co-investigator with Dr. Cameron Lee on a NOAA project exploring temporal trends in extreme biometeorological index events. With the availability of sensors that allow much more personalized data collection than has ever been available before, I am starting to pursue research on personally-experienced environments. The first of these projects involves working with an undergraduate student, combining our bicycle commutes with pollution monitors to explore how exposure varies based on route. A number of my students have looked at climate and health issues for their graduate work. Tim Dolney completed his master's thesis analyzing ambulance call patterns in Toronto on hot days. Paul Butke evaluated the spatial variability of crime across Cleveland in relation to weather conditions. Candace Olszak followed the Kent State football team, evaluating their perceptions of weather and its effects on their game. Michael Allen examined weather-related mortality patterns during the cold season, along with the seasonality of mortality patterns and how they relate to when a season 'begins'. Jeremy Spencer has looked at thresholds that are associated with increases in hypothermia deaths. Brad Austin has looked at how weather conditions are associated with the overall sentiment of tweets. Coastal Water Quality Over the past decade, an emerging research focus of mine has been to examine atmosphere – ocean interactions, in particular with regard to coastal water quality, sea-levels, and nuisance flooding. Working with scientists from NOAA, wehave collaborated on projects that examine atmospheric circulation patterns in the Gulf of Mexico, and their impact on water clarity, chlorophyll levels, and extreme sea-surface temperature events across the region. This has led to two NASA-funded projects that have examining water clarity in both the Gulf of Mexico and the Great Lakes, and assessing how extreme events have affected water clarity, as well as whether trends in water clarity can be related to climate change. I’ve also collaborated on several projects to examine coastal sea levels and their connection with anomalous atmospheric circulations. With sea-level rise, coastal flooding is becoming more frequent in many places, and understanding the atmospheric drivers of these floods is critical. A current NOAA-funded project I’m leading is examining these connections for a number of sites along the US coastline, with the ultimate goal of producing seasonal forecasts. Completed student theses and dissertations Ryan Adams, MA (2017) Bomb Cyclones of the Western North Atlantic Using a new idenfitication model, a climatology of bomb cyclones was created for the western North Atlantic, analyzing temporal trends and variability, as well as teleconnections with blocking events. Michael Allen, MA (2010) The impact of winter weather on human health: a regional approach to understanding vulnerability in the United States Days of high mortality during the winter are typically associated with significant pressure falls, and warming temperatures, with a higher likelihood of precipitation and snow than non-high mortality days. Michael Allen, PhD (2014) An Evaluation of Seasonality through Four Delineation Methods: A Comparison of Mortality Responses and the Relationship with Anomalous Temperature Events As many applied climatological studies have defined seasons a priori, different definitions of season are evaluated and the effects they have on analyzing extreme temperature events and their impacts on human health are studied. Bradley Austin, PhD (2014) Perspectives of weather and sensitivities to heat: Social media applications for cultural climatology Using sentiment analysis on posts to Twitter during the hot summer of 2012, patterns relating overall positive and negative sentiment and their relation to changing weather are uncovered. Thomasa Ballinger, PhD (2015) A synoptic climatological assessment of the relationship between Arctic sea-ice variability and climate anomalies over North America Using several different synoptic climatological methods, connections were shown between the strength and persistence of the Beaufort High and ice variability. Further, ice variability was connected with local and regional climate changes in the northern portions of North America. Paul Butke, MA (2006) The relationship between weather and violent crime in Cleveland, Ohio. Though there is a clear crime-weather relationship, especially in summer, other than in noted nightlife areas such as the Flats, there is no clear spatial pattern - that is, the areas with more significant crime problems show roughly the same percentage increase as those areas with less significant crime problems. Doug Cripe, PhD (2005) The effects of the Pacific North American and North Atlantic Oscillation teleconnections upon Great Lake-Effect Snowfall The lakes, remaining unfrozen longer in recent years, are associated with an increase in snowfall that's mostly found in traditional "lake-effect" areas. Tim Dolney, MA (2003) The relationship between ambulance response calls for the city of Toronto, Ontario, Canada and extreme heat Several recreational locations near Toronto's lakeshore experienced more than a tripling of ambulance calls on days when a heat warning was called. Jason Haley, MA (2011) Climatology of freeze-thaw days in the conterminous United States, 1982-2009 Seasonal patterns and trends are identified, with the largest declines found in some mountain regions. Joe Harwood, MA (2008) Delineation and GIS Mapping of Urban Heat Islands Using Landsat ETM Imagery Wes Kent, MA (2004) The impact of cloud cover upon major league baseball Clear days over a 20-year period are associated with a 7-point reduction in batting average from cloudy days. Wayne Kline, MA (2009) Climatic factors associated with the rapid wintertime increase in cloud cover across the Great Lakes region The magnitude and the timing of the autumnal cloud cover increase across parts of the Great Lakes basin can be clearly associated with monthly teleconnection patterns; temporal trends are less clear. Cameron Lee, MA (2010) The relationship of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns to tornado frequency, and the impacts of climate change Using a new method to predict future synoptic types and connect them to tornado frequency, under different climate change scenarios tornado days become slightly more likely, with a broadening of the tornado season, and a shift to earlier in the spring. Cameron Lee, PhD (2014) The Development of a Gridded Weather Typing Classification Scheme Using a new method to delineate days into synoptic categories based on relative thresholds of temperature and dew point, this classification system is then optimized for use with gridded data and contains a spatial component to smooth out the synoptic classification. Vanessa Myers, MA (2009) Evaluation of real-time weather map discussions in the middle school classroom The inclusion of weather map discussions in the classroom improved a number of aspects of students' knowledge of the weather movement, though it appeared to have little positive impact on their understanding of 'textbook' weather. Candace Olszak, MA (2012) The Impacts of Weather on a Mid-American Conference University Football Team and Players. Perceptions Regarding Weather Though it was a relatively warm football season, players generally toughed it out and didn't feel weather impacted them much. More credibility was given to complaints about hot weather compared with any other conditions. Jason Senkbeil, PhD (2007) The spatial and temporal role of irrigation on daily warm- season precipitation in the Great Plains 1950-2005 Although irrigation seemed to be a relatively minor player in producing precipitation, results suggesting an influence of irrigation were noticeable across some sites, once larger scale flow was accounted for. E. Tyler Smith, MA (2017) The Characteristics of Cold Air Outbreaks in the Eastern United States and the Influence of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Using a new formula to define seasonally-relative cold air outbreaks across the US, a climatology is presented of these events, along with their teleconnections with Arctic circulation. Jeremy Spencer, PhD (2015) The Geography of Hypothermia in the United States: An Analysis of Mortality, Morbidity, Thresholds, and Messaging Using surveys of the web, along with multiple scales of statistical analysis, results show many hypothermia deaths occur at temperatures well above typical criteria; morover, there is little consistency in hypothermia messaging on the web. Funded research Enhancing Climate Preparedness through Geodesign of Urban Green Space Principal Investigator Kent State University, Environmental Science and Design Research Initiative,2018-2019 Health impacts of weather types in Sweden – the context of climatic and demographic change Co-Investigator (PI B. Schumann, Umeå U.) FORMAS (Sweden), 2018-2020 Developing extreme climate change indicators related to human thermal comfort Co-Investigator (PI C. Lee) NOAA CPO, 2017-2020 Using a synoptic climatological framework to assess predictability of anomalous coastal sea levels in NOAA high priority areas Principal Investigator NOAA CPO, 2017-2020 The Development of a Water Clarity Index for the Great Lakes as a Climate Indicator Principal Investigator NASA, award NNX16AH12G, 2016-2019 Detecting and forecasting Climate Effects on Spatial Patterns of Biodiversity and Productivity in West Coast Sanctuaries: A Collaboration with the Marine Biodiversity Observational Network (MBON) Principal Investigator NOAA (Contract EA-133C-15-SE-1454), 2015-16 A synoptic climatological assessment of atmospheric impacts on short-term sea-level variability and its impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast Principal Investigator NOAA (Contract EA-133C-14-SE-3728), 2014 Climate resilience through vacant land strategies and land use adaptation in Cleveland, Ohio Co-Investigator (PI Cleveland Urban Design Collaborative) Kresge Foundation, 2015 Development of a water clarity index for the Southeastern US as a climate indicator Principal investigator NASA, award NNX13AN31G, 2013-2015 One of the final products is a reconstructed historical water clarity index dating back to 1948. An Excel file with the index values, and all predictive parameters, can be found here. Climate variability/ change and the risks for a spectrum of diseases Principal Investigator, Subcontract (New York State Department of Health) Centers for Disease Control, 2009-13 Climatological, epidemiological, and public health justification of a heat wave health warning system for Moldova Co-Principal Investigator (PIs R. Corobov, Odessa Hydrometeorological Institute, K. Ebi) US Civilian Research & Development Foundation, 2008-10 A Spatial Synoptic Classification Approach to Projected Heat Vulnerability in California under Future Climate Change Scenarios Principal Investigator California Air Resources Board, 2008-11 Track 1, GK-12: Inquiry-based approaches to Earth System Science Co-Principal Investigator (PI M. Munro-Stasiuk, Kent State University) National Science Foundation, 2005-10 Monitoring Agricultural Sewage Sludge, Ohio Co-Principal Investigator (PI M. Munro-Stasiuk, Kent State University) U.S. Department of Agriculture / subcontract from U. Toledo, 2008-09 Monitoring biosolids in Ohio Co-Principal Investigator (PI M. Munro-Stasiuk, Kent State University) U.S. Department of Agriculture / subcontract from U. Toledo, 2006-08 Climatic influences on the spatial and temporal variability of aerosols over North America Co-Principal Investigator (PI H. Power, University of Otago, New Zealand) National Science Foundation, 2004-06 Municipal response and public perception of heat-health watch-warning systems: An evaluation of effectiveness Principal Investigator Environmental Protection Agency, 2003-05