Cleves 3NW #55 (Hamilton County) James F Davis - December ended up near normal temps and above normal Precip.This was a very cloudy month.There was only a 13.2 degree difference in max and min temps.

    Cincinnati 5NW #13 (Hamilton County) Ronald E. Rothhaas Jr. - December was a wintry month with snowfall nearly twice normal and rainfall about 2 inches above normal.  The month averaged 2 degrees above normal but this was largely due to widespread cloudcover and precipitation which held nighttime lows to almost 4 degrees above normal while highs were near normal. Highs were at or below freezing on 6 days while lows dropped below freezing on all but 7 nights. Only one night was below 20 with a 19 on the first with light snow cover.  The significant snow of the month fell with steady moderate snow from 7PM on the 4th to 7AM on the 5th giving a storm total here of 5.3 inches and 5 inches on the ground at the 7AM obs.. Metro area snowfall ranged from 3 to 5 inches.  12 days saw at least 1 inch of snow on the ground.  A storm on Christmas Eve began as freezing rain and slowly transitioned to snow showers.  0.3 inches fell on Christmas Eve.  A burst of snow at dawn on Christmas morning left us with a storm total of 1.5 inches and 1 inch of Christmas snow along with slick roads which were generally cleared by mid morning by crews who ended up working the holiday.  Steady rain on the 19th yeilded 1.99 inches of rain.  A steady progression of disturbances at month's end yielded a 2 day total 0f 1.24 inches of rain as 2002 came to an end with steady rain and more in the forecast.  2002 was a very wet doughnut with a very dry summer in the middle.

    Kent 2W #53 (Portage County) Eric E. Wertz - December 2002 saw a more active weather pattern develop with above average monthly snowfall totaling 13.2 inches.  Measurable snowfall was noted on 11 days.  Heavy snows blanketed much of the Buckeye State on Christmas Day as a major winter strom moved through the area with 6.6 inches being measured at Kent 2W.  Even so, total liquid equivalent precipitation of 2.97 inches was normal for the month as were the temperatures.  Glaze was noted on the 11th and 18th while ice pellets occurred on the 11th and 24th.  The snow depth was as deep as 7 inches on the 25th.  There were seven advisories/watches/warnings issued during the month with no thunderstorms days.   

    Kirdon 1N #2 (Wayne County) Ronald Hahn - The first half of December 2002, especially the first 10 days, were colder than normal, but the last part of the month saw some moderation in their El Nino year.  As a result, December averaged slightly below normal in temperature.  Liquid precipitation was also slightly below normal, but snowfall was a little above the December average.  The 3.60 inch of snow which fell Christmas day was the heaviest fall for the 25th in my record.  Years precipitation totaled 35.57 inches, or more than 2 inches below normal. 

    Ottawa 4E #15 (Putnam County) Phil & Bonnie Higley - This time around we started out close to normal reading, but went down below normal quickly....The Major snowfall didn't happen till the end of the month when we got dump on, with 7.0" of snow & Hi winds......But as the month went on, so did the temperature's, up that is.  We ended up with 54 degree's for our Hi temperature on the 31 of Dec.

    Sharonville 2NE #43 (Hamilton County) Mike Moyer - No days this year of temperatures below zero.  December had few days of mostly freezing rain and ice pellets; with one significant snow event (4-5).  Saw a brief mild stretch (18-19) where temperatures climbed into the 50's.  Also had deep low pressure move through on the 25th with a low SLP of 29.46".

    Springfield 2N #1 (Clark County) Dick Groeber - TEMPERATURE: The first third of the month was cold with daytime highs mostly in the 20s and 30s and lows in the teens and 20s caused by dominate high atmospheric pressure.  The temperature readings rose during the remainder of the month as the air pressure fell and precipitation increased.  The low of 14° was recorded early on the 9th.  The high of 54° was recorded during the middle of the month on the 18th and was approached on the 30th.  Overall, the temperatures were above the station 35 year average.  PRECIPITATION: The dominate high pressure which brought in the cold temperatures during the first third of the month also kept conditions dry with only one day of recorded precipitation on the 5th.  That was 1 inch of snowfall.  The bulk of the precipitation (rain, freezing rain, and snow) occurred during the last two thirds.  There were three periods of freezing rain and snow.  The first was the 11th through the 14th which was mostly rain.  The 11th was mixed freezing and snow.  The next was the 17th through the 20th totaling 1.29 inches of freezing rain and mostly rain.  The third was Christmas Eve and Christmas day the 24th and 25th 0.64 inches of precipitation including 0.43 inch from freezing and 0.21 inch from melted 2.5 inches of snow.  The month ends with rainfall.  BAROMETRIC PRESSURE:  The first third of the month dominated by high pressure.  The highest reading of the year, 30.58 inches hg. was recorded on the 3rd and 4th.  The storm system that brought in the Christmas eve-Christmas day ice and snow storm brought in the low pressure of the month at 29.43 inches hg. 

    Thompson 5SW #98 (Geauga County) Vance Lunn - December 2002 was seasonalbly cold with two notable mild spells:  18-20, with a peak temperature of 53.4; and 30-31, with temperatures rising to 48.5.  Snow was on the ground every day of the month with a minimum depth of a trace and a maximum depth of 11 inches.  Most notable event was the Christmas Day Snowsorm which brought 10 inches here.  Also there were two minor freezing rain episodes on the 11th and the 30th.

    Wooster 7N #16 (Wayne County) Jack Sisler - I had normal mean temperatures for December with high temperatures a little below normal and low temperatures a little above normal. Two record lows were established; five degrees on the 3rd and three degrees on the 4th. Liquid precipitation was a little more than half-inch above normal which is the first time since May with above normal precipitation. Snowfall contributed to much of that with a snowstorm on the 25th-26th dropping 6.8" of snow. Snowfall for the month totaled 12.2" which is the highest monthly snowfall since January, 1999.

A = Airport

MONTHLY REPORT compiled by Jack Sisler

Date:  Sun Dec 1, 2002  8:57 am
Subject:  Nov.2002 Climate Summary & Snowfall

Macedonia 2ESE
Summit County

AVG. HIGH TEMP = 45.8 DEG.
AVG.LOW TEMP. = 33.6 DEG.
MONTHLY MEAN TEMP = 39.7 DEG.
SNOWFALL = 6.2"
LIQUID = 2.8"

SNOWFALL 24 HOURS ENDING AT 0830 = 1.2" SNOW DEPTH = 1".

Dan
 
Date:  Sun Dec 1, 2002  5:50 pm
Subject:  November's Weather Statistics for Centerville 1W

Weather statistics for the month of November for Centerville 1W.

High Temp (Date) ... 71o / 10th
Low Temp (Date) ... 19o / 27th & 28th
Mean High ... 48.1o
Mean Low ... 33.2o
Monthly Mean ... 40.7o
Total Precipitation ... 3.14"
Max 24 hr Precipitation (Date) ... 1.54" / 10th
Number of Precipitation Days... 13
Total Snowfall... 1"
Max 24 hr Snowfall (Date) ... 1" / 26th
Max Snow Depth at time of observation ... 1"
High Wind Gust (Date) ... 29 MPH / 30th
Thunderstorm Days ... 1
Highest Barometer (Date) ... 30.38" / 27th
Lowest Barometer (Date) ... 29.37" / 10th
Average High Wind Gust... 17.8 MPH

Robert Flory - KA5RUC
Centerville 1W
Montgomery County
OWON #82
ILN Skywarn OMT405
 
Date:  Sun Dec 1, 2002  7:14 pm
Subject:  Snowiest November in Awhile

Group:

Although my snow totals probably don't compare to those of you "up north", I had 3.0" for the month. It made this November the second snowiest in the last seven years.

Looks like the upcoming week will be another cold one but maybe with not as much "synoptic" snow?

Jack
Wooster 7N
Wayne County
 
Date:  Sun Dec 1, 2002  9:14 pm
Subject:  montly report for Nov. 02

Ave. Hi temperature.........45.8F
Ave. Low temperature......32.8F
Ave. Temperaute...............32.8F
Highest was........................67F on the 10th
Lowest was.........................08F on the 27th
Precip.;...............................2.86" Greatest amount in a 24
hour period, 1.58" on the 10th
Snowfall Total;...................7.7" Greatest amount in a 24 hour
period, 4.2" on the 22nd
Highest Wind Gust............40 M.P.H. on the 10 & 29
Highest Baro.:...................30.19" on the 27th
Lowest Baro.:....................29.08" on the 30th
We had 13 day's with precip. out of 30
One day with a Tornado warning posted!  Which was on the 10th!
4-E
Putnam, Co.

Date:  Mon Dec 2, 2002  12:32 am
Subject:  Monthly summary for November 2002

OWON Number 98 Station Name Thompson 5 SW Month November 2002 Mean Max Temp 44.1 Mean Minimum Temp 33.3 Mean Temp 38.6 Highest Temp 64 Date1 10 Lowest Temp 22 Date2 30 Total Prec 3.77 in. Max 24hr Precip 0.88 in. Date3 10 Number of Precip Days 19 Total Snowfall 16.4 in. Max 24hr Snow 7.3 in. Date4 30 Number of 1+ Snow Days 5 Wind Gust N/A Date5

comment
After a moderately cold first week, a late "Indian Summer" came during the second week. Seasonable cold returned the third week and persisted to the end of the month. Continuous snow cover began on the 22nd with a 4.0 inch fall. A 7.3 inch lake-effect storm came on the 30th. Maximum snow depth for November was 7 inches on the 30th.

Vance Lunn
OWON #98
Thompson 5 SW
 
Date:  Mon Dec 2, 2002  11:42 am
Subject:  snow

Snow began here in toledo, ne lucas, near michigan line @ 10:05 am, with a temperature of 32.... currently @ 11:30 am 28 degrees with snow.... wind N-NE 8.....

Mike Bielski
Toledo 5 NE
NE Lucas Co.
Point Place
 
Date:  Mon Dec 2, 2002  2:55 pm
Subject:  Re: snow

Interestingly, the snow began here at Thompson 5 SW at about the same time, even though we're located on the other side of northern Ohio. As of 2:30 pm, 2.3 inches has fallen since it began this morning and has been moderate to occasionally heavy most of that time. At 2:30 pm there was moderate to heavy snow falling, temp. of 28.9 F, and 7 inches on the ground.

Vance Lunn
Thompson 5 SW
OWON #98
 
Date:  Mon Dec 2, 2002  3:51 pm
Subject:  Snow in University Circle, Cleveland, 44106 moderate to heavy snow here since 2:00; it is now 3:50 PM. On the way here from 1:45-2:15 there was less than 1 mi visibility along the road; the road surfaces were not bad until I got here to University Circle. I see that Bellflower Road (outside my window) is now snow-covered.

I hope you all had a good Thanksgiving.

Regards,
Liz
 
Date:  Mon Dec 2, 2002  4:55 pm
Subject:  SNOW!

Snow started here around 3 p.m. & it is now getting heaver.  We have about .3 of a inch on the ground now.  (4:53 p.m.)  Still come down good.  Alot of vehicles going off the road & road's are cover!  Air temperaute is 27 degree's. Lite winds out of the NNE 4-E
Putnam, Co.

Date:  Mon Dec 2, 2002  6:25 pm
Subject:  snow measurement

The snow has changed from larger flakes to smaller shard-like pieces that stung my face when I was walking back from dinner. I took a total snowfall measurement from the top of an outdoor picnic table; the accumulated snow (which may include snowfall from before midnight) was approximately 3-1/4 inches.

cheers,
Liz
 
Date:  Mon Dec 2, 2002  7:14 pm
Subject:  RE: [OhioWx] snow measurement

Hi, Liz:

Thanks for the report! If you're interested in joining the Ohio Precipitation Network go to the following website:

http://groups.msn.com/OhioPrecipitationNetwork

Follow the instructions that follow.

Hope you had a great Thanksgiving!

Matt Higgins

P.S. 1.1 inches so far at Lodi 2S as of 7 PM this evening and still
snowing lightly.
 
Date:  Tue Dec 3, 2002  8:41 am
Subject:  record low

monday, 12/02/02
The record low temperature for 12/02/02 was 16 in 1985..... At 11:53 pm the temperature dropped to 11 degrees......

Mike Bielski
Toledo 5 NE
NE Lucas co.
Point Place

Date:  Tue Dec 3, 2002  8:46 am
Subject:  record low

tuesday 12/03/02

The record low temperature for today was 16 in 1985.... The temperature dropped to 3 degrees @ 6:54 am..this morning....

Mike Bielski
Toledo 5 NE
NE Lucas co.
Point Place

Date:  Tue Dec 3, 2002  10:21 am
Subject:  Record Low

I established a record low of 5 degrees @2:58 am this morning breaking the previous low of 13 set in 2000. In addition, I had a heavy snow shower that gave me an additional 1.7" since my 6am observation time.

Jack Sisler
Wooster 7N
Wayne County

Date:  Tue Dec 3, 2002  10:25 am
Subject:  Newcomerstown Record Low

At 7:28 a.m. December 3, 2002 Newcomerstown 1S established a new record low reading of 11 degrees. The previous record low was 13 degrees set
December 3, 2000.

Don Keating #106

Newcomerstown 1S

Date:  Tue Dec 3, 2002  11:59 am
Subject:  Low Temperature

Low temperature this morning of +1.9 degrees, recorded at approximately 6:40 A.M.

Larry Huff
Munroe Falls 1SW
Summit County
 
Date:  Tue Dec 3, 2002  12:53 pm
Subject:  Low Temperatures

Low temp. of + 10.8 deg.

Dan
Macedonia 2ESE
Summit County

P.S.SW- continue amidst the partly sunny skies.

Date:  Tue Dec 3, 2002  2:08 pm
Subject:  Snow Showers & Squalls

Hi Group:

You know that you're in a decent lake-effect episode when you see well defined cumulus congestus clouds coming in off the lake. Frequent heavy snow showers and squalls in Lorain county this morning. 3 to 4 inches of new snow has fallen here in Eaton Township since 8 AM. This is a "reverse" lake-effect scenario where the west side is getting it worse than the east side this morning & early afternoon. The fetch as been predominately NE this morning and is beginning to back to the NNW early this afternoon. I wouldn't be surprised to see locally heavy snow bursts continue over western Cuyahoga, Lorain, Medina, northern Ashland, and northern Wayne counties throughout the afternoon.

At the station in the Lodi area this morning I had a morning low temperature of +7.7 degrees. A heavy snow shower was observed between 5:30-6:00 AM that dropped a quick 0.9 inch of snow. Radar has showed periodic heavy snow showers in the Lodi area much of the morning and into the early afternoon.

Be careful driving out there!!

Matt Higgins
 
Date:  Tue Dec 3, 2002  3:34 pm
Subject:  Message from a 2way device

Group, Low temperature recorded in Springfield was 15 degrees. Not a record low. Low for my weather station was 02 degrees set in 1976. The last time it was this cold on this date was in 2000 at 17 degrees. Dick Groeber.
Springfield 2. O.W.O.N. 1.
 
Date:  Wed Dec 4, 2002  2:39 am
Subject:  Re: Snow Showers & Squalls

Since I reciently moved into the heart of lake-effect country,those cumulus congestus clouds offer up a strange sight to me. We get pelted with heavy snow, then a break in the storm reveals a layer of very low and relatively thin clouds and nothing else above them but blue sky or maybe a few very high clouds such as cirrus. Most synoptic events it seems to me have more layers of clouds and a base that is much higher than these lake-effect clouds. Also, while I experienced the lake-effect to some extent in Streetsboro, The cloud cieling seemed to me to be much higher than here in the Thompson- Chardon area.

Vance
 
Date:  Wed Dec 4, 2002  7:29 am
Subject:  Message from a 2way device

Good morning group! The low temperature for Springfield was 15 degrees at 1:21 a.m. tying my station low set in 1990. The high barometer was 30.62 inches or 1036.91 m.b..
Dick Groeber. Springfield 2.
O.W.O.N. 1.
 
Date:  Wed Dec 4, 2002  9:22 am
Subject:  Another Record Low

Group:

I established another record low this morning of 3 degrees @12:30 am. This breaks the previous record of 6 degrees set in 1991.

Considering the average low for the first week of December here is around 26 degrees, this makes the low temperatures the last two mornings around 22 degrees below normal. Brrrrrrrrr!

Jack
Wooster 7N
 
Date:  Wed Dec 4, 2002  9:39 am
Subject:  record low # 3

The low temperature here this morning was 4 degrees.....breaking the old record of 9 set in 1991..

Mike Bielski
Toledo 5 NE
NE Lucas Co.
Point Place
 
Date:  Wed Dec 4, 2002  9:47 am
Subject:  record low # 3

This morning the low temperature dropped to 4 degrees @ 3:46 am....breaking the previous low of 9 degrees set in 1991.....

Mike Bielski
Toledo 5 NE
NE Lucas Co.
Point Place
 
Date:  Wed Dec 4, 2002  10:49 am
Subject:  Newcomerstown Record Low

At 5:52 a.m. December 4, 2002 Newcomerstown 1S established a new record low reading of 9 degrees. The previous record low reading was 10 established in 2000. Current snow cover is just a trace. We have some high to medium layer cloudiness to the south from the southern storm.  I suspect that is one reason we didn't drop too much lower than 9. The other reason... lack of snow cover.

Don Keating #106
Newcomerstown 1S
 
Date:  Wed Dec 4, 2002  2:11 pm
Subject:  Re: Another Record Low

Hi Don,

To the nearest whole inch, I'm down to 1". I was up to 3" (rounded off) yesterday morning. I've had snow cover from a trace to 3" since November 30. Last Winter I didn't have over an inch of snow cover until the second week of January and that was only for about three days. Go figure!

Jack
 
Date:  Thu Dec 5, 2002  9:06 am
Subject:  Message from a 2way device

Good morning group! The snowfall last night in Springfield
totaled 1 inch and melted to .11 inch of water between midnight and
7:30 a.m..
The low baromter was 30.22 inches.
Dick Groeber. Springfield 2.
O.W.O.N. 1.
 
Date:  Thu Dec 5, 2002  9:56 am
Subject:  Hocking Co. Snowfall

Total snowfall at my home in the
Hocking Hills was 4.7". This location
is in northwest Hocking County.
Jim Fry
Rockbridge 4W
OWON #33
 
Date:  Thu Dec 5, 2002  7:17 pm
Subject:  www.fox19.com : Winter and Ocean influences

Ronald Rothhaas (ronbridgemanning@cs.com) has sent you an item from
http://www.fox19.com

2002 - 2003 Winter Weather Outlook
http://www.fox19com/Global/story.asp?s=1032699

Find more items like this at http://www.fox19.com
Copyright 2002 WXIX 

Date:  Thu Dec 5, 2002  7:32 pm
Subject:  SNOW!!!!!!!!!!

I get tired (only jokingly) of listening to y'all in the snowbelt brag, so it's my turn. Last night we here at Cincinnati 5NW were forecast to get 1 to 2 inches of snow. By 10 PM we had 1.3 and moderate snow which continued most of the night (I got little sleep, it was a beautiful night). When it ended at 7 AM we had a winter wonderland of 5.3 inches of new snow. Warm ground and compaction of the snowpack have left us with 3 inches this evening but we have 100% coverage and it is beautiful. Areas southeast oftown had as much as 9 inches. In a normal December we average 3.9 inches and last year was a veritable snow drought so forgive my giddiness.

Ron Rothhaas
Cincinnati 5NW

PS: Aren't these surprise sneak attack snows fun!?

Date:  Fri Dec 6, 2002  2:17 am
Subject:  Re: SNOW!!!!!!!!!!

Ron,

Yea, those surprise storms are nice. The NWS over-estimates what will fall so often that it is nice when they under-estimate once in awhile. You must have gotten the northern edge of that system that's been making the news lately. A similiar thing happened here on Dec. 2, when our forcast was for 2-4 and we ended up with 6.8 inches. Oh yeah, I've had a continuous snow pack since Nov. 22 and measureable snowfall every day except one since Nov. 26. Max. depth so far 11 inches, but if we'd have gotten everything that had been forcast over that time, I think the house would've been buried!

Vance
 
Date:  Fri Dec 6, 2002  6:32 pm
Subject:  Message from a 2way device
 
Hello group! Check this bit of weather history out. Here in Springfield on December 6, 1977 the low temperature was -3 degrees with winds gusting to 36 m.p.h. giving wind chill temperatures to -25 degrees! How cold was it where you are? So you thought it was cold out there now! Dick Groeber.
Springfield 2. O. W. O. N. 1.
 
Date:  Sat Dec 7, 2002  11:24 am
Subject:  Checking Model Forecasts

All,
Next significant synoptic weather system looks to effect the area on Tuesday / Wednesday.The European model developes the low over the Texas Gulf coast during the day Monday and moves it into the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday morning with the mid level closed circulation(low). The AVN & MRF are in agreement with each other but offer a solution that puts a very weak low over northeast Ky.(1019MB) and developes stronger coastal storm which moves from the NE Florida coast northeast to well out to sea  In any case we should receive some snow from this system, especially the folks in S.Ohio.The 500mb short wave will move into the Ohio valley with PVA out a head of it.We'll see what scenario unfolds.If the European solution occurs then, heavier snow is likely over S.Ohio with the stronger lift with the deeper low center.

Dan
 
Date:  Tue Dec 10, 2002  5:03 am
Subject:  Area Forecast Discussion

Barb LaPierre
Middletown OH

***************************
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
309 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2002

HI PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTNDG ACRS OH VALLEY WITH AC/CI STREAMING INTO REGION FROM GULF COAST STATES. WV IMAGERY INDCG UPR LO CENTERED OVER NE TX WITH DVLPG SFC LO OVER FLA PENINSULA. THESE WX FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO PROVIDE INTERESTING WX ACRS FCST AREA TONIGHT INTO WED.

THROUGH THURS NIGHT...GFS/ETA CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN DVLPMNT AND TRACK OF COASTAL LO AND EFFECTS UPR LO WILL HAVE FOR OH VALLEY. IN SHOR TERM...GENERALLY QUIET WX TODAY AS HI PRES RIDGE HOLDING STRONG ACRS REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE AS UPR LO TRACKS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY BY TONIGHT. WEAK SFC LO WITH INVERTED TROF WILL DVLP AND SHIFT INTO TN VALLEY BY THIS EVNG. BOTH MODELS SPREADING MEASURABLE QPF INTO SW COUNTIE  DURING EVNG AND ACRS SOUTHERN 1/3 FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. AM TRENDING TOWARDS GFS SOLN FOR A FEW REASONS...NAMELY THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...AND THAT THE ETA LOOKS TOO OVERZEALOUS WITH QPF AMTS APPCHG 0.5 INCHES ACRS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY 12Z WED.

PCPN LIKELY TO START SOUTH OF CVG AND PMH DURING THE EVNG AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY NEED A FEW HRS FOR LO LVLS TO MOISTEN UP WITH DRY ATMOS IN PLACE. ETA BRINGING A LOT OF WARMER AIR INTO LO LVLS OVERNIGHT WITH UPR LO FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN PREV RUNS...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENT TRACK THROUGH TN AND SE KENTUCKY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES INDCG FZRA POTENTIAL WITH ABOVE FREEZING LAYER BTWN 2-4K OVERNIGHT AND SFC AT OR BLO FREEZING. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VEVAY INDIANA...TO MAYSVILLE KENTUCKY...TO ATHENS OHIO LINE...AND MAY SEE RA/FZRA MIX. FROM CVG EAST TO CHILLICOTHE MORE LIKELY JUST FZRA. WILL LET DAYSHIFT MAKE ULTIMATE DECISION ON NEED FOR ADVISORY OVERNIGHT/ERLY WED.

FZRA POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO DAY/CMH ZONES BY DAYBREAK WED. WILL CONTINUE FZRA WORDING THRU MID/LATE MRNG ONCE SFC TEMPS CLIMB TO 32F OR ABV. PCPN LIKELY TO END WEST TO EAST DURING AFTN HRS AS UPR LO TRACKS INTO WESTERN PA BY WED EVNG. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WED INTO THURS AS HI PRES BUILDS ACRS OH VALLEY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY SPLIT BTWN MAV/FWC THRU THURS AS MET TEMPS APPEAR TOO WARM.

EXTENDED...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FRI FCST AS UPR LO APPCHS FROM CNTRL PLAINS FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT. REMOVED PCPN FOR CVG/PMH ZONES THURS NIGHT INTO FRI AND LEFT MSTLY CLDY ACRS FCST AREA AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF UPR LO.

.ILN...NONE.
RYAN
 
Date:  Tue Dec 10, 2002  11:10 am
Subject:  Re: Area Forecast Discussion

Barb and Group:

I don't know if it will be a surprise or not Barb but it could get interesting.

Was just looking at the 12z (7 am)Dec 10 ETA model for the 7 am time slot for tomorrow and it may be some cause for concern especially for folks in the southern half of the state. I think timing will be the key. The model does show a very weak surface low center over the Kentucky/Tennessee border. Temperatures at the surface should be at or just below freezing but above freezing at the 850mb (5000 feet level)about that time. This means freezing rain/drizzle would be the problem. Precipitation amounts in melted form are to be .1" or less but then it doesn't take much if it's freezing rain.

I am going to go out on my proverbial limb and say folks in the southern half of the state may have some problems. Some of this could go further north but that will depend on how fast surface temps warm up. I wouldn't be surprised to see some advisories go up for parts of the state by this evening.

Anyone else care to go out on their own limb with their analysis?

Jack
Wooster 7N
 
Date:  Wed Dec 11, 2002  12:02 pm
Subject:  Precip - Medina County

The precipitation has just started here in the form of ice pelletts.

12 Noon
Amber Dalakas
Brunswick 2NE
 
Date:  Wed Dec 11, 2002  12:48 pm
Subject:  Beginning of storm @ 44106

University Circle, Cleveland OH 44106:

We had a snowflake here and there from 12:00-12:45 and now, at 12:45 it started to sleet.

Regards,
Elizabeth

 
Date:  Wed Dec 11, 2002  1:21 pm
Subject:  Message from a 2way device

Hello group from Springfield! Ice and snow storm! Melted to .47 inch. Snow measured on snowboard at .98nch. Time: 0430 to 1200 e.s.t.. Dick Groeber. O.W.O.N.
1.
 
Date:  Wed Dec 11, 2002  2:26 pm
Subject:  freezing rain
 
Thompson 5 SW 2:30pm 12/11/02

Freezing rain began around 1pm here. THe temp. had been as high as 34.8 F around 10:30 am but had dropped to just below freezing at about the time the rain started. The temp. has since risen to 33.0 F. With that we currently have light rain and a snow depth of 5 inches.

Vance Lunn
Thompson 5 SW
OWON # 98
 
Date:  Wed Dec 11, 2002  3:28 pm
Subject:  Precipitaiton Event

Group:

A mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow began here about 10am this morning with the temperature at 33 degrees when it began. It's been pretty much all snow for the last couple of hours and as of 3pm I've had .7" snow. Roads are partially snow covered and hazardous.

Jack Sisler
Wooster 7N
Wayne County
 
Date:  Thu Dec 12, 2002  6:53 am
Subject:  MORE TO COME?

Interesting set-up for Friday night as a pool of cold air accompanies another upper level low. Looks like 0.50+ of rain then snow overnight into early Saturday. It's a little early and models differ but it could be interesting again. And, models certainly show no signs of letting up over the next several weeks although it gets warmer in the short term. We're making up for last year's boredom!

Ron Rothhaas
Cincinnati
 
Date:  Fri Dec 13, 2002  6:57 am
Subject:  SNOW

I'm suprised by the lack of posts regarding this dynamic storm system entering the area. Looks like a lot of rain and a tricky snow  forecast. Official forecast is 1 to 3 here but the forecast discussion hints at uncertainty. Also 1 inch plus on the liquid side. Could be less or more snow with quicker changeover. I have read NWS forecasts of 3 to 5 for west-central Ohio. Where is everybody? Where did you go? I'll check Arby's!

Ron Rothhaas
Cincinnati
 
Date:  Fri Dec 13, 2002  6:16 am
Subject:  Re: [OhioWx] SNOW

Yawn.

It's dynamic to me if there's gonna be about a foot or more of snow.

Other than that, its just plain winter wx.

- Patrick.
 
Date:  Fri Dec 13, 2002  9:27 am
Subject:  Re: SNOW

Hi Ron and Group:

I think there is a lot of uncertainty as to what is going to happen which is why I've held off saying anything. Unlike the event that occured a few days ago, I think temperatures both at the surface and at the upper levels are warmer than they were. I think this is why Cleveland NWS has not put out any watches/warnings yet.

The latest models/maps I've seen put a 999mb Low over southern Kentucky by 7pm Friday night and deepen it further to 996mb by the time it gets to southern Pennsylvania Saturday morning. If this holds true I forsee most of the precipitation as being snow except for parts of southeastern where temperatures at the surface and 850mb could be above freezing for awhile before a changover to all snow.

If the track of the Low holds true, temperatures stay close to freezing at the surface and 850mb, and the proverbial saying that the heaviest snow usually falls about 200 miles north of a Low, I'll say a swath of 3-5" of snow from about Dayton northeast to north of Youngstown and 1-3" elsewhere.

I look for Cleveland NWS to put out an advisory/warning before this evening. I, like Ron, would like to hear what everyone else is thinking. (BTW Ron, I'll take a roastbeef, plain)

Jack
Wooster 7N
 
Date:  Fri Dec 13, 2002  10:24 am
Subject:  Re: [OhioWx] SNOW

Hi List... Looking at the 9 am surface map generated by Unisys, I see a sfc low in n-cen MS right now. I also see a troph of low pressure extending ne into se Ohio. I would venture a guess that the low will travel northeastward along the Ohio River in se Ohio, up to 50 miles either side of that line. As far as snow is concerned... no comment. Current temperature here is 34 degrees. I would bet on a mostly rain event though. Oh yea, I'll take White Castle, though the nearest one to me is just off I-77 in Akron. :-)

Don Keating

Date:  Fri Dec 13, 2002  1:30 pm
Subject:  Message from a 2way device

Hello group! Happy friday the 13th! Hopefully it's lucky for you! I'm taking a wait and see attitude on this storm. As of 1:30 p.m. it's raining lightly here in Springfield with a temperature of 35 degrees. The barometer is 29.79 and falling rapidly. It does not impress me as much as the last storm. Dick
Groeber. Springfield 2. O.W.O.N.

Date:  Fri Dec 13, 2002  1:39 pm
Subject:  Re: SNOW

Hi List,

My 2 cents worth on this upcoming storm. It depends on where you live in the State.

Northwest OH: Mainly a snow event. May mix with a little sleet at the onset. Doesn't look too heavy for this part of the State. My wild guess now is about 1 to possibly as much as 3 inches.

Southwest OH: Much trickier forecast. Should start as rain as H8 temps are above freezing and thicknesses at the start of the event should run about 544 dm. Rain should change to sleet and then snow after midnight as colder air wraps in around the LOW. Accumulations should average 2-4 inches with locally heavier amounts (up to 5 inches) in the northern part of this area (near I-70 between the Indiana state line to west of Columbus).

Southeast OH: Mainly a rain event for that part of the State. Towards the end of the event the rain should change to sleet and then snow. Accumulations should range from a dusting up to about 1-2 inches.

Heaviest snow should fall in a band from north of Columbus through Mansfield & Wooster into northern Summit & Portage counties into inland Ashtabula County. 4 to 7 inches is likely in this band. Precipitation may start off as sleet or a mix of sleet and snow, but will change to all snow by late evening. Heaviest snow should fall between 2 AM-8 AM Saturday. H8 temps in this band will be below freezing throughout the event while thicknesses will average about 542 dm at the start (hence the possibility of sleet at the onset). As thicknesses rapidly fall across the State overnight precipitation should change to snow in this area by late evening. The transition from rain/sleet to snow will occur from northwest to southeast across the State.

Gotta run..That's my 2 cents worth!

Matt Higgins
 
Date:  Fri Dec 13, 2002  2:50 pm
Subject: 

If it weren't for the rapid pressure fall here at Newcomerstown 1S, you might not know we're about to get some precip. Current temp is 36 with winds from the ENE @ 5 mph. Pressure is currently 29.73" and falling quickly. Pressure was 29.96" at 10 a.m.

Don Keating #106
Newcomerstown 1S

 Date:  Fri Dec 13, 2002  5:13 pm
Subject:  Message from a 2way device

Group, Rain changed over to in Springfield around 5 p.m.. Rain began around noon and totaled .19 inch. Barometer still falling at 29.65 inches. Temperature at 34 degrees.
Dick Groeber. O.W.O.N. 1.
 

Date:  Sat Dec 14, 2002  12:47 am
Subject:  The 'storm' observations

Well, I think Matt and I both get a pat on the back with this storm. It's 12:40 a.m. Saturday morning, still 36 degrees and mainly rain across most of Ohio except the far western part. Even the snow out there isn't too heavy.

Earlier today I said I thought the low pressure would travel along or 50 miles either side of the Ohio River in southeastern Ohio. I also said it'd be a mainly rain event here. Not bad for a guy who doesn't know what he's talking about. The current 1 hour radar loop from the Charleston, WV site and surface map/conditions show a low with a 988 center near Charleston.

I'll stick my neck out further and say I'd be surprised to see 1" of snow here when all is said and done. Thanks for listening to me compliment myself, lol.

Don Keating

 
Date:  Sat Dec 14, 2002  8:08 am
Subject:  Message from a 2way device

Hi group! The big storm here in Springfield was mostly rain and rain mixed with wet snow with little accumulation. It began around noon friday and ended about 5 a.m. today (saturday). Upto midnight the total was .50 inch. Another .10 inch after with the accumation between midnight and 5 a.m. at only .2 inch. Tempetatures at 33 to 34 degrees during the period with a low barometer of 29.58 inches.
Dick Groeber. O.W.O.N. 1.
 
Date:  Sat Dec 14, 2002  9:04 am
Subject:  Re: SNOW

That's what I mean about you snow belt types. In SW Ohio a foot would not only be quite dynamic but it would also be a record for any day of the month. If you don't mind I'll take an interest in less dynamic storms lest I end up with a big yawn. The daily snowfall record for Cincinnati NWS for December 13 is 4.0 inches in 1945 and the daily rainfall record is 1.64 inches in 1927 so a prediction of 1 inch of rain followed by 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 inches of snow is significant. For those "I told you so" types out there we ended up with a trace of snow and 0.40 rain so the storm did not live up to its advance billing. And the advance billing I refer to was not merely prone-to-exageration media types but also the NWS and NWS forecast discussions.

Ron Rothhaas
Cincinnati
 
Date:  Sat Dec 14, 2002  9:10 am
Subject:  Re: SNOW

Most discussions I read focussed on a lot of uncertainty regarding ppt types and snow amounts but the concensus seemed to be it was a vigorous, dynamic storm. We had quite a pressure drop here but the ppt seemed like it never came together the way they thought. I am glad I got some people talking, though. I was beginning to think I was talking to myself which I do too much of anyway.

Ron Rothhaas
Cincinnati 5NW
 
Date:  Sat Dec 14, 2002  11:55 am
Subject:  Re: [OhioWx] SNOW

It was a rain event here in Middletown. Rain started around 10 am and ended during the early evening. Daytime temp didn't go below 33.

Barb LaPierre
Middletown OH
38 degrees, cloudy
 
Date:  Sat Dec 14, 2002  12:06 pm
Subject:  RE: [OhioWx] The 'storm' observations

Don (and List):

Thanks for the "Pat on the Back", Don, but my forecast was really way off the mark when you consider the entire State.  Where's my 4-7 inches of fluff?  All I ended up with was 0.1 inch of snow and that occurred between 5-8 AM today.  The event began as rain here in the Lodi area.  I had 0.23 inch of rain up until my 10 PM observation yesterday evening.

You should give yourself more credit.  You know more about the weather than you think.  Sometimes intuition is a very valuable tool in weather forecasting.  The models did not do a good job at all forecasting the precipitation transition lines yesterday evening.  If you had any foresight pertaining to the character of this storm (which you did) you had more going for you than a lot of the so- called "professionals" did.  In my opinion, this is what makes the weather fun..trying to outguess what "ma nature" is up to next.

Matt Higgins
Lodi 2S

 Date:  Sat Dec 14, 2002  12:45 pm
Subject:  RE: [OhioWx] The 'storm' observations

Hi Matt;

    If this storm had moved through two weeks ago, I would have said more snow
than rain. However, see how the atmosphere has become warmer than two weeks, or
even a week ago, I went with mostly rain. Turns out as of now (12:40 p.m.) I
still have yet to see a flake of snow from this system.

    My 'guesstimate' on the track of the storm was rather simple. I looked at the SFC map from 7 a.m. yesterday morning, saw that the isobars showed a tendancy for more of a pressure fall in the area I forecasted the low to track, and on top of that, saw they had a troff (correct spelling?) of low pressure entended up into extreme east and southeast Ohio.

    Furthermore, I saw no real cold air at the surface. Temperatures were not at or below freezing until you hit NW OH and SE MI. Hence, I stuck my neck out and went with my prediction of mostly rain. Another thing... the deeper a low becomes, the more it pulls up from the south, in this case, warmer air at the surface and aloft.

    By the way, didn't a portion of NW OH receive 4" of snow? If so, there's your 4-7" of fluff. :-)
 

Just my two cents worth. Thanks for the comments.

Don Keating #106
Newcomerstown 1S

 
Date:  Sat Dec 14, 2002  2:20 pm
Subject:  Re: The 'storm' observations

Don, Matt and Group:

Don, you did better than all of us. I think I put too much confidence in the short-term models instead of using more common sense. Everything was there except for the colder temperatures. Kind of like making Christmas cookies; if you leave one ingredient out they won't come out right

Like Matt,I also only had .1" snow overnight with .12" of rainfall with the temperature only bottoming out at 32 degrees a little after 5am this morning.

Jack
Wooster 7N
 
Date:  Sat Dec 14, 2002  5:46 pm
Subject:  snow report

Well with most of the storm already move off the coast & the snow here ended early this morning.  I can say we here in Putnam, Co. got 1.5" of snowfall, out of this storm.  It's just come in & fall apart.......Like all other storm do. We got up to 36 degree's today with cloudy skies all day & we were down to 32 degree's for our low.  Our winds last night were 12 M.P.H. out of the NNE at 9:30 p.m., but we had a wind gust of 25 for Friday reading's.  But today we only had a wind gust of 16.5 M.P.H.. The Baro. is rising now from 29.68" at a rate of .03" a hr. What do you folks think of us here in N.W.O.(North West Ohio) getting a White Christmas?  I say it's 50-50 right now.
4-E
Putnam, Co.

Date:  Sun Dec 15, 2002  7:24 am
Subject:  November CORN Report

The November Central Ohio Raingage Network from Bob Davis has been posted at: <http://members.tripod.com/~OhioWx/corn.html>

Larry Huff
 
Date: Sun Dec 15, 2002 11:14 pm
Subject: Re: snow report

I thought I'd chime in about that last system for comparison. I got 0.46" rain and melted snow on the 13th-14th. We did get 1.2" of snow here, but at locations within a few miles of here, some snow fell but did not stick, and by the Lake it was mostly rain at the time it was snowing at my house. This variability probably was due to elevation as the temp. here was 33 most of the time. It is 650 feet lower down by the Lake. According to the ODOT weather stations, the temp. there was up to 4 degrees warmer than at my house. The waters of Lake Erie may also have had an influence.

What surprised me was that the snow on the ground down by the Lake from previous events melted so quickly while the snow cover here was well preserved. Although above freezing, the temp. was never above about 40 there.

Vance

Date: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:03 pm
Subject: Snowfall Comparisons With Last Year

Group:

I'd be interested in knowing how everyones snowfall amounts this season (through December 16) compare to last season at this time. I knew I had more this season so far but didn't realize by how much; .2" compared to 8.0". I didn't have any snowfall over an inch until the second week of January last season.

No sign of El Nino around here with mean temperatures below normal
since October.

Jack
Wooster 7N

Date:  Mon Dec 16, 2002  9:42 pm
Subject:  Re: [OhioWx] Snowfall Comparisons With Last Year

Hi Jack;

    That's a good question and a better point. I for one say "Bring on El Nino"!! Snowfall last season (2001-2002) on December 16'th totaled a TRACE. Snowfall this season thus far (2002-2003) on December 16'th is 7.3" !!!

    I'm still sticking to my forecast of the temperature and precipitation pattern of doing a 180 from sometime in the last 10 days of December 2002, or the first 10 days of January 2003. I think we're in for above to much above normal temperatures and normal to slightly above normal precipitation. Remember, I didn't say no snow, just above normal "precip."

Don Keating #106
Newcomerstown 1S

 
Date: Mon Dec 16, 2002 9:51 pm
Subject: Message from a 2way device

Group, From Springfield. My record books
show no measureable snowfall here last year untill just after Christmas. This year I've recorded 4 dates already with a total of 6.3 inches. Looks like the last for a while however because of near to above normal temperatures forecast through the remainder of the month. Dick Groeber. O.W.O.N. 1.

Date: Mon Dec 16, 2002 11:18 pm
Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Snowfall Comparisons With Last Year

We've almost received all the snow so far that we received all last season, so I think we're well on our way to a decent winter. I'm in Columbus, btw. It will warm up very briefly this week. I think everyone had better enjoy it, because there's talk of maybe a decent storm right before Christmas and perhaps some very cold air coming down by the first week of January. We'll see.

Jon

Date: Tue Dec 17, 2002 2:37 am
Subject: Re: Snowfall Comparisons With Last Year

I can't compare since I wasn't here last year. I can say that although the snowfall so far hasn't been especially spectacular, it has been decent, and at 30.4", probably in the normal range for the area.

Vance Lunn
Thompson 5 SW
OWON #98

Date: Wed Dec 18, 2002 5:38 pm
Subject: Re: Snowfall Comparisons With Last Year

Jack,
In a very uneventful , dry winter we didn't pick up any snow until Christmas Eve.We finished with 3.2" for Dec.2001.

Dan
Macedonia 2ESE
Summit County

Date: Wed Dec 18, 2002 5:42 pm
Subject: Re: Weird Weather

Jack & All,
Missouri and Arkansas are getting raked right now with damaging tornadoes! A PDS watch box is up! I can't remember the last time, if ever seeing a PDS watch in December!

Dan

Date: Thu Dec 19, 2002 7:16 pm
Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Re: Weird Weather

Dan and All:

Thats what I thought back in November! Just think, tornado chasing with snow tires and chains on your car!

By the way, did anyone catch the report that came out of Tom Schmidlin's office (KSU) about the safety of being in a car in a tornado as compared to taking refuge in a open ditch. I believe his research (according to the TV report) indicated that there was evidence to support that staying in your car if you meet up with a tornado on the open road is probably just as safe, if not safer than getting into a ditch, which has been the prevailing suggestion over the years. As I understood the TV report he also found that the car may be a safer place than trying to stay in a house trailer during such a storm. I am careful to quote the TV report because you never know how accurate their interpretation is. The article was also in the Kent-Ravenna Record Courier, which most of you don't get. I always kind of wondered about the safety of a ditch, considering the tornado wind and debris, perhaps heavy rain and the possibility of lightning current hitting a metal pipe or structure nearby. I guess it may be like picking your poison, since neither the car or the ditch is a good place to be. Any thoughts?

Gary L
Ravenna

Date: Thu Dec 19, 2002 9:43 pm
Subject: tornado safety report

I fear the point of Tom Schmidlin's article is being lost in the media. It has been widely reported down here and in Columbus and one is left with the impression that the car is the best place to be. My understanding of the article is that the ditch is worse than the car, the car is still dangerous, but use the car to get to a better shelter. I fear that, like the overpass fiasco of the past, people will run to their cars when they see a tornado. Wouldn't that be a tragedy?

Ron Rothhaas
Cincinnati 5NW

Date: Thu Dec 19, 2002 10:50 pm
Subject: RE: [OhioWx] Re: Weird Weather

Dan, Jack, Ron & Group:

Severe weather isn't really all that unusual in the lower Mississippi Valley & Gulf States during the winter season. Remember a few years ago (I think it was in 1997 or 1998) that a major tornado outbreak occurre  over approximately the same area (Arkansas, Missouri, western Tennessee) in January. I believe there were something like 70 tornadoes in that January outbreak. I can also recall a significant tornado outbreak in about the same area in December 1982 that was quite devastating. All I have to say is if conditions are right, WATCH OUT! And when you're dealing with a strong cyclonic circulation, advection of warm, humid, unstable air, and a highly diffluent upper-atmospheric wind profile you'd better pay attention! It really doesn't matter if you live in Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas, Ohio, or Minnesota if the ingredients come together there may be trouble!

In terms of Tom Schmidlin's research on the safety of staying in your car during a tornado, I don't buy it (and I don't mean to be overly critical of Dr. Schmidlin). The main criticism I have is that you don't know what intensity a tornado is when it is approaching you. True, you would be safe in a car if the tornado was producing F0, F1, or weak F2 damage. But if the storm was producing strong F2, F3, F4, or F5 damage you'd be in serious trouble if you were in your car!! Granted, you wouldn't be safe in a ditch either, but I really don't know if I'd like to gamble and potentially be crushed to death in my own car. Unfortunately, you can't tell much about the intensity of a tornado by simply looking at its size and shape. What could tip you off as to the intensity of the storm would be the type of debris observed in the tornado funnel. If you see large amounts of debris swirling in the funnel (like roofing material, timbers, etc.) you might want to figure that you wouldn't be safe in your car (since the chance that the tornado may be an F2 damage producer or stronger may be rather great). These are just my opinions & I certainly hope that none of us are ever put in a position where we have to make this awful decision..car or ditch?!

Matt Higgins

Date: Fri Dec 20, 2002 11:00 am
Subject: RE: [OhioWx] Re: Weird Weather

Re: Schmidlin's research...

I heard part of an interview with him in the news on WTAM 1100 here in Cleveland... He said it is safer to be in a car because then you are able to get to safer shelter, and that being inside a sturdy building is still better than being in a car.

My guess, then, is that what the news folks aren't telling you is he's really saying, [my paraphrase] "Don't just abandon your car immediately when you see a tornado. If you can get to shelter before the tornado gets to you, then get to the shelter rather than waiting for the tornado to find you in a ditch."

Cheers and happy holidays to all,
Liz

Date: Fri Dec 20, 2002 5:11 pm
Subject: Yesterdays Rain & Warm Temp.'s 12-19-02

List,
Picked up .42" of much needed moisture with a high of 54.3 deg.

Dan
Macedonia 2ESE
Summit County

Date: Fri Dec 20, 2002 5:59 pm
Subject: White Christmas?

Group:

Models have been hinting the last few days of a fairly impressive and intenifying storm system moving out of the Louisiana Delta. This mornings GFS model has a 997mb (29.44")Low positioned over southern Ohio Christmas morning.I then continues moving east before a coastal Low takes over

Temperatures again appear to be at a critical level come Wednesday morning. They appear to be right around the freezing level both at the surface and the 850mb level. Liquid amounts look fairly impressive with .5"-1.00" forecast and to be in the frozen form for all of Ohio except for parts of southeast Ohio.

As always, there are still some model inconsistencies from run-to-run especially this far out but they seem to have brought the storm further west but still to the south of Ohio than a few days ago. I would think by the end of the weekend there should be better confidence and consistency with all the models. Jump in everyone.
 
I look at it this way. It gives all of us another chance to give their "personal forecasts". Also, it's been a long time since we've had a decent snow (more than a trace)on Christmas day. Something to keep our eyes on.

Jack
Wooster 7N

Date: Fri Dec 20, 2002 10:31 pm
Subject: A White Christmas?

List;
I think I'll hold off on whether or not we get snow for Christmas until Monday
at the soonest. I'm
already hearing forecasters on TV prediciting a possible snow storm. Geez, what
ever happened to the
days of when 5 days in advance for a winter storm was predicted by saying
"there's a chance of some
rain or snow..."?
Don Keating

Date: Sat Dec 21, 2002 2:54 am
Subject: Re: A White Christmas?

I think there's a good chance unless something really goes different from current forcasts. Snowfall tonight is aproaching the 1 inch mark, and a few patches survived from before that last warm spell, so even if nothing else happened, there would be at least a little snow on the ground-assuming temps do not go much above freezing ( upper 30's is current highest forcast temp. before cristmas). Will we get more? It's looking more like it in the last 12 hours.

Vance

Date: Sat Dec 21, 2002 1:12 pm
Subject: Re: White Christmas?

Jack & list,
Looks like a weak short-wave will move through the Ohio Valley overnight tonight and spread some light snow over Ohio as the long wave pattern continues to re-align with an amplification of the western trough - eastern ridge pattern.This is a "good " pattern.The jet stream is positioned to our south.Keep an eye to the southwest over the next few days!Maybe we can get an ol' Panhandle hook going!!

Dan

Date: Sat Dec 21, 2002 3:08 pm
Subject: Message from a 2way device

Group, For your information. Just heard from the noaa weather radio from Wilmington. Rain for tonight and early sunday and light snow tuesday evening into wednesday for this area. Dick Groeber. Springfield 2. O.W.O.N. 1.

Date: Sat Dec 21, 2002 6:35 pm
Subject: Re: Cars, tornadoes, and Christmas

List:

There is still quite a bit of discussion among meteorologists etc. involving certain tornado safety procedures. The old stand-by that says get in a ditch is still considered a good choice because it gets you below ground level which would put you in significantly reduced wind speed.

That being said, a ditch really only works if it is deep enough to get you below grade, not too broad, with relatively steep walls and is a ditch that will not flood. In a pinch I am not sure you will find this type of ditch handy. If you did, you still run the risk of having significant debris pile on you.

In this part of the world where the tornadoes are usually F0-F2 you might find protection in a car assuming a 2x4 doesn't get pierced through you and the vehicle! Taking shelter in car in Oklahoma might find you in orbit! That being said, almost anything is better than a mobile home.

We still do not know about the potential winter storm for Christmas. The models have been flip-flopping but the trend is toward a faster moving low pressure system that would stay pretty far south and could provide a period of ligh  snow, mainly from Canton and Youngstown on south. Of course it could still end up being a bomb heading toward the lower Ohio Valley for all we know. Stay tuned.

Best wishes to all for Christmas and the New Year!

Jim Kosarik, NWS CLE

Date:  Sat Dec 21, 2002  9:24 pm
Subject:  Message from a 2way device

Group, From Springfield.
The gusty winds of the past couple of days have finally died down. They peaked at 34 miles per hour here. I'd like to know what the rest of you recorded. Dick Groeber.
O.W.O.N. 1.
 
Date: Sun Dec 22, 2002 8:09 am
Subject: Re: Message from a 2way device

Hi Dick:

I had a wind gust of 42 mph @ 9:20pm Friday night when the front went through. The power went out soon thereafter for an hour and winds continued to be gusty all night. Looks like it will continue to be that way.

Jack

Date: Sun Dec 22, 2002 8:48 pm
Subject: Schmidlin's study



Ohio Wx Group,

Tom Schmidlin's study concerning safe places to be during a tornado is not recent news. At the first annual Ohio Severe Weather Symposium presented by the Atmospheric Sciences Program at The Ohio State University in 1997, he was the keynote speaker and he discussed this then.

Shawn Trueman
Scalia Lab for Atmospheric Analysis
Ohio University

Date:  Mon Dec 23, 2002  6:57 am
Subject:  WINTER STORM WATCH CHRISTMAS EVE!
 
Things are getting intersesting for Christmas around here, although certain snowbelt types can go back to sleep since less than a foot is expected.  Many uncertainties with the track make this forecast a nightmare.  Current best guess is pumping out 3 to 5 inches along the I-71 corridor although I suspect that could change significantly.  Track jumped 50 miles north overnight.  If it jumps much further we get rain.  If it settles south watch out SE Ohio.  My guess?  This type of storm has a way of making you look stupid.  Much too early to tell for sure.  I think the watch is prudent.

Ron Rothhaas
Cincinnati
 
Date: Mon Dec 23, 2002 10:35 am
Subject: Winter Storm Forecasts

Ron,
I 've just spent an eye-glazing 1 1/2 hours looking at a variety of weather information..etc.I totally agree with the watch, and just that, WATCH.If you want to pull you hair out , just try to figure this one as it is unfolding!Depending on the model, you may see three to four different solutions.Your best bet on this situation may be to closely monitor the surface conditions on an hourly basis!Here are some general thoughts & observations based on what I've seen:

The cyclonic circulation over the Gr.Lakes will have to weaken and /or gradually shift east to allow the low to have any chance of moving into the Ohio Valley.

The elongated high pressure from Montana to Florida I'm guessing, will split over the mid Mississippi Valley.A col is there now. This will allow a slight troughing( lower pressure) to occur, which may be a path for the low to follow if this conicides with the general pressure falls due to larger scale forcing.

The 850 mb baroclinic zone seems to be forecasted to run from east Texas through Arkansas to Ky.Most of the models show this and place an 850 mb low pressure center somewhere from Ky. to extreme SE Ohio.With this in mind , the surface low will be just to the ESE of the 850 mb low.

At this point it , it looks like S. Ohio has the best chance for heavy snow with the initial overunning warm air advection at 850 mb and then again with more dynamic forcing as the low moves into the region.Remember the initial statement about the Gr.Lakes cyclonic circulation!! Time for breakfast.I just pulled the last hair off my head!!!!

Dan

Date:  Mon Dec 23, 2002  1:04 pm
Subject:  Christmas Forecast

Hi Group:

After looking at the ETA and AVN this morning I must make one comment:  There is about as much discrepancy in the solutions as I've ever seen between the model runs this morning concerning the track of the low pressure area developing over TX.  But I'd figure I would state my opinion.

I think for the vast majority of Ohioans it's going to be a brown Christmas this year.  The ETA solution taking the LOW east-northeast into MS and then northeast into eastern KY and northwest PA is way too far off the mark.  The ETA's been doing a poor job lately and its run to run consistency raises serious doubts as to whether the latest solution will verify.  As Dan stated in his earlier e-mail the baroclinic zone is depressed rather far to the south this morning courtesy of a strong (but filling) cAk vortex over Quebec.  That zone actually runs from approximately the North Carolina coast through the southern TN valley (extreme northern Gulf States) into the developing LOW over TX this morning and this would likely be the conduit for the developing LOW to track.  The solution that seems to have the best run to run consistency and perhaps the best handle as to how the LOW is going to track would be the AVN model this morning.  It's latest run (12Z the 23rd) actually depressed the storm track southward a bit from it's earlier run (00Z the 23rd) tracking the LOW from TX east through the Gulf Coast States into central GA by 8 PM Christmas Eve and then up along and just off the Atlantic Coast Christmas Day.  If this track verifies (and I really think it might) don't expect much snow over Ohio from this storm system.  Only extreme southeast Ohio may see a skiff or small accumulation of the white stuff.

Again, this is just my opinion and the model solutions have been all over the place.  If the LOW decides to take a track that compromises between the ETA and AVN (and we are talking wide limits here!) there could be more snow or freezing precipitation over southern Ohio.  It's too early to tell right now, but all things aside if you are "dreaming of a White Christmas" this year I've got a feeling you're going to be disappointed!
                                                                                                                          
Whether it be White or Brown, I sincerely wish everyone a Happy Holiday Season (Merry Christmas to my fellow Christians!).

Matt Higgins

Lodi 2S

Date: Mon Dec 23, 2002 4:30 pm
Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Christmas Forecast

Hello Everyone;
I'll give ya my opinion on storm track and precipitation tomorrow morning, but for now, I would agree with Matt on this one. That high pressure is pretty strong and stretched out over a long distance. I'll stick my foot in my mout tomorrow morning. :-)
Don Keating #106
Newcomerstown 1S

Date: Mon Dec 23, 2002 8:12 pm
Subject: Re: Winter Storm Forecasts

Dan, Matt and Everyone:

I agree wholeheartedly about the mass confusion with the models. None of them have really agreed since this whole thing started showing up late last week. The model of choice sure has been the GFS model instead of the ETA.

I'm going to go down the middle between the two of you on this one. My reasoning on this is watching the last few runs of the RUC model.Granted it only goes out to +12 hours or so but I'm seeing some pretty good pressure falls forecast in the Ohio Valley area whereas this morning the greater falls were more toward the eastern Tennessee Valley and middle Atlantic states. So I wonder if things are leaning more toward the ETA solution than previously thought?

May not get a handle on this until early tomorrow morning but I'll say 2"-4" in the southern third (greater amount to the west), 1"-3" central third, 1-2" northern third.(I'm kind of pushing for snow for the sake of the kids and grandkids)

If I should forget to mention this later, my best wishes for a happy and safe holiday season and a Happy New Year to all of you. For all you travelers out there, please be careful!

Jack

Date: Mon Dec 23, 2002 9:38 pm
Subject: Message from a 2way device

Group and list, From Springfield.
It looks to me like we're on the northern rim of the system. The Strong high pressure system should limit totals with the higher amounts and an  freezing around the Ohio river south. It should be around 2 to 3 inches here all snow. Ending Christmas morning. Merry Christmas to all! Dick Groeber. O.W.O.N. 1.

Date: Mon Dec 23, 2002 10:57 pm
Subject: RE: [OhioWx] Re: Winter Storm Forecasts

Jack and Group:

I just checked out the latest NGM hot off the wire this evening (10:45 PM). It's pushing the LOW further north and west than its earlier run. I'll have to check out the models in the morning. I may have to adjust my forecast. Right now, I'm beginning to agree with your estimate. This is a very tricky forecast situation!

Matt Higgins
Lodi 2S

Date: Tue Dec 24, 2002 10:58 am
Subject: Winter Storm

All,
Just checked latest ETA run 12Z data.These are the best looking maps I've seen in years for a significant snowstorm for Ohio.A few observations:

The low pressure should deepen rapidly.500 mb PVA,Thermal vort advection and strong diffluence over the surface low will make this baby crank. Keep on eye on the barometers.

The low will begin to cut off over Ohio around sunrise Christmas morning as the secondary response(low) forms as the main vort center moves into southern Va.

This coastal low has the potential to explode as all the previously mentioned conditions will shift with the low as the large scale system moves northeast.

Significant blowing & drifting of snow will begin during Christmas day as the pressure gradient increases between the departing low and the high pressure over the western US.

Lake enhancement of the snow and then true lake effect will contribute to the snow totals over the favored region of NE Ohio.Some areas could receive over a foot of snow from this episode.Get the snow shovels & measuring sticks ready!!!!

Dan

Date: Tue Dec 24, 2002 12:05 pm
Subject: Re: Winter Storm

Dan and Group:

Yes, things look to be on schedule since late last night. Just looked at the 15Z (10 am) RUC model and it's putting the low over southeast Kentucky by around 7pm and over southeast Ohio by 7am Christmas morning.

12-Hour snow accumulations from this run appear to be in the 6"-8" range on a line from Akron to west of Cambridge and points west. The rest of the northern two-thirds appear to be in the 4"-6" range.

Get those new sleds and snow boards ready and let it rip!!

Jack

Date: Tue Dec 24, 2002 12:43 pm
Subject: RE: [OhioWx] Winter Storm

Dan, Jack, and List:

Yep, I concur. It's going to be a BIG ONE and just in time for Christmas!! Models are all coming into agreement with a sizeable LOW tracking from the Gulf States into the eastern Ohio Valley over the next 24 hours. Heavy snow appears likely from the central highlands of north-central OH northward throughout the central and east lakeshore counties and into northeast inland Ohio. I agree with you, Dan, that combination of the synoptic snow plus lake-enhancement could yield totals from this episode of 8-12 inches over parts of the east lakeshore counties and northeast inland Ohio.

Merry Christmas!

Matt Higgins
Lodi 2S

Date: Tue Dec 24, 2002 1:35 pm
Subject: Lows vs. Low

Group,
On an annimated satellite image, how can one tell the differance between an upper level low and a surface low? I have an idea that an upper low is more define than a surface low, is that right?
Thanks,
Rich

Date:  Tue Dec 24, 2002  3:44 pm
Subject:  Pressure Falls

Group:

As Dan mentioned earlier about watching the barometric pressure, on my barograph the pressure has dropped .25" since 10 am and continues to fall rapidly.

Jack
 
Date: Tue Dec 24, 2002 7:56 pm
Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Christmas Forecast


Holiday greetings from Middletown, Ohio, where we're getting bombed with freezing ran (wonder if it will change to snow), "Messiah" is playing on the TV, the homemade honey-baked ham is marinating, and the kitchen smells divine.

Hope you're wrong about the brown Christmas, Matt :-)

Barb " hoping for a white Christmas" LaPierre Middletown, OH 30 degrees, very messy

Date:  Tue Dec 24, 2002  8:06 pm
Subject:  Message from a 2way device

Group, Merry Christmas all from
Springfield! Currently at 8 p.m. Christmas eve there is freezing rain, 30 degrees, northwind at 6 m.p.h., barometer at 29.65 inches and falling. Precipitation began at 6 p.m. totaling .03 inch so far. Data from vantage pro plus. Dick Groeber. O.W.O.N. 1.
 
Date: Wed Dec 25, 2002 9:29 am
Subject: Message from a 2way device

MERRY CHRISTMASS! From Springfield. The barometer is rising rapidly here at 9:30 a.m. indicating the big ice-snow storm is just about finished. Here are my numbers: .47 inch melted ice, 1.7 inch snow melted to .16 water giving a total of .63 inch water. Low barometer at 29.43 inches.  Dick Groeber. O.W.O.N. 1. P.S. This is the first white christmas here since 1995. One inch snowfall then with a depth of 6 inches.

Date: Wed Dec 25, 2002 11:01 am
Subject: snow report

Well the N.W.S. hit this one right on the button.
It started to snow here yesterday right around 9:
p.m. & increase though out the night. By this
morning we had 3-4" of snow on the ground. As
of 11 a.m. it's still coming down but the winds
are NOT as strong......Out of the NNW at 15-18
M.P.H., with wind gust of 33 M.P.H..
Present air temperature is 28F
Baro. 29.36R .03
Hi so far is 29F
Low come in at 26F
4-E
Putnam, Co.

Date: Wed Dec 25, 2002 2:16 pm
Subject: Re: [OhioWx] Digest Number 942

i like to report as of 9am on dec 25 we have had 6 inches of snow

Mike
East Toledo, OH

Date: Wed Dec 25, 2002 3:11 pm
Subject: Message from a 2way device

Group, The snow finally ended here in Springfield at noon. The total was 2.5 inches melted to .21 inches of water. That fell since midnight. It was on top of ice from freezing rain that fell from 6 p.m. to midnight on Christmas eve that melted to .43 inch of water. Total liquid came to .64 inch. Low barometer was 29.43 inches at 2 a.m. today Christmas day. Peak wind gust so far at 28 m.p.h.. Temperature at 30 degrees at 3 p.m.. Dick Groeber. Springfield 2. O.W.O.N. 1.

Date: Thu Dec 26, 2002 1:05 pm
Subject: Re: Lows vs. Low

Rich,
Well Rich it can be difficult depending on the image chosen. For the upper level / mid level low, the Water Vapor loop does a great job.You can also pick up small embedded short wave troughs and vorticity maximums with this. For the surface sometimes the Visible image will "catch" it.It won't if mid or higher level clouds are above it.The best way to pinpoint the surface low is to use a dense network of surface observations.Occasionally, a radar loop will pick up the surface low too.I hope this helps.Have a good day.

Dan

Date: Thu Dec 26, 2002 7:43 pm
Subject: Upcoming Weather Conferences

Group:

The following are a few weather conferences to take place the early part of 2003 some of you may be interested in.

Third Annual National Severe Weather Workshop
February 27 - March 1, 2003
Norman, Oklahoma

The event is sponsored by the National Weather Service, the Central Oklahoma AMS/NWA Chapter, and the Oklahoma Emergency Managers Association. Severe weather experts from across the nation will present the latest techniques for severe weather preparedness and response. Speakers will include NOAA and NWS leadership, broadcast meteorologists and emergency managers, as well as forecasters and researchers from NWS offices, Storm Prediction Center, National Severe Storms Laboratory, and the University of Oklahoma. The workshop will be held at the National Center for Employee Development Marriott Conference Center in Norman, OK. For further information, call 405-579-0771 or visit the website http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/nsww/2003


Seventh Annual Severe Storms and Doppler Radar Conference
March 27-29, 2003
Des Moines, Iowa

Will commence at 4:00 PM on Thursday, 27 March 2003, and adjourn Saturday, 29 March at 6:00 PM in Des Moines, Iowa. It is sponsored by the Central Iowa Chapter of the NWA. The Embassy Suites in downtown Des Moines will host the event; call 515-244-1700 for room reservations. For further information and to register online, please visit the website http://www.iowa-nwa.com

Date:  Fri Dec 27, 2002  12:14 pm
Subject:  Re: Message from a 2way device
 
Dick,

I had 10.0 inches here at Thompson 5 SW. It was a "lake-enhanced" snow where moisture from Lake Erie mixes with moisture from an existing storm to create even more snow. We did not get the expected lake-effect after the storm passed.

Vance
 
Date:  Fri Dec 27, 2002  9:28 pm
Subject:  Re: Message from a 2way device

Dick,

I ended up with 9.0" here in N.Summit County( secondary belt).This is the most snow on Christmas Day since 1995 when 4.3" fell.1995 was a very snowy December here.On the 19th a blizzard hit the area with 13.4" of new snow!!Snow depths reached 17" on the 21st as measurable snow fell on consecutive days from the 18th through the 28th!

Dan
 

 

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